winterwx
What's This?
02/12/2012 23:02
Chance of wintry precip for north Georgia???
Yep…
Will start out as a light wintry mix for most of the area (snow and sleet)… and it will quickly turn to light rain (BOOOOOOO!!!)…
But it’s nice to know that winter is trying to make a comeback!!!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
453 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012
...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE AREA THE LAST TWO DAYS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ENOUGH COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE...IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE WILL
BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND TIMING ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO THE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED
TO CHECK FREQUENTLY FOR FORECAST UPDATES ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE.
* * *
Is there more wintry fun on the horizon after this one? Good question! Looks like there might be another chance or few before we move into spring. Keep your fingers crossed!!!
Yep…
Will start out as a light wintry mix for most of the area (snow and sleet)… and it will quickly turn to light rain (BOOOOOOO!!!)…
But it’s nice to know that winter is trying to make a comeback!!!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
453 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012
...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE AREA THE LAST TWO DAYS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ENOUGH COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE...IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE WILL
BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND TIMING ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO THE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED
TO CHECK FREQUENTLY FOR FORECAST UPDATES ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE.
* * *
Is there more wintry fun on the horizon after this one? Good question! Looks like there might be another chance or few before we move into spring. Keep your fingers crossed!!!
Early Season Winter Weather Event?
11/27/2011 19:31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
651 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011
..EARLY SEASON WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...
PHASE 2...WINTRY WX POTENTIAL...
TO BE CLEAR...AT THIS POINT...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IS BY FAR THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED THIS WEEK BUT NEED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY WINTRY SCENARIO LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE SPOKE FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN COLD CORE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...INSTABILITY
DRIVEN SHRA ARE LOOKING MORE PROBABLE AND THE QUESTION TURNS TO IN
WHAT FORM. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TO -SNSH
FOR MOST OF NORTH GA THROUGH 15Z TUE. THE PROBLEM IS THE SURFACE
WET BULBS WHICH LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE. FEEL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN TIER
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES BUT AREAS WITH BURSTS IN INTENSITY WILL
HAVE GREATER CHANCES FOR FROZEN PRECIP AS WELL. HAVE OPTED TO
INDICATE -SNSH FOR THE NORTHERN TIER...MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS...AND
A MIX FURTHER SOUTH. REGARDLESS...WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING TO STICK. MAIN AREA FOR CONCERN WOULD BE NE
MOUNTAINS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
Let the fun begin!!!
Minor Snow Event for Atlanta
02/09/2011 09:36
Not really expecting too much for this event, but winter storms in the south can always surprise us... I think this map from the Atlanta office of the NWS from this morning is pretty dead on for this event...
I know I’d be a lot more excited about this event in years past. I hope it stays that way for the next couple of years with big events sprinkled with a few minor events!
I know I’d be a lot more excited about this event in years past. I hope it stays that way for the next couple of years with big events sprinkled with a few minor events!
Wintry Slop Overnight?
02/03/2011 09:07
Winter continues with a chance of wintry slop for Atlanta tonight and Friday morning. This will likely be mostly rain with some snow mixing in sometime after midnight. At the moment, no accumulations are expected (and will change back to just rain for Friday afternoon). But wouldn’t it be nice to have a 3-day weekend?
Massive Winter Storm For the Midwest
02/01/2011 09:57
That’s a lot of winter weather!
For the Atlanta area, we won’t see any wintery fun, but we might have a few isolated Thunderstorms later today and overnight. Then winter returns for Weds. with lots wind and temps back in the 40’s during the day and a return to the 20’s overnight.
For the Atlanta area, we won’t see any wintery fun, but we might have a few isolated Thunderstorms later today and overnight. Then winter returns for Weds. with lots wind and temps back in the 40’s during the day and a return to the 20’s overnight.
Rain and Mabye Snow
01/25/2011 10:09
A cold and rainy day for us here in Atlanta with highs in the low to mid 40’s. More rain over night with lows dropping to around 34-35. Tomorrow could see the rain ending as snow for much of the area, however temperatures will remain above freezing, so not expecting any travel problems.
Nice weekend ahead! Sunny and highs nearing 60 for Sunday maybe! Woo hoo!!!
Nice weekend ahead! Sunny and highs nearing 60 for Sunday maybe! Woo hoo!!!
Lookin Like Cold Rain
01/23/2011 12:42
The next storm system sure has a lot of weather folks on edge. All sorts of different solutions being thrown around, but I’m going to go ahead and present my gut feeling on this. I think the most likely scenario is that Atlanta will see a mostly cold rain event Tuesday. Overnight Tuesday, could see some snow mix in, especially northern suburbs of Atlanta with no accumulations expected.
Sorry snow fans, but it looks like we don’t have a good shot with this storm. Of course there is still plenty of time for things to change!
Sorry snow fans, but it looks like we don’t have a good shot with this storm. Of course there is still plenty of time for things to change!
Another Winter Storm?
01/22/2011 13:26
Another winter storm is in the cards for the early work week. Too early to nail down the details, but it could bring wintery precip to Atlanta. Right now it looks like Atlanta is in its favourite place on I-20. Could be snow, rain, or both. Stay tuned!
Brief Wintery Mix Thursday Night?
01/18/2011 15:51
Brief update... There is a chance that the area could see rain changing to a wintery mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Thursday night into Friday morning... However, there is not much in the way of accumulation expected. Maybe a dusting for far north metro, but otherwise, don’t expect a snow day on Friday.
Rainy Monday and ???
01/16/2011 11:00
The great thaw continues Sunday with sun at times and highs near 50. Rain moves in Monday morning and will continue through Tuesday evening. What snow and ice doesn’t melt today will certainly be taken care of by the rain. Hothlanta is quickly returning to just plain old Atlanta.
But will it stay that way? Hmmmm....
Despite many folks (myself include) thinking the later half of January could see a warm up, it seems that winter isn’t ready to throw us a break. Arctic returns for late week with a CHANCE for... you guessed it! Snow...
Here is the end of the forecast period for Atlanta from the NWS:
Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday: A slight chance of flurries. Partly sunny, with a high near 33.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 20.
* * *
And here is the longterm forecast discussion from Peachtree City (Atlanta) NWS. There is a lot of jargon that I’ve tried to define below for those that ask.
/ISSUED 645 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011/
...
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE APPEARS DESTINED FOR THE SE U.S. DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY WED-THU IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT TERM SYSTEM. AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SE
FROM SC CANADA TOWARD THE SE U.S. IN THE DEEPENING NW FLOW THU-FRI.
SUFFICIENT FORCING APPEARS EVIDENT WITH THE DRIVING UPPER SHORT WAVE
THU-THU NIGHT TO SUPPORT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF QPF OF 1.0-1.5
INCH APPEARS WAY OVERDONE GIVEN THAT DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN
REMOVED BY THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. PREFER LIGHTER QPF
DEPICTED BY THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD. STRONG CAA AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING PROVIDE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR -SHSN IN THE NE MOUNTAINS. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING FOR THESE PERIODS. AN INCH OR SO
OF SNOW CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SE STATES
EARLY SAT...THEN MODIFY AND DRIFT EAST BY SUN AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS WITH RESPECT TO
POTENTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. WITH
A REMNANT ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...ANY SUCH SYSTEMS COULD
BRING MORE WINTER WX TO THE AREA AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CAREFULLY. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS JUST COME IN WITH A
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FROM THE 12Z RUN...SHOWING A
WARMER...BUT STILL WITH SOME WINTER WX POTENTIAL DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL REMAIN WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN GFS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND NOT
MENTION ANY WINTER WX OTHER THAN THE -SHSN N GA THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING.
MEX MOS COMES IN COLDER WITH EACH RUN FOR THE FRI-SAT
PERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE
LATE WEEK AIR MASS EMANATES FROM A VERY COLD AIR MASS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SIBERIA. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH
-40C ACROSS SE CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH -16C PUSHING INTO N GA
FRI. ANALOGOUS TO SIMILAR EVENTS...E.G...12 DEC 2010...THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO HIGHS 25 TO 30 N GA AND 35 TO 40 CENTRAL GA
FRI...RECOVERING DURING THE WEEKEND BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST MEMBERS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR
THESE PERIODS.
FINALLY...16 DAY RUN OF GFS SHOWS VERY PERSISTENT DEEP POLAR VORTEX
AND DEEP TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF
THE MONTH. OVERALL THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF WINTER PCPN DURING THIS
PERIOD AS REPEATED SURGES OF ARCTIC/CANADIAN AIR SPILL WELL
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WX = Weather, but you should know that by now!
SHRA = Showers of Rain / Rain Showers
SHSN = Showers of Snow / Snow Showers
PCPN = Precipitation
GFS = Global Forecast System (Main US based global weather forecast model)
ECMWF = European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (aka European Weather Model/“The Euro”)
QPF = Quantitative Precipitation Forecast - How much liquid (or frozen precip if melted down)
CAA = Cold Air Advection - (Advection: the transfer of heat or matter by the flow of a fluid, esp. horizontally in the atmosphere or the sea.)
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING - air is pushed up by mountains
SHORT WAVES - Think of it like energy impulses that could cause precip
SOUTHERN STREAM - Upper level winds that push those SHORT WAVES along. “Southern branch of jet stream”
12Z - Model run for 12:00pm UTC (London Time). 00Z would be midnight UTC. 18Z would be 6pm UTC and so on...
MOS - Model Output Statistics
MEX MOS - Basically the extended forecast MOS for the GFS
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE - it’s jargon, but in the context above, it helps to replace it with “model solution sets”
Those definitions are as quick as I can make them, and some are oversimplified. If you REALLY want to know/understand, then check this site out:
WEATHER PREDICTION EDUCATION
I’ll leave POLAR VORTEX, TROUGH, 850MB TEMPS, and whatever else for you to look up there. Hope this helps!
But will it stay that way? Hmmmm....
Despite many folks (myself include) thinking the later half of January could see a warm up, it seems that winter isn’t ready to throw us a break. Arctic returns for late week with a CHANCE for... you guessed it! Snow...
Here is the end of the forecast period for Atlanta from the NWS:
Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday: A slight chance of flurries. Partly sunny, with a high near 33.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 20.
* * *
And here is the longterm forecast discussion from Peachtree City (Atlanta) NWS. There is a lot of jargon that I’ve tried to define below for those that ask.
/ISSUED 645 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011/
...
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE APPEARS DESTINED FOR THE SE U.S. DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY WED-THU IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT TERM SYSTEM. AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SE
FROM SC CANADA TOWARD THE SE U.S. IN THE DEEPENING NW FLOW THU-FRI.
SUFFICIENT FORCING APPEARS EVIDENT WITH THE DRIVING UPPER SHORT WAVE
THU-THU NIGHT TO SUPPORT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF QPF OF 1.0-1.5
INCH APPEARS WAY OVERDONE GIVEN THAT DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN
REMOVED BY THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. PREFER LIGHTER QPF
DEPICTED BY THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD. STRONG CAA AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING PROVIDE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR -SHSN IN THE NE MOUNTAINS. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING FOR THESE PERIODS. AN INCH OR SO
OF SNOW CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SE STATES
EARLY SAT...THEN MODIFY AND DRIFT EAST BY SUN AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS WITH RESPECT TO
POTENTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. WITH
A REMNANT ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...ANY SUCH SYSTEMS COULD
BRING MORE WINTER WX TO THE AREA AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CAREFULLY. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS JUST COME IN WITH A
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FROM THE 12Z RUN...SHOWING A
WARMER...BUT STILL WITH SOME WINTER WX POTENTIAL DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL REMAIN WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN GFS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND NOT
MENTION ANY WINTER WX OTHER THAN THE -SHSN N GA THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING.
MEX MOS COMES IN COLDER WITH EACH RUN FOR THE FRI-SAT
PERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE
LATE WEEK AIR MASS EMANATES FROM A VERY COLD AIR MASS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SIBERIA. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH
-40C ACROSS SE CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH -16C PUSHING INTO N GA
FRI. ANALOGOUS TO SIMILAR EVENTS...E.G...12 DEC 2010...THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO HIGHS 25 TO 30 N GA AND 35 TO 40 CENTRAL GA
FRI...RECOVERING DURING THE WEEKEND BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST MEMBERS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR
THESE PERIODS.
FINALLY...16 DAY RUN OF GFS SHOWS VERY PERSISTENT DEEP POLAR VORTEX
AND DEEP TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF
THE MONTH. OVERALL THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF WINTER PCPN DURING THIS
PERIOD AS REPEATED SURGES OF ARCTIC/CANADIAN AIR SPILL WELL
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WX = Weather, but you should know that by now!
SHRA = Showers of Rain / Rain Showers
SHSN = Showers of Snow / Snow Showers
PCPN = Precipitation
GFS = Global Forecast System (Main US based global weather forecast model)
ECMWF = European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (aka European Weather Model/“The Euro”)
QPF = Quantitative Precipitation Forecast - How much liquid (or frozen precip if melted down)
CAA = Cold Air Advection - (Advection: the transfer of heat or matter by the flow of a fluid, esp. horizontally in the atmosphere or the sea.)
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING - air is pushed up by mountains
SHORT WAVES - Think of it like energy impulses that could cause precip
SOUTHERN STREAM - Upper level winds that push those SHORT WAVES along. “Southern branch of jet stream”
12Z - Model run for 12:00pm UTC (London Time). 00Z would be midnight UTC. 18Z would be 6pm UTC and so on...
MOS - Model Output Statistics
MEX MOS - Basically the extended forecast MOS for the GFS
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE - it’s jargon, but in the context above, it helps to replace it with “model solution sets”
Those definitions are as quick as I can make them, and some are oversimplified. If you REALLY want to know/understand, then check this site out:
WEATHER PREDICTION EDUCATION
I’ll leave POLAR VORTEX, TROUGH, 850MB TEMPS, and whatever else for you to look up there. Hope this helps!
Hothlanta Thaw Cometh
01/14/2011 09:46
Right now it is a balmy 22 in Midtown Atlanta. What ice is on the roads is still frozen solid. However, today will really begin the thaw for “Hothlanta” with temps reaching the upper 30’s to near 40 under sunny skies. However, there will still be some refreezing tonight with in the low to mid 20’s. Saturday and Sunday continue the thaw with highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Again some refreezing possible Saturday night, but it won’t likely be that much on the roads by then. Still enough of a chance that you should remain cautious through the weekend and especially overnight and until mid morning. Still looks like much needed rain (still in drought, remember?) moves in for Monday. Nothing frozen expected save for far north that may begin as a brief period of freezing rain and sleet before changing to all rain.
This morning, my brother sent me this. Think it about sums it up for most Atlanta folks...
This morning, my brother sent me this. Think it about sums it up for most Atlanta folks...
Coldest Temps of the Season?
01/13/2011 19:07
Most of the Atlanta metro saw highs today above freezing with lots of sunshine. This helped to melt off more snow/ice from the roads, but it wasn’t enough to keep many metro school systems from closing. Overnight many areas will flirt with the coldest temps so far this season with clear skies, little to no wind, and the snow/ice still very much in place. The expected lows tonight are somewhere around 15 for the northern burbs to around 19 on the south side. With today’s melting and roads starting to look “clear” of ice/snow, the dangers of black ice are at its highest for this event. Don’t be fooled in the morning. While many roads have improved and now have long dry and ice free stretches, it only takes a little spot that hasn’t seen direct sun or where water has pooled to cause an accident.
The good news is that tomorrow will see highs near 40 with lots of sun. This should put another large dent in melting the ice/snow from the roads, but it isn’t yet the “all clear”. Lows tomorrow night will be in the lower 20’s, so there will again be areas that will refreeze. Saturday will be sunny with highs in the upper 40’s and overnight lows again below freezing. Sunday will again see sun and highs in the upper 40’s, but clouds will increase late in the day with showers moving in for Monday. Lows Sunday night of around 31-34, but not expecting any frozen issues with warmer air quickly moving in with the precip. I suppose there could be an onset of freezing rain and/or sleet, but it would be very brief. Highs are expected to be in the low 50’s for Monday.
Meanwhile, file this away somewhere... Not a good idea to tackle snow on your roof by starting at the bottom (and/or not knowing what you are doing).
The good news is that tomorrow will see highs near 40 with lots of sun. This should put another large dent in melting the ice/snow from the roads, but it isn’t yet the “all clear”. Lows tomorrow night will be in the lower 20’s, so there will again be areas that will refreeze. Saturday will be sunny with highs in the upper 40’s and overnight lows again below freezing. Sunday will again see sun and highs in the upper 40’s, but clouds will increase late in the day with showers moving in for Monday. Lows Sunday night of around 31-34, but not expecting any frozen issues with warmer air quickly moving in with the precip. I suppose there could be an onset of freezing rain and/or sleet, but it would be very brief. Highs are expected to be in the low 50’s for Monday.
Meanwhile, file this away somewhere... Not a good idea to tackle snow on your roof by starting at the bottom (and/or not knowing what you are doing).
Cabin Fever In Hothlanta
01/12/2011 15:00
AHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!
Neighborhood streets STILL impassible. Not much melting going on today with temps in the upper 20’s with only a little sun every once in a while. Scattered snow flurries have continued pretty much since the mean of the storm ended and will continue into the evening/overnight. Betting school is called off and tomorrow will be another work from home day.
So when will Hothlanta end? Friday afternoon should pretty much do it as temps will reach the 40’s.
I so want one of these shirts:
Neighborhood streets STILL impassible. Not much melting going on today with temps in the upper 20’s with only a little sun every once in a while. Scattered snow flurries have continued pretty much since the mean of the storm ended and will continue into the evening/overnight. Betting school is called off and tomorrow will be another work from home day.
So when will Hothlanta end? Friday afternoon should pretty much do it as temps will reach the 40’s.
I so want one of these shirts:
Winter Storm Video
01/11/2011 22:48
Here is a video I took while getting gas for my generator that I, thankfully, didn’t need...
So When Will It Melt?
01/11/2011 09:49
Light freezing drizzle/fog continues this morning for the Atlanta area. Most of that should end early afternoon.
So how long are we stuck with the messy roads? Some melting should occur this afternoon with highs struggling a degree or two above freezing, but most will refreeze as temps go into the mid-teens this evening. The same will be the story for tomorrow too. “Black ice” is a very real danger over the next couple of days. The best thing to do for now is not to travel at all. Only venture out if you have a pressing need.
Don’t forget that walking on it isn’t much easier either. I’ve already taken at least one spill! Be careful friends!
So how long are we stuck with the messy roads? Some melting should occur this afternoon with highs struggling a degree or two above freezing, but most will refreeze as temps go into the mid-teens this evening. The same will be the story for tomorrow too. “Black ice” is a very real danger over the next couple of days. The best thing to do for now is not to travel at all. Only venture out if you have a pressing need.
Don’t forget that walking on it isn’t much easier either. I’ve already taken at least one spill! Be careful friends!
WOW!
01/10/2011 03:46
Ok... I haven’t seen this sort of thing since 1993. Heavy snow, blowing wind, pelting in the face. Snow EVERYWHERE. This is an unbelievable event. Definitely in the history books this on goes. I’m completely wowed... and it isn’t even done yet!!!!
Atlanta - Less Snow & More Ice?
01/09/2011 12:47
The Weather Service in Atlanta (FFC) has adjusted the forecast slightly... more toward what I was saying yesterday actually... Less Snow for Atlanta and more Ice... YUCK!
1/4” of ice is when trees really start dropping branches and power outages become more common. Remember that if your power goes out, it might not be back on for a day or more. You have until around midnight tonight to still make preparations. Go NOW if you haven’t already!
1/4” of ice is when trees really start dropping branches and power outages become more common. Remember that if your power goes out, it might not be back on for a day or more. You have until around midnight tonight to still make preparations. Go NOW if you haven’t already!
Winter Storm Warning
01/09/2011 09:37
*** Winter Storm Warning from 7pm tonight until 7pm Monday ***
I think that map is pretty dead on for what we can expect (as of now).
Meanwhile, check this facebook group out. I’ve joined their team of forecasters! Excellent group of folks and great forecasts.
Foot's Forecast: Southeast
I think that map is pretty dead on for what we can expect (as of now).
Meanwhile, check this facebook group out. I’ve joined their team of forecasters! Excellent group of folks and great forecasts.
Foot's Forecast: Southeast
Winter Storm Update
01/08/2011 13:32
I’m sure everyone is gathering their provisions today as advised! I still believe it is a wise move.
Here are my latest thoughts on our winter storm...
Latest model runs are still showing Atlanta getting a fairly decent amount of precip. Thinking it begins as light snow tomorrow evening. Overnight, the snow will get a little heavier with accumulations around the Atlanta area from 2 to 4 inches (isolated 6”+) before going over to a brief period of sleet. Sleet might add a little additional accumulations, but it will then quickly change to freezing rain sometime Monday morning. The big question is when this will happen. My current thinking is that it will happen soon enough for the Atlanta area (particularly southern portions) to see some fairly significant icing. Enough ice to cause limbs to fall and power outages that, for some, could last more than just 24 hours. This is why I think that stocking up on some provisions that don’t require cooking is a wise thing to do at this point.
There are still many uncertainties with this storm. I’m of the opinion that no one is going to be really certain until it is actually happening. I think most would agree that Atlanta will see frozen precip, and that at some point we’ll see all three: snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Duration of each and how much are the biggest question marks, and my thoughts above are really just an educated guess. This all changes not only with the track of the low, but also thunderstorms that could form along the coast and in the Gulf. This convection could very well limit the precip farther north. There are many other complications that make figuring out specifics right now very difficult.
I’ll post more thoughts later this evening. If you haven’t already, go get a few things to last you through a couple of days without power.
Here are my latest thoughts on our winter storm...
Latest model runs are still showing Atlanta getting a fairly decent amount of precip. Thinking it begins as light snow tomorrow evening. Overnight, the snow will get a little heavier with accumulations around the Atlanta area from 2 to 4 inches (isolated 6”+) before going over to a brief period of sleet. Sleet might add a little additional accumulations, but it will then quickly change to freezing rain sometime Monday morning. The big question is when this will happen. My current thinking is that it will happen soon enough for the Atlanta area (particularly southern portions) to see some fairly significant icing. Enough ice to cause limbs to fall and power outages that, for some, could last more than just 24 hours. This is why I think that stocking up on some provisions that don’t require cooking is a wise thing to do at this point.
There are still many uncertainties with this storm. I’m of the opinion that no one is going to be really certain until it is actually happening. I think most would agree that Atlanta will see frozen precip, and that at some point we’ll see all three: snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Duration of each and how much are the biggest question marks, and my thoughts above are really just an educated guess. This all changes not only with the track of the low, but also thunderstorms that could form along the coast and in the Gulf. This convection could very well limit the precip farther north. There are many other complications that make figuring out specifics right now very difficult.
I’ll post more thoughts later this evening. If you haven’t already, go get a few things to last you through a couple of days without power.
It's coming!
01/07/2011 10:37
Get ready Atlanta! Major winter storm is coming!
Too difficult to nail down just how much snow or ice right now. The one thing that is nearly certain though is that there will be a storm and it will have frozen precip. North of the city can expect pretty much all snow. The Atlanta metro will probably get mostly snow at first and then a change over to sleet and freezing rain. It’s fairly safe to say that you can expect a “snow day” Monday as travel will be nearly impossible for most of north GA (including Atlanta metro). Should ice accumulations begin to exceed a quarter inch, then you can expect tree limbs falling and power outages. This is a storm to be taken SERIOUSLY. Make sure you have food that doesn’t require cooking (sandwich meats, peanut butter, beer). If outages are widespread, some could be without power until mid-week. HINT: You are wise to hit the grocery store asap.
Of course the storm track can shift and dramatically change things. Atlanta could very well see almost all snow while the icy conditions shift further south (this is what I’m hoping for).
Here is HPC/NWS probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow:
and here are the probabilities of ice accumulation of at least one quarter inch:
I’ll post an expected accumulation map tomorrow.
Too difficult to nail down just how much snow or ice right now. The one thing that is nearly certain though is that there will be a storm and it will have frozen precip. North of the city can expect pretty much all snow. The Atlanta metro will probably get mostly snow at first and then a change over to sleet and freezing rain. It’s fairly safe to say that you can expect a “snow day” Monday as travel will be nearly impossible for most of north GA (including Atlanta metro). Should ice accumulations begin to exceed a quarter inch, then you can expect tree limbs falling and power outages. This is a storm to be taken SERIOUSLY. Make sure you have food that doesn’t require cooking (sandwich meats, peanut butter, beer). If outages are widespread, some could be without power until mid-week. HINT: You are wise to hit the grocery store asap.
Of course the storm track can shift and dramatically change things. Atlanta could very well see almost all snow while the icy conditions shift further south (this is what I’m hoping for).
Here is HPC/NWS probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow:
and here are the probabilities of ice accumulation of at least one quarter inch:
I’ll post an expected accumulation map tomorrow.
Winter Storm Update
01/06/2011 07:39
Here is a brief update on the possible winter storm for Sunday/Monday... The models have trended a little warmer and have pushed the bulk of the snow further north. They also continue to show a very “close call” for a fairly significant ice issue for north GA. This could continue to be an unknown all the way up until the event itself unless there is a dramatic change in the current trends.
Look for the NWS and local media to continue with a mention of snow/rain for now. Some may mention ice/sleet... but absolutely no one is certain at this time.
Personally, I’d say prepare a little early just in case. However, I don’t think there is a need to go overboard just yet... unless of course you are an Auburn fan. Football is serious business in the south as everyone knows, and I’d imagine there have been more than a few generators sold in the last 24 hours to fans unnerved by even the slightest possibility of not having power Monday night. Plan accordingly and check in with weather sources often as we go into the weekend.
Look for the NWS and local media to continue with a mention of snow/rain for now. Some may mention ice/sleet... but absolutely no one is certain at this time.
Personally, I’d say prepare a little early just in case. However, I don’t think there is a need to go overboard just yet... unless of course you are an Auburn fan. Football is serious business in the south as everyone knows, and I’d imagine there have been more than a few generators sold in the last 24 hours to fans unnerved by even the slightest possibility of not having power Monday night. Plan accordingly and check in with weather sources often as we go into the weekend.
Winter Storm?
01/05/2011 17:50
The potential for a major winter storm for the SE is slowly spreading throughout the social nets and local media. The threat begins Sunday and the duration could possibly extend beyond what we typically see. Everything from a major snowfall to a crippling ice storm to absolutely nothing are our multiple choices for this question. Plain old rain could also be an answer, but it is the first one I’m crossing out.
Look for the NWS and local media to be conservative as usual (and for good reason). However, if you’ve been putting off that generator purchase, now is as good a time as any! Especially you Auburn fans...
Look for the NWS and local media to be conservative as usual (and for good reason). However, if you’ve been putting off that generator purchase, now is as good a time as any! Especially you Auburn fans...
Atlanta's White Christmas - 2010
12/27/2010 13:55
The last week has been one heck of a roller coaster ride for this weather geek! But in the end, it all paid off...
My first snowman built on Christmas! I know.... pathetic... he’s tiny... and his nose fell off over night...
This one definitely goes down in the history books, with Atlanta seeing its first White Christmas since 1881!
This has been added to the History section of the site: HERE.
Looking ahead, rumblings of a possible severe weather maker for New Year’s. Then whispers of warmer weather (compared to December’s cold) for January. That doesn’t mean there won’t be any wintery fun though! This has been a very odd La Nina so far this late fall/early winter season. Things continue to look interesting and far from boring going into January.
Wishing everyone a very Happy New Year!
My first snowman built on Christmas! I know.... pathetic... he’s tiny... and his nose fell off over night...
This one definitely goes down in the history books, with Atlanta seeing its first White Christmas since 1881!
This has been added to the History section of the site: HERE.
Looking ahead, rumblings of a possible severe weather maker for New Year’s. Then whispers of warmer weather (compared to December’s cold) for January. That doesn’t mean there won’t be any wintery fun though! This has been a very odd La Nina so far this late fall/early winter season. Things continue to look interesting and far from boring going into January.
Wishing everyone a very Happy New Year!
Snow?
12/11/2010 22:57
Looks like we are in for some really miserable weather tonight... cold, rain, and becoming windy...
However, tomorrow(Sunday) may offer up a few snow showers! MAYBE a dusting for some lucky folks in the Atlanta metro area... Unfortunately, it won’t be enough to create the chaos and disorder that we need for a snow day come Monday. There likely won’t be snow on the ground, but it is going to be really really cold on Monday with temps not making it above freezing. Nice. Then pipe busting cold Monday night, so make sure you take steps to avoid that!
All this cold so early in winter... Does this mean all winter is going to be brutally cold? Probably not... With the current La Nina pattern, we will likely see things trend warmer and drier into January/February, so if you love wintery mischief like me, enjoy these December threats.
However, tomorrow(Sunday) may offer up a few snow showers! MAYBE a dusting for some lucky folks in the Atlanta metro area... Unfortunately, it won’t be enough to create the chaos and disorder that we need for a snow day come Monday. There likely won’t be snow on the ground, but it is going to be really really cold on Monday with temps not making it above freezing. Nice. Then pipe busting cold Monday night, so make sure you take steps to avoid that!
All this cold so early in winter... Does this mean all winter is going to be brutally cold? Probably not... With the current La Nina pattern, we will likely see things trend warmer and drier into January/February, so if you love wintery mischief like me, enjoy these December threats.
Wintry Fun Next Week?
11/29/2010 13:27
Some talk of potential wintry weather next week. Haven’t had time to look at in great detail yet...
And So It Begins...
11/04/2010 09:29
Bring those plants in! And be on the lookout for whispers of snow flurries (maybe far North GA)...
CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MACON
316 AM EDT THU NOV 4 2010
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WATCH COVERS THOSE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM HAMILTON...TO MACON...TO EATONTON...TO LEXINGTON.
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER GEORGIA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FREEZE EVENT
IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND YOUNG TREES.
&&
$$
Issuing Weather Forecast Office Homepage
CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MACON
316 AM EDT THU NOV 4 2010
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WATCH COVERS THOSE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM HAMILTON...TO MACON...TO EATONTON...TO LEXINGTON.
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER GEORGIA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FREEZE EVENT
IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND YOUNG TREES.
&&
$$
Issuing Weather Forecast Office Homepage
Atlanta - Winter Storm Watch
02/11/2010 15:36
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
304 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010
...ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
ON FRIDAY...
GAZ022>025-027-031>039-041>051-053>062-068>076-081>086-094>098-
107>113-120415-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0003.100212T1400Z-100213T0500Z/
FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-
GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-
DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-
TALIAFERRO-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-
PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-
WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-
JOHNSON-EMANUEL-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-PULASKI-
WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...SWAINSBORO...WARNER ROBINS...
DUBLIN...VIDALIA
304 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COST
SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. WITH THE COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE NEAR THE
GROUND AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BY MIDDAY...THE PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF A BUCHANAN TO GAINESVILLE LINE BY THE TIME THE SNOW
ENDS FRIDAY EVENING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
304 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010
...ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
ON FRIDAY...
GAZ022>025-027-031>039-041>051-053>062-068>076-081>086-094>098-
107>113-120415-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0003.100212T1400Z-100213T0500Z/
FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-
GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-
DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-
TALIAFERRO-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-
PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-
WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-
JOHNSON-EMANUEL-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-PULASKI-
WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...SWAINSBORO...WARNER ROBINS...
DUBLIN...VIDALIA
304 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COST
SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. WITH THE COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE NEAR THE
GROUND AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BY MIDDAY...THE PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF A BUCHANAN TO GAINESVILLE LINE BY THE TIME THE SNOW
ENDS FRIDAY EVENING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
Friday Night - Ummm... No...
01/28/2010 23:15
There has been rumblings about frozen fun tomorrow night... But if you are in the Atlanta area, forget about it... Just expect a nasty, cold rain with maybe a sleet pellet here and there... and count your blessings that it will be a cold rain as this is not a snow type set up... we do NOT need an ice storm!!!
NE of town up toward the mountains, that might be another story...
Night y’all!
NE of town up toward the mountains, that might be another story...
Night y’all!
SNOW?!
12/04/2009 10:00
Alright... I’ve been watching this possible SNOW event over the last couple of days... I haven’t really felt that it would pan out for us here in Atlanta.
However... I’m starting to believe...
However... I’m starting to believe...
Welcome to Winter!
12/01/2009 01:07
it’s December 1... the first day of meteorological winter!!!
and it will begin to feel like winter very soon.. more details coming!
and it will begin to feel like winter very soon.. more details coming!
Whispers of Winter Wx?
11/19/2009 08:50
I’ve been so busy with wxRadar, I haven’t really had the chance to do the fun weather stuff! but I’ve been poking around here and there, so here is a brief update for those in North Georgia...
Looks like there are hints of a pattern change at the end of the month into December. The GFS has been giving false hints for a while now, but there has been talk of why this may finally pan out (FINALLY!)... So... look for things to get colder and wetter just in time for the GT/UGA game?!
and the best, I must confess, I have saved for the last (nod to D. Elfman)... there are whispers of wintery weather for the first week of December! hmmm...
yeah yeah, the models always tease us this far out... but it is fun to dream about it anyhow. We shall see!
Looks like there are hints of a pattern change at the end of the month into December. The GFS has been giving false hints for a while now, but there has been talk of why this may finally pan out (FINALLY!)... So... look for things to get colder and wetter just in time for the GT/UGA game?!
and the best, I must confess, I have saved for the last (nod to D. Elfman)... there are whispers of wintery weather for the first week of December! hmmm...
yeah yeah, the models always tease us this far out... but it is fun to dream about it anyhow. We shall see!
Ok, I'm Ready For SNOW
11/11/2009 07:29
Alright... Enough with the rain already... I'm ready for SNOW!!! I've got a really good feeling about this coming Winter here in Atlanta!
Winter's Last Word
04/05/2009 19:27
Looks like we are definitely in for a freeze... along with a shot at a little bit of SNOW?!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
422 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>037-041>049-052>055-057-060830-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-HARALSON-CARROLL-
DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-HEARD-
COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-HENRY-
422 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009
...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT
USHERING IN VERY COLD AIR FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE SHOWERS
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA...MAINLY FROM THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA TO ATHENS AND
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN QUITE MILD RECENTLY AND THE
GROUND IS FAIRLY WARM...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OTHER THAN A DUSTING ON GRASSY
SURFACES. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES
ON THIS SITUATION.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
422 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>037-041>049-052>055-057-060830-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-HARALSON-CARROLL-
DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-HEARD-
COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-HENRY-
422 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009
...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT
USHERING IN VERY COLD AIR FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE SHOWERS
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA...MAINLY FROM THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA TO ATHENS AND
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN QUITE MILD RECENTLY AND THE
GROUND IS FAIRLY WARM...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OTHER THAN A DUSTING ON GRASSY
SURFACES. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES
ON THIS SITUATION.
Drought And Spring Outlook (Updated)
03/05/2009 19:53
Very minor dent made in the drought with the heavy rain/SNOW last week. The outlook (bottom below) calls for some relief for the west side of the state (of Georgia). But I don't think we see much improvement in the drought situation any time soon. At least things are not as bad here as they are in Texas. Wow.
March, April and May look to be drier than normal as we are still stuck in this La Nina pattern from hell. Even worse, the rain we do get may come with more severe weather than "normal" the second half/end of March well into April. Think last year, but shifted out a couple of weeks (remember the Atlanta Tornado?).
I also think we will see some more cold weather too (maybe even another shot at frozen fun?!). A late season freeze in April (the kind that does serious damage to budding trees) would not surprise me either. Don't be fooled into thinking spring is finally here this weekend as temps push 80! Winter isn't quite ready to die... yet...
Enjoy the near "perfect" weather the next couple of days!
March, April and May look to be drier than normal as we are still stuck in this La Nina pattern from hell. Even worse, the rain we do get may come with more severe weather than "normal" the second half/end of March well into April. Think last year, but shifted out a couple of weeks (remember the Atlanta Tornado?).
I also think we will see some more cold weather too (maybe even another shot at frozen fun?!). A late season freeze in April (the kind that does serious damage to budding trees) would not surprise me either. Don't be fooled into thinking spring is finally here this weekend as temps push 80! Winter isn't quite ready to die... yet...
Enjoy the near "perfect" weather the next couple of days!
Georgia SNOWFALL Map
03/03/2009 08:45
The NWS office out of Peachtree City (FFC) has put out a SNOWFALL map for the March 1st storm.
As you can see, the band is very narrow. Typical of an upper level driven system. Those of you who actually got SNOW should be very grateful! At the height of the storm, I had roughly 2 inches on the ground. If it had been below freezing and/or overnight, I'm sure it would have been somewhere closer to 6-8 inches. So those even luckier folks in the greens and oranges could have gotten nearly a foot had the surface conditions been a few degrees colder.
I hope we can see one more SNOWFALL map this year before the misery of Spring and Summer arrives. The odds are not in our favour, but they aren't zero. Keep praying and hoping!
As you can see, the band is very narrow. Typical of an upper level driven system. Those of you who actually got SNOW should be very grateful! At the height of the storm, I had roughly 2 inches on the ground. If it had been below freezing and/or overnight, I'm sure it would have been somewhere closer to 6-8 inches. So those even luckier folks in the greens and oranges could have gotten nearly a foot had the surface conditions been a few degrees colder.
I hope we can see one more SNOWFALL map this year before the misery of Spring and Summer arrives. The odds are not in our favour, but they aren't zero. Keep praying and hoping!
The Memories
03/02/2009 16:21
Photos of yesterday's SNOW event (click to view more):
An interesting time-lapse video of yesterday's SNOW event:
An interesting time-lapse video of yesterday's SNOW event:
Sadly, It Is Over...
03/01/2009 16:24
SNOW is quickly coming to an end from west to east. Rain has been mixing back in with the SNOW as the temp has climbed back up from 33 to 35 as we no longer have the dynamic cooling in place. Expect most of the SNOW to melt before temps go back down. The wind is also picking up and will help dry the roads before nightfall. Unfortunately, work and school are on for tomorrow. GRRRRRR... I'm sure there will be some slick spots though, so please be careful.
I hate seeing melting SNOW. It really is just a sad moment for me. But I am grateful for the SNOW while it lasted... and THUNDERSNOW!!! Just wow! I wouldn't call today epic, but it certainly was memorable.
Got some great pictures today. I will posted them either later tonite or sometime tomorrow.
I hate seeing melting SNOW. It really is just a sad moment for me. But I am grateful for the SNOW while it lasted... and THUNDERSNOW!!! Just wow! I wouldn't call today epic, but it certainly was memorable.
Got some great pictures today. I will posted them either later tonite or sometime tomorrow.
THUNDERSNOW
03/01/2009 15:44
I've heard a few claps of thunder today. I haven't seen/heard THUNDERSNOW since the Blizzard of '93. AWESOME!!!
A Little Late: Winter Storm Warning
03/01/2009 14:07
FFC is a little late issuing this...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED FROM RAIN
TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AS COLD AIR ALOFT FILTERED IN FROM THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE ALREADY ON THE GROUND IN THE WARNED AREAS.
GAZ022>025-027-032>039-042>060-066>071-078-079-089-020500-
/O.UPG.KFFC.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0001.090301T1837Z-090302T0500Z/
FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-
BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-
SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-
TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-
JASPER-PUTNAM-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-HARRIS-
TALBOT-MUSCOGEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...COLUMBUS
137 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO GAINESVILLE AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO WASHINGTON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
AT THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...WITH A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON TELEVISION... RADIO...THE INTERNET OR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO. IF THE STORM SYSTEM OR COLD AIR INTENSIFIES
FURTHER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING AND WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED FROM RAIN
TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AS COLD AIR ALOFT FILTERED IN FROM THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE ALREADY ON THE GROUND IN THE WARNED AREAS.
GAZ022>025-027-032>039-042>060-066>071-078-079-089-020500-
/O.UPG.KFFC.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0001.090301T1837Z-090302T0500Z/
FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-
BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-
SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-
TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-
JASPER-PUTNAM-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-HARRIS-
TALBOT-MUSCOGEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...COLUMBUS
137 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO GAINESVILLE AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO WASHINGTON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
AT THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...WITH A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON TELEVISION... RADIO...THE INTERNET OR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO. IF THE STORM SYSTEM OR COLD AIR INTENSIFIES
FURTHER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING AND WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
Sleet
03/01/2009 09:44
Just had a wild burst of sleet here. Temp is finally coming down at a steady rate now. Hopefully this is the beginning of an epic day!!!
Winter Weather Advisory
02/28/2009 15:45
FFC put out a Winter Weather Advisory!
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
...POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...
.A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
AND EXPOSED SURFACES.
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>075-078>084-
089>096-010445-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0003.090301T1500Z-090302T0500Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-
MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...COLUMBUS...WARNER ROBINS
341 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ADVISORY AREA COVERS MUCH OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUSSETA TO PERRY TO
MILLEDGEVILLE TO WEST OF AUGUSTA.
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE STATE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE CAUSING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW.
THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE A
SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THIS PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE A LAYER
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME OF THE SNOW TO MELT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. GROUND
SURFACES WILL ALSO BE WARM DUE TO THE RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES AND
SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.
HOWEVER...IF A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS IT COULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ON ROADS.
PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON TELEVISION... RADIO...THE INTERNET OR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO. IF THE STORM SYSTEM OR COLD AIR INTENSIFIES
FURTHER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
...POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...
.A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
AND EXPOSED SURFACES.
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>075-078>084-
089>096-010445-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0003.090301T1500Z-090302T0500Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-
MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...COLUMBUS...WARNER ROBINS
341 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ADVISORY AREA COVERS MUCH OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUSSETA TO PERRY TO
MILLEDGEVILLE TO WEST OF AUGUSTA.
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE STATE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE CAUSING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW.
THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE A
SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THIS PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE A LAYER
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME OF THE SNOW TO MELT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. GROUND
SURFACES WILL ALSO BE WARM DUE TO THE RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES AND
SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.
HOWEVER...IF A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS IT COULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ON ROADS.
PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON TELEVISION... RADIO...THE INTERNET OR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO. IF THE STORM SYSTEM OR COLD AIR INTENSIFIES
FURTHER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
SNOW
02/28/2009 11:57
Things are looking good right now for the Atlanta area. Of course this is all subject to change, but let's not think about that right now.
As of the time of this blog entry, I think the Atlanta area will see SNOW around daybreak Sunday morning. The SNOW could be heavy at times in some areas, but the ground is very warm and will limit accumulations. My ball park forecast for accumulations is 0.5-4 inches across the area. Heaviest SNOW band will be very narrow, so it is possible that some may see nothing while 10 miles away gets 4 inches.
Now, some eye candy!!
* * *
The NWS has put "SNOW Likely" in the forecast:
Sunday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
* * *
HPC Snow Accumulation Probability Of At Least 4 Inches:
* * *
Special Weather Statement:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-010200-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA SUNDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN EXIT OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...BEGINNING AS LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA...AND THEN BECOMING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT OVER
WESTERN GEORGIA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA BEFORE PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...CLOSER
TO THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STORM SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...AREAS NEAR COLUMBUS AND AMERICUS COULD SEE A SWITCH TO
SNOW BEFORE AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS CONCERNING ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE GROUND
STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND THE SNOW MELTING AS IT FALLS INTO THE
WARMER AIR NEAR THE GROUND...ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INITIALLY SHOULD
MELT. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND IN THE LOW 40S OVER AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON. HOWEVER...AS THE COLDER AIR PRESSES EAST
AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD RESULT IN
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A CORDELE TO LOUISVILLE LINE COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES
SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HOWEVER...IF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
OCCUR...ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD FALL ON
ROADWAYS. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CORDELE TO LOUISVILLE LINE WILL SEE
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE TELEVISION
OR RADIO STATION...FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR
ADVISORIES ON THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.
* * *
The Weather Channel:
Let's hope it all pans out! Heck, let's hope it's epic and we get hammered!!!
As of the time of this blog entry, I think the Atlanta area will see SNOW around daybreak Sunday morning. The SNOW could be heavy at times in some areas, but the ground is very warm and will limit accumulations. My ball park forecast for accumulations is 0.5-4 inches across the area. Heaviest SNOW band will be very narrow, so it is possible that some may see nothing while 10 miles away gets 4 inches.
Now, some eye candy!!
* * *
The NWS has put "SNOW Likely" in the forecast:
Sunday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
* * *
HPC Snow Accumulation Probability Of At Least 4 Inches:
* * *
Special Weather Statement:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-010200-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA SUNDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN EXIT OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...BEGINNING AS LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA...AND THEN BECOMING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT OVER
WESTERN GEORGIA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA BEFORE PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...CLOSER
TO THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STORM SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...AREAS NEAR COLUMBUS AND AMERICUS COULD SEE A SWITCH TO
SNOW BEFORE AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS CONCERNING ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE GROUND
STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND THE SNOW MELTING AS IT FALLS INTO THE
WARMER AIR NEAR THE GROUND...ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INITIALLY SHOULD
MELT. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND IN THE LOW 40S OVER AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON. HOWEVER...AS THE COLDER AIR PRESSES EAST
AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD RESULT IN
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A CORDELE TO LOUISVILLE LINE COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES
SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HOWEVER...IF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
OCCUR...ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD FALL ON
ROADWAYS. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CORDELE TO LOUISVILLE LINE WILL SEE
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE TELEVISION
OR RADIO STATION...FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR
ADVISORIES ON THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.
* * *
The Weather Channel:
Let's hope it all pans out! Heck, let's hope it's epic and we get hammered!!!
Nail Biting Begins
02/27/2009 23:27
Models are all over the place with the potential SNOW storm. Thankfully, we will soon be out of the "model madness" and into "nowcasting". Things should be a bit more clear in the morning. Well, as clear as they can be with an ULL.
Stay sane!
Stay sane!
SNOW Now In NWS Forecast For Atlanta
02/27/2009 14:13
FFC has now put SNOW in the forecast grids for the Atlanta area:
Saturday Night: A chance of rain before 1am, then rain and snow likely. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday: A chance of rain and snow before 11am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
* * *
Of course there is no mention of accumulations yet (I'm betting they won't until tomorrow - *if* there is actually still the chance of accumulations). Sunday's forecast says back to all rain, but that too remains to be seen.
Latest model runs are still good for the Atlanta area (in that we aren't out of the running). This could be epic, major disappointment, or mildly amusing. Nothing is off the table yet.
Keep hope alive!
Saturday Night: A chance of rain before 1am, then rain and snow likely. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday: A chance of rain and snow before 11am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
* * *
Of course there is no mention of accumulations yet (I'm betting they won't until tomorrow - *if* there is actually still the chance of accumulations). Sunday's forecast says back to all rain, but that too remains to be seen.
Latest model runs are still good for the Atlanta area (in that we aren't out of the running). This could be epic, major disappointment, or mildly amusing. Nothing is off the table yet.
Keep hope alive!
So... Is It Going To SNOW?!?
02/27/2009 08:57
There is the potential for very heavy rains and severe storms over the next 24 hours. But the really big question is "Is it going to SNOW"?!?
Unfortunately, the answer isn't clear. But as of RIGHT NOW, I think it will. How Much? I think 2-6 inches is not out of the question. However, the ground is very warm and temps will be near or above freezing. So I don't believe we'll see that much SNOW actually "stick".
Of course all of this could change by this evening. Knowing our recent luck, the odds are good it will change to someone else getting SNOW and Atlanta gets nothing. Although things could change in our favour and we get half a foot or more. We really won't know for sure until it happens, but dreaming of the threat is half the fun! So for now, life is good!
Just as a tease, here is a graphic generated by the 6z run of the NAM... shows roughly 8 inches for Atlanta (but don't count on it):
Keep hope alive! Pray, meditate, flush ice cubes down the toilet. Do whatever. LET IT SNOW!!!
Unfortunately, the answer isn't clear. But as of RIGHT NOW, I think it will. How Much? I think 2-6 inches is not out of the question. However, the ground is very warm and temps will be near or above freezing. So I don't believe we'll see that much SNOW actually "stick".
Of course all of this could change by this evening. Knowing our recent luck, the odds are good it will change to someone else getting SNOW and Atlanta gets nothing. Although things could change in our favour and we get half a foot or more. We really won't know for sure until it happens, but dreaming of the threat is half the fun! So for now, life is good!
Just as a tease, here is a graphic generated by the 6z run of the NAM... shows roughly 8 inches for Atlanta (but don't count on it):
Keep hope alive! Pray, meditate, flush ice cubes down the toilet. Do whatever. LET IT SNOW!!!
Heavy Rain & Severe Storms
02/26/2009 23:17
Heavy rain and the potential for severe storms will be the story over the next 36 hours. Severe storms are already showing up in AK, TN, and MS.
HPC shows nearly 5 inches of liquid precip for the Atlanta area over the next 5 days. Most of that falling tomorrow into Saturday.
Of course the other big story is the potential Southeastern SNOW storm. Models still show a storm, but as expected, each run shows a different area getting slammed. I'd say anyone from the Mississippi River to the East Coast has a shot. We'll (hopefully) narrow things down a little better tomorrow. Keep hope alive!!!
HPC shows nearly 5 inches of liquid precip for the Atlanta area over the next 5 days. Most of that falling tomorrow into Saturday.
Of course the other big story is the potential Southeastern SNOW storm. Models still show a storm, but as expected, each run shows a different area getting slammed. I'd say anyone from the Mississippi River to the East Coast has a shot. We'll (hopefully) narrow things down a little better tomorrow. Keep hope alive!!!
Update: 12z NAM & GFS Still Good
02/26/2009 11:56
12z runs of both NAM and GFS still show a SNOW storm. Too early to get into specifics, but as of now, someone looks to be getting a good dumping in the SE. Let's just hope that includes Atlanta!!!
Cautiously Optimistic
02/26/2009 09:30
Ok... The upcoming possibility is very complicated. It involves a cold-core upper level low. So the forecast will be very tricky even up to the event itself (if it even happens).
Here is a snippet of what the GFS is showing as of the 6z run:
Here is a snippet of what the NAM is showing as of the 6z run:
So you can see, the GFS and NAM are pretty close in agreement on the placement of the ULL. If things unfold anywhere close to this, someone in the deep south is going to get a good SNOW. Even more interesting, this critter takes its time moving out! But remember, this is still days off. There is plenty of time for it to disappear a la Groundhogzilla...
Let's hope the 12z runs continue the show!
Here is a snippet of what the GFS is showing as of the 6z run:
Here is a snippet of what the NAM is showing as of the 6z run:
So you can see, the GFS and NAM are pretty close in agreement on the placement of the ULL. If things unfold anywhere close to this, someone in the deep south is going to get a good SNOW. Even more interesting, this critter takes its time moving out! But remember, this is still days off. There is plenty of time for it to disappear a la Groundhogzilla...
Let's hope the 12z runs continue the show!
Miracle Or Despair
02/26/2009 00:38
More interesting model runs for this weekend...
Will there be a miracle? Or will there be utter despair? I'm going to bed now and hope for the best. More in the morning...
Will there be a miracle? Or will there be utter despair? I'm going to bed now and hope for the best. More in the morning...
The "S" Word?
02/21/2009 16:23
Yes. There is SNOW in the forecast this evening. Too bad it will be a non-event. There is indeed a chance that we might see a brief period of SNOW, but it won’t be heavy or last very long.
A brief dusting for the northern parts of Atlanta at the very best. Reality is more like a brief tease that gets you excited with a quick slap in the face as you see the sky quickly clearing.
Winter 2009 has just been an evil, cruel b!tch. It has only made me bitter and grumpy. It will not be missed! Only 283 days (roughly) until I MIGHT have hope again.
A brief dusting for the northern parts of Atlanta at the very best. Reality is more like a brief tease that gets you excited with a quick slap in the face as you see the sky quickly clearing.
Winter 2009 has just been an evil, cruel b!tch. It has only made me bitter and grumpy. It will not be missed! Only 283 days (roughly) until I MIGHT have hope again.
Cold Returns
02/19/2009 08:06
The cold returns for the next couple of days. Though it will be a mostly useless cold. I haven’t really talked about it, but the models were showing a possibility of SNOW for this weekend. Of course those possibilities have now gone the way that every other &*%^$@ possibility has this lame winter 2009. Rinse, Repeat. Die La Nina, you stupid b&$^&%, die.
He Who Must Must Not Be Named...
02/17/2009 21:26
Something which cannot be named has shown up today in the models. However, we can’t talk about it. We all know what happened last time.
Whatever Happened To Wintertime Gulf Lows?
02/15/2009 23:27
Most substantial snowfalls for Atlanta are associated with storm systems that form in and track along the northern Gulf of Mexico. These SNOW producing Gulf lows were more common back in the 80’s into the early 90’s. (It really did SNOW more when I was a kid!)
Significant SNOW producing storms for Atlanta generally fall into two different categories.
1.) The first type (and best since the SNOW actually sticks) forms after a significant arctic front moves through. The storm develops on the stalled boundary of the arctic air in the gulf and tracks toward the NE. With this type of storm, the coverage of SNOW can be across a fairly large area.
SNOW JAM ’82
I was just a little boy when this happened, and I don’t remember much about it. However, I have heard the stories for as long as I can remember. Heavy SNOW started falling just before rush hour on Tuesday, January 12, 1982. Many commuters who started home never made it with their vehicles. Some were forced to stay the night at their place of work. Cold air was definitely in place for this event. The previous two days saw lows BELOW ZERO! I don’t think it gets anymore Winter than this...
I-85 and Peachtree Road (Amtrak Station) - Atlanta Snow Jam ’82
* * *
2.) The second type is a cold core upper level low. This type of storm can pull in cold air from the upper atmosphere and advect to the surface. The SNOW can be very heavy with this type but is generally confined to a very narrow band. It is also interesting to note that with ULL’s it can be fairly warm at the surface (well into the 40’s) and still SNOW.
LATE SEASON SNOW - MARCH 1983
A cold core low dumped 8 inches of SNOW on Atlanta on March 24, 1983. The band was very narrow, but Atlanta wound up in the bulls-eye!
Of course the “Gulf Low to End All Lows” was the “Super Storm” of 1993. I remember the “Storm of the Century” very well, but I’ll save that for a post next month (near the anniversary).
The pattern of the last decade(+) has not favored SNOW storms. I hope to do a future post on the cause of this, and if there is any hope that this horrible pattern will end.
Here’s to the return of the Wintertime Gulf Low!!!
Significant SNOW producing storms for Atlanta generally fall into two different categories.
1.) The first type (and best since the SNOW actually sticks) forms after a significant arctic front moves through. The storm develops on the stalled boundary of the arctic air in the gulf and tracks toward the NE. With this type of storm, the coverage of SNOW can be across a fairly large area.
SNOW JAM ’82
I-85 and Peachtree Road (Amtrak Station) - Atlanta Snow Jam ’82
* * *
2.) The second type is a cold core upper level low. This type of storm can pull in cold air from the upper atmosphere and advect to the surface. The SNOW can be very heavy with this type but is generally confined to a very narrow band. It is also interesting to note that with ULL’s it can be fairly warm at the surface (well into the 40’s) and still SNOW.
LATE SEASON SNOW - MARCH 1983
A cold core low dumped 8 inches of SNOW on Atlanta on March 24, 1983. The band was very narrow, but Atlanta wound up in the bulls-eye!
Of course the “Gulf Low to End All Lows” was the “Super Storm” of 1993. I remember the “Storm of the Century” very well, but I’ll save that for a post next month (near the anniversary).
The pattern of the last decade(+) has not favored SNOW storms. I hope to do a future post on the cause of this, and if there is any hope that this horrible pattern will end.
Here’s to the return of the Wintertime Gulf Low!!!
The End?
02/12/2009 18:19
I’m beginning to accept and make peace with the fact that Winter 2009 may end without a Winter event in Atlanta. I won’t say that I’ve completely abandoned hope. But, the second half of February no longer resembles what the long range was showing a couple of weeks ago.
It's Never Going to SNOW in Atlanta Ever Again
02/09/2009 09:35
At least it seems that way...
When was the last time we saw measurable SNOW in Atlanta? Well, believe it or not, it wasn’t terribly long ago. The last time there was actual SNOW on the ground in Atlanta was January 19th of last year. It didn’t stick around for very long though.
Here are a few pics from that event:
Here is a time-lapse movie of the event:
So... When will it SNOW again in Atlanta? I hope soon. Things don’t look good though. Spring-like weather will continue to be the story for at least another week. We are quickly running out of time!
When was the last time we saw measurable SNOW in Atlanta? Well, believe it or not, it wasn’t terribly long ago. The last time there was actual SNOW on the ground in Atlanta was January 19th of last year. It didn’t stick around for very long though.
Here are a few pics from that event:
Here is a time-lapse movie of the event:
So... When will it SNOW again in Atlanta? I hope soon. Things don’t look good though. Spring-like weather will continue to be the story for at least another week. We are quickly running out of time!
Cold, Dry, Warm, Boring...
02/04/2009 08:56
It was very cold this morning in Midtown Atlanta. Temperature bottomed out at 17, with another cold one expected tonight. However, we warm up nicely as we go into the end of the week. Even though I hate spring and summer, I must admit I am looking forward to a cool and beautifully weekend. With temps in the low to mid 60’s and sunny, it could only be better if it were 26 with heavy SNOW.
Speaking of SNOW... Doesn’t look like we have a shot at seeing any wintery fun anytime soon. The “buzz” continues that we might enter a more favorable pattern after Valentine’s Day. I’m not too optimistic, and I’m slowly coming to accept that my favorite time of year is quickly coming to a close. Soon we will be talking about severe weather threats, and I’ll begin the long countdown to Football and Fall.
Speaking of SNOW... Doesn’t look like we have a shot at seeing any wintery fun anytime soon. The “buzz” continues that we might enter a more favorable pattern after Valentine’s Day. I’m not too optimistic, and I’m slowly coming to accept that my favorite time of year is quickly coming to a close. Soon we will be talking about severe weather threats, and I’ll begin the long countdown to Football and Fall.
Outlook for February
02/02/2009 12:36
Will February be another wasted month for winter weather? It certainly isn’t starting off with much promise.
This week shows nothing interesting outside of maybe a few flurries tomorrow. And it looks like boring will describe the weather well into next week.
Beyond Valentine’s Day, long range models have shown some potential. There are whispers that the second half of February on in to March could be “interesting”. A slightly negative NAO coupled with a recent stratospheric warming event (SSW) could open the gates to the arctic again. All we need now is a moisture flow.
Unfortunately, moisture will be hard to come by. The Pacific has not been kind to us for some time now. And this horrible, multi-year drought in the Southeast is a direct result of conditions in the Pacific. Even worse, that evil “La Nina” is rearing her ugly head again and growing in strength. I’m becoming more concerned that this is going to be another bad year for the Desert Southeast.
So... My outlook for the last half of February. I think there will be one or two threats of winter weather. But those threats will be the same old story and heartbreak. The models will tease and then take away on into March. Rinse, Repeat.
I really believed that Atlanta would see at least one winter weather event this year. However, I’m having serious doubts now.
UPDATE: Check out this depressing item:
YUCK!!!
This week shows nothing interesting outside of maybe a few flurries tomorrow. And it looks like boring will describe the weather well into next week.
Beyond Valentine’s Day, long range models have shown some potential. There are whispers that the second half of February on in to March could be “interesting”. A slightly negative NAO coupled with a recent stratospheric warming event (SSW) could open the gates to the arctic again. All we need now is a moisture flow.
Unfortunately, moisture will be hard to come by. The Pacific has not been kind to us for some time now. And this horrible, multi-year drought in the Southeast is a direct result of conditions in the Pacific. Even worse, that evil “La Nina” is rearing her ugly head again and growing in strength. I’m becoming more concerned that this is going to be another bad year for the Desert Southeast.
So... My outlook for the last half of February. I think there will be one or two threats of winter weather. But those threats will be the same old story and heartbreak. The models will tease and then take away on into March. Rinse, Repeat.
I really believed that Atlanta would see at least one winter weather event this year. However, I’m having serious doubts now.
UPDATE: Check out this depressing item:
YUCK!!!
The Big Nothing
02/01/2009 10:42
So... What happened to our big SNOW storm? Everyone has been talking about it. What happened?
It was never there. Everything was simply a fantasy in the computer models.
However, it seems that a large number of folks took it and ran with it. Everyone loves a good “Storm of the Century”. The headlines over on accuweather continued to show “Groundhog Day Monster Storm” even after it was clear that the trends did not favor it. Finally, everyone has backed out while trying to save as much face a possible.
I got caught up in the hype as much as everyone else. I’m very disappointed and let down. Oh well.
Meanwhile, there is a little light in the darkness. A small flake of hope for the ending weeks of Winter 2009. I’ll post more on that soon.
It was never there. Everything was simply a fantasy in the computer models.
However, it seems that a large number of folks took it and ran with it. Everyone loves a good “Storm of the Century”. The headlines over on accuweather continued to show “Groundhog Day Monster Storm” even after it was clear that the trends did not favor it. Finally, everyone has backed out while trying to save as much face a possible.
I got caught up in the hype as much as everyone else. I’m very disappointed and let down. Oh well.
Meanwhile, there is a little light in the darkness. A small flake of hope for the ending weeks of Winter 2009. I’ll post more on that soon.
Bye Bye January
01/31/2009 09:27
Today is the last day of January 2009. A memorable January, this has not been. As we banish this wasted January off to the annals of boredom, I pray that February offers some redemption for winter 2009.
Unfortunately, the first days of February don’t really offer us much.
The “storm” that has been the buzz for most of the past week has all but fallen off most model runs (at least for us anyhow). The pieces are still there, but they just don’t come together as the models so evilly teased us with earlier. Moisture is limited in most recent runs, and we will be lucky to even see much in the way of rain.
There are some hints that we could see a passing Flurry or four late Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday. It wouldn’t surprise me if we actually saw a brief dusting in some places. However, the chances of an actual widespread Atlanta SNOW storm are pretty much off the table now. Of course if anything changes, you know I’ll post it right away. Miracles do happen but don’t bet on one.
After the non-event for early this week, February looks to continue the same old story of little in the way of wintery fun. The only glimmer of hope is that the models continue to be all over the place (i.e. anything is possible), and there is still a slightly negative NAO (see picture below). February still has potential to offer something exciting, but my expectations are low.
Unfortunately, the first days of February don’t really offer us much.
The “storm” that has been the buzz for most of the past week has all but fallen off most model runs (at least for us anyhow). The pieces are still there, but they just don’t come together as the models so evilly teased us with earlier. Moisture is limited in most recent runs, and we will be lucky to even see much in the way of rain.
There are some hints that we could see a passing Flurry or four late Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday. It wouldn’t surprise me if we actually saw a brief dusting in some places. However, the chances of an actual widespread Atlanta SNOW storm are pretty much off the table now. Of course if anything changes, you know I’ll post it right away. Miracles do happen but don’t bet on one.
After the non-event for early this week, February looks to continue the same old story of little in the way of wintery fun. The only glimmer of hope is that the models continue to be all over the place (i.e. anything is possible), and there is still a slightly negative NAO (see picture below). February still has potential to offer something exciting, but my expectations are low.
Frustration & Disappointment...
01/30/2009 17:08
*** SIGH ***
You know... I don’t ask for much... Just some SNOW for Atlanta...
Seriously, what the #$@* gives?!? The last couple of days, the model runs look promising. Not much changed until today. Now they have mostly gone to giving us nothing.
At least I never preached that it was going to be the Blizzard of ’93 all over again. Unless this thing comes back, accuweather is going to look like a bunch of fools (ok, some say this happened long ago)...
Meanwhile, here is the bad news from FFC:
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW OVER FLORIDA AND UP THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON
MONDAY ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE DRY
SLOT SLIPPING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL GREATLY
HINDER THE SNOW THREAT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. BASICALLY DRY AIR PUSHES
UP FROM THE SW AS THE COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING. STILL
EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER NORTH GA WHERE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION FURTHER SOUTH HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...HAVE TWEAKED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE ALL AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT... AND ONLY MENTION RAIN OR SNOW
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEWNAN TO MADISON TO WASHINGTON
LINE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES TO THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE.
AT THIS TIME...WITH MODEL TRENDS BACKING AWAY FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT... HAVE DECIDED NOT TO DO A
WEB BRIEF FOR EM`S THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...EM`S AND RESIDENTS OF
CONCERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
AND ANY SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS THAT MAY BE ISSUED IN REFERENCE
TO THE SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT. IF THE SITUATION CHANGES FOR THE
WORSE...A WEB BRIEFING WILL BE SCHEDULED FOR EM`S NO LATER THAN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
You know... I don’t ask for much... Just some SNOW for Atlanta...
Seriously, what the #$@* gives?!? The last couple of days, the model runs look promising. Not much changed until today. Now they have mostly gone to giving us nothing.
At least I never preached that it was going to be the Blizzard of ’93 all over again. Unless this thing comes back, accuweather is going to look like a bunch of fools (ok, some say this happened long ago)...
Meanwhile, here is the bad news from FFC:
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW OVER FLORIDA AND UP THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON
MONDAY ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE DRY
SLOT SLIPPING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL GREATLY
HINDER THE SNOW THREAT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. BASICALLY DRY AIR PUSHES
UP FROM THE SW AS THE COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING. STILL
EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER NORTH GA WHERE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION FURTHER SOUTH HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...HAVE TWEAKED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE ALL AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT... AND ONLY MENTION RAIN OR SNOW
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEWNAN TO MADISON TO WASHINGTON
LINE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES TO THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE.
AT THIS TIME...WITH MODEL TRENDS BACKING AWAY FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT... HAVE DECIDED NOT TO DO A
WEB BRIEF FOR EM`S THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...EM`S AND RESIDENTS OF
CONCERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
AND ANY SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS THAT MAY BE ISSUED IN REFERENCE
TO THE SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT. IF THE SITUATION CHANGES FOR THE
WORSE...A WEB BRIEFING WILL BE SCHEDULED FOR EM`S NO LATER THAN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
Not Much Has Changed
01/30/2009 09:31
Not much has changed since yesterday. The models continue to drift here and there, but they still show the storm.
The hype for this thing continues to an almost ridiculous level - especially over on accuweather.com. They are calling it the “Groundhog Day Monster Storm” and have mentioned the March 1993 Blizzard in comparison. I don’t think this will be that epic, but I do think some are going to get slammed by some heavy SNOW. No one knows where just yet, but TN is looking pretty right now.
As of now, I still stick by the forecast I made yesterday. However, I have added a timeframe: Atlanta will see rain starting late Sunday night. The rain will continue through the day on Monday with a brief change over to light SNOW after 6-8pm. The light SNOW will taper off to flurries after midnight. Areas north of I-20 and west of I-85 could see a dusting to half-inch, while the extreme north-western suburbs could see up to an inch. (Of course, you know I’m praying that Atlanta gets a foot of SNOW!)
The hype for this thing continues to an almost ridiculous level - especially over on accuweather.com. They are calling it the “Groundhog Day Monster Storm” and have mentioned the March 1993 Blizzard in comparison. I don’t think this will be that epic, but I do think some are going to get slammed by some heavy SNOW. No one knows where just yet, but TN is looking pretty right now.
As of now, I still stick by the forecast I made yesterday. However, I have added a timeframe: Atlanta will see rain starting late Sunday night. The rain will continue through the day on Monday with a brief change over to light SNOW after 6-8pm. The light SNOW will taper off to flurries after midnight. Areas north of I-20 and west of I-85 could see a dusting to half-inch, while the extreme north-western suburbs could see up to an inch. (Of course, you know I’m praying that Atlanta gets a foot of SNOW!)
Nail Biting Begins
01/29/2009 11:29
The models continue to show a very borderline setup for an Atlanta SNOW Storm this Monday (into Monday night). Unfortunately, we are on the wrong side of that border at this time.
As of now, it looks like the surface low that forms in the Gulf of Mexico is tracking a little too far north. The low then curves to the north-east a little too soon. This puts Atlanta into the forecast that has made my skin crawl since I was a child: “A cold rain”.
But... There is still some hope. The system could track a little more to the south and then curve to the north-east a little later. Or the system could deepen and pull in more cold air. Neither of these scenarios look likely, but they aren’t completely out of the realm of possibility.
If I had to make an “unbiased” forecast right now, this would be it: Atlanta sees mostly rain with a brief change over to light SNOW. Areas north of I-20 and west of I-85 could see a dusting to half-inch, while the extreme north-western suburbs could see up to an inch.
As of now, it looks like the surface low that forms in the Gulf of Mexico is tracking a little too far north. The low then curves to the north-east a little too soon. This puts Atlanta into the forecast that has made my skin crawl since I was a child: “A cold rain”.
But... There is still some hope. The system could track a little more to the south and then curve to the north-east a little later. Or the system could deepen and pull in more cold air. Neither of these scenarios look likely, but they aren’t completely out of the realm of possibility.
If I had to make an “unbiased” forecast right now, this would be it: Atlanta sees mostly rain with a brief change over to light SNOW. Areas north of I-20 and west of I-85 could see a dusting to half-inch, while the extreme north-western suburbs could see up to an inch.
Early Next Week?
01/28/2009 11:09
We’ve had a couple of model runs that agree with an “interesting” event Monday and Tuesday of next week. Even better, there is some agreement on a series of events. If we miss out on one, there is a chance for another soon after.
I’ll post some more specific details on this threat tomorrow morning (if it continues to show).
I’ll post some more specific details on this threat tomorrow morning (if it continues to show).
From Texas to Maine
01/27/2009 16:22
Check out this map. Winter weather warnings and watches from the Mexican border all the way up to Maine!
But not a thing for us here in Atlanta... As usual...
But not a thing for us here in Atlanta... As usual...
Return of the Cold
01/27/2009 09:47
We still have not had a winter storm threat in Atlanta. It is a near certainty that January will now end with nothing more than just a few flakes of SNOW and sleet peletes.
However, the cold air is returning for February!
The NAO is flipping back to negative. This will bring back the trough to the East that pulls down the cold air. The problem will be if can get any moisture in here. The last time this happened, we were stuck in a NW flow that kept us cold and dry. Let’s hope February is a little kinder to us SNOW lovers! Winter is not over yet!
However, the cold air is returning for February!
The NAO is flipping back to negative. This will bring back the trough to the East that pulls down the cold air. The problem will be if can get any moisture in here. The last time this happened, we were stuck in a NW flow that kept us cold and dry. Let’s hope February is a little kinder to us SNOW lovers! Winter is not over yet!
From Boredom to Flat Out Angry!!!
01/25/2009 18:50
I should have known better.
The brief SNOW tease is all but gone now. The Euro never caught on and the 12z and 18z GFS show nothing close to a SNOW storm now.
**sigh**
What gives?!? Why can’t Atlanta get a SNOW storm? Why is it so hard now? It seems we had at least one or two every year as a kid back in the 1980’s...
D*&^%$@!! I want SNOW. This is unacceptable, and I demand to speak with the manager!
***more sighing***
I hate the GFS. I hate life. I’m now going to go curl up in the fetal position, listen to Morrissey, and feel all pathetic.
The brief SNOW tease is all but gone now. The Euro never caught on and the 12z and 18z GFS show nothing close to a SNOW storm now.
**sigh**
What gives?!? Why can’t Atlanta get a SNOW storm? Why is it so hard now? It seems we had at least one or two every year as a kid back in the 1980’s...
D*&^%$@!! I want SNOW. This is unacceptable, and I demand to speak with the manager!
***more sighing***
I hate the GFS. I hate life. I’m now going to go curl up in the fetal position, listen to Morrissey, and feel all pathetic.
Boredom Over?
01/25/2009 12:36
Wow... Funny how quickly things can change in the land of Weather!
I was beginning to believe January would fade with nothing more than a mere “Trace” of SNOW. However, the GFS suddenly put SNOW on the table for the end of the week. Not just a dusting, but 6in+!!!
Of course, my elation has been quickly extinguished by the 12z GFS run. Everything has shifted south. Grrr.
While this may not be the one... my gut feeling is that Atlanta will see at least one newsworthy winter event this year.
Keep your fingers crossed!!!
I was beginning to believe January would fade with nothing more than a mere “Trace” of SNOW. However, the GFS suddenly put SNOW on the table for the end of the week. Not just a dusting, but 6in+!!!
Of course, my elation has been quickly extinguished by the 12z GFS run. Everything has shifted south. Grrr.
While this may not be the one... my gut feeling is that Atlanta will see at least one newsworthy winter event this year.
Keep your fingers crossed!!!
Atlanta May See a Flake or Five
01/19/2009 15:39
I was hoping for a miracle this afternoon, but it doesn’t look like it will come to pass. Not that there was much of a chance to begin with... However, Atlanta may see a few SNOW showers later this evening into tonite... but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw nothing at all.
Meanwhile, the outlook for the coming days is not good for us winter weather folks. We warm up this weekend, and warmer than normal will be the story for the final days of January.
Time is running out for the elusive “SNOW Jam 2009”... It’s painful to watch a January go into the books without a major winter event. Hopefully February will offer up a few more chances before I begin the long countdown to Fall 2009. Here’s to hoping!
Meanwhile, the outlook for the coming days is not good for us winter weather folks. We warm up this weekend, and warmer than normal will be the story for the final days of January.
Time is running out for the elusive “SNOW Jam 2009”... It’s painful to watch a January go into the books without a major winter event. Hopefully February will offer up a few more chances before I begin the long countdown to Fall 2009. Here’s to hoping!
Today May Get More Interesting
01/19/2009 08:25
Things might get more interesting later today! I sure hope it does! Regardless, our friends to the east are definitely going to be in for a pleasant surprise!!! More later...
So... What's next?
01/18/2009 20:48
So... Is there anything in the next week or so to get excited about? Good question!!!
There are TWO events that are showing up on the models:
1.) Tomorrow evening into Tuesday... The GFS is showing a small amount of moisture over the Atlanta area in the form of SNOW... As of now, it wouldn’t be any more than just a dusting...
2.) Next Weekend... There have been whispers of an actual “SNOW Storm” showing on the European model... I have yet to see these actual maps, but the sources are reputable... Meanwhile, the GFS continues to show a “January thaw” and nothing but rain for next weekend... we shall see...
While I’m completely disappointed that January is nearly over, and we have seen little in the way of winter fun... I do have a good feeling (for now) that winter still might offer us some frozen delight! Keep hope alive!!!
There are TWO events that are showing up on the models:
1.) Tomorrow evening into Tuesday... The GFS is showing a small amount of moisture over the Atlanta area in the form of SNOW... As of now, it wouldn’t be any more than just a dusting...
2.) Next Weekend... There have been whispers of an actual “SNOW Storm” showing on the European model... I have yet to see these actual maps, but the sources are reputable... Meanwhile, the GFS continues to show a “January thaw” and nothing but rain for next weekend... we shall see...
While I’m completely disappointed that January is nearly over, and we have seen little in the way of winter fun... I do have a good feeling (for now) that winter still might offer us some frozen delight! Keep hope alive!!!
Yesterday's Non-Event...
01/18/2009 20:18
Here is a short video/picture of the VERY brief SNOW in Atlanta yesterday:
As I pretty much expected... Yesterday was a complete non-event... but I was disappointed none the less... All we got was a brief SNOW flurry followed by a few periods of light sleet...
As I pretty much expected... Yesterday was a complete non-event... but I was disappointed none the less... All we got was a brief SNOW flurry followed by a few periods of light sleet...
Cloudy. A Near 100% Chance of Disappointment
01/17/2009 12:35
It looks like the current threat for wintery weather will be a complete disappointment. A classic south-eastern, miserable experience. It is cold and very dry. The precip will fall through this dry air and will initially freeze (evaporative cooling). It will eventually reach the ground and things become more saturated, teasing us with very light sleet. This sleet will quickly turn to light rain. The rain will end before the next shot of cold air comes in... and we will get another tease with a brief flake or two of SNOW... and it will be that annoying, look up and see a clearing sky with a stray flake or two...
Here is a graphical representation of this torture:
Don’t get too excited about the little SNOW chances shortly afterward. They are very light and will probably fall off future GFS runs anyhow.
I hate this winter so far... I HATE IT!!! And I’m quickly losing hope going forward...
Here is a graphical representation of this torture:
Don’t get too excited about the little SNOW chances shortly afterward. They are very light and will probably fall off future GFS runs anyhow.
I hate this winter so far... I HATE IT!!! And I’m quickly losing hope going forward...
Flip Flop... But Don't Get Too Excited...
01/16/2009 13:16
It seems the NWS has flip flopped back to a chance of SNOW...
Unfortunately, things look to warm up fairly quickly on Sunday.
Personally, I think Atlanta will see a little SNOW. I don’t think it will amount to much, and it will probably be brief (provided the moisture gets here before daybreak Sunday). The northern ‘burbs might see a dusting before changing to all rain.
The models continue to be all over the place... and it is VERY COLD outside right now... So who knows!?
Unfortunately, things look to warm up fairly quickly on Sunday.
Personally, I think Atlanta will see a little SNOW. I don’t think it will amount to much, and it will probably be brief (provided the moisture gets here before daybreak Sunday). The northern ‘burbs might see a dusting before changing to all rain.
The models continue to be all over the place... and it is VERY COLD outside right now... So who knows!?
Only One Thing is Certain
01/15/2009 15:58
Tonite, tomorrow, and tomorrow nite will be cold... Very cold... lows in the lower teens...
Less certain is wintery fun on Sunday. Models are still inconsistent, but it does appear that moisture has increased (on the GFS anyway). The bad news is that it comes with warmer temps. It is looking now like we have a mostly rain event for the Atlanta area. Maybe mixing with sleet at times, but nothing to get excited about.
Less certain is wintery fun on Sunday. Models are still inconsistent, but it does appear that moisture has increased (on the GFS anyway). The bad news is that it comes with warmer temps. It is looking now like we have a mostly rain event for the Atlanta area. Maybe mixing with sleet at times, but nothing to get excited about.
SNOW Tease...
01/14/2009 16:24
It seems as though the NWS has SNOW in the forecast for Sunday... And check out the lows Thursday and Friday nite... 14 and 13!?! That’s COLD!
Too bad the precip chances are only 20% with rain wording. However, the models have shown no consistency for this “threat” with each run. So I’m still hoping for something more significant!!!
Too bad the precip chances are only 20% with rain wording. However, the models have shown no consistency for this “threat” with each run. So I’m still hoping for something more significant!!!
The Ice Sheets Advance...
01/13/2009 17:37
...in Greenland... But here in Atlanta, it will feel like an ice sheet advancing on us! Dangerous cold is on the way... By Friday morning, temperatures will be in the low teens for the ‘burbs and not much warmer in town! Keep your pets inside, provide food for outdoor birds, and let your faucets drip...
Still nothing (of substance) on the horizon as far as a winter weather event. However, we definitely will have the cold air in place going into next week. There is a lot of chaos between model runs, and stranger things have happened. It isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility that something suddenly show up in the coming days. Outside chances (however small) with cold air in place is better than nothing! I’m grateful than I can continue to dream...
Still nothing (of substance) on the horizon as far as a winter weather event. However, we definitely will have the cold air in place going into next week. There is a lot of chaos between model runs, and stranger things have happened. It isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility that something suddenly show up in the coming days. Outside chances (however small) with cold air in place is better than nothing! I’m grateful than I can continue to dream...
Another Wasted January Day...
01/12/2009 17:27
Cold and dry. That is the story until next week. The GFS shows a tiny bit of moisture late this weekend, but certainly nothing to get excited about. Only a sliver of hope in that the swing to positive NAO will not last long. But La Nina’s nasty face is showing itself again, so dry will continue to be the old, tired story. Not good for SNOW lovers or the drought situation!
I Am Trying... to Believe...
01/11/2009 23:36
Things are not looking good for SNOW lovers. Models are mostly showing very cold (that’s good!) and very dry (that sux!!!). I won’t lie, I got my hopes up last week. I really thought a winter event was near certain this week. That is what I get for trusting (especially) the GFS. The GFS does this every year. It teases with fantastic winter storms that just disappear when within 5-7 days. It almost makes one wonder why the heck they even run it for beyond 7 days...
But... I am still trying to believe... We are in that sweet spot for winter. However, if it doesn’t SNOW in the next week or two, then it likely will not SNOW in Atlanta this year. Even worse, things look to moderate after next week.
Bleh... I hate spring and summer... I am not looking forward to when the trees start budding and things turn that icky shade of new green... yuck... But a good SNOW would lessen that nasty feeling as we go into the worst 8 months of the year...
Please SNOW already!!!
But... I am still trying to believe... We are in that sweet spot for winter. However, if it doesn’t SNOW in the next week or two, then it likely will not SNOW in Atlanta this year. Even worse, things look to moderate after next week.
Bleh... I hate spring and summer... I am not looking forward to when the trees start budding and things turn that icky shade of new green... yuck... But a good SNOW would lessen that nasty feeling as we go into the worst 8 months of the year...
Please SNOW already!!!
FFC Mentions the "S" Word
01/08/2009 17:21
From the Atlanta NWS Forecast Discussion:
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK DRY WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA MID-WEEK AND CONTINUES TO REINFORCE THE COLD
AIR...BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PCPN...EXPECT
POSSIBLY OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED -SHSN IN THE N GA MOUNTAINS. THEN...
THE MAIN ARCTIC FRONT OF THE WEEK...SUPPORTED BY THE 1059MB ARCTIC
HIGH REFERENCED ABOVE...MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE VERY END OF THE
EXTENDED. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR LIGHT WINTER TYPE PCPN. THICKNESS AND TEMPS
DICTATE THAT MUCH OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET...SO
FOR NOW AM FORCED TO ADVERTISE SLGHT CHC -SN ACROSS THE N HALF OF
THE CWA AND -RA ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT SNOW EVENTS IN THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONTS...OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...ARE VERY RARE...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS LOW.
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK DRY WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA MID-WEEK AND CONTINUES TO REINFORCE THE COLD
AIR...BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PCPN...EXPECT
POSSIBLY OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED -SHSN IN THE N GA MOUNTAINS. THEN...
THE MAIN ARCTIC FRONT OF THE WEEK...SUPPORTED BY THE 1059MB ARCTIC
HIGH REFERENCED ABOVE...MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE VERY END OF THE
EXTENDED. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR LIGHT WINTER TYPE PCPN. THICKNESS AND TEMPS
DICTATE THAT MUCH OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET...SO
FOR NOW AM FORCED TO ADVERTISE SLGHT CHC -SN ACROSS THE N HALF OF
THE CWA AND -RA ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT SNOW EVENTS IN THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONTS...OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...ARE VERY RARE...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS LOW.
Next Week: HOLY FREAKIN' BRRRRR!!!
01/07/2009 17:23
Well... The mild weather is over. The cold returns early next week, and it could be brutal. Records lows are expected across the deep south.
And how about a little later in the week... an ice storm? hmmm...
And how about a little later in the week... an ice storm? hmmm...
No Snow This Week... BUT...
01/06/2009 00:31
Doesn’t look like we are going to get any SNOW in the Atlanta area this week... However, the most recent GFS run shows some potential for next week!
And AccuWeather.com has this fun little graphic.
I hope the next few days continue to show a good storm for our area! Please don’t let this be yet another false hope!!
And AccuWeather.com has this fun little graphic.
I hope the next few days continue to show a good storm for our area! Please don’t let this be yet another false hope!!
January 5th - 11th?
12/29/2008 15:18
Things are looking good for some possible winter fun!!!
Unfortunately, it looks like there will be a fairly big warm up after the 11th. So let’s hope this window delivers a good winter storm (or two) for Atlanta!
I will be posting more details on specific events in the coming days.
Unfortunately, it looks like there will be a fairly big warm up after the 11th. So let’s hope this window delivers a good winter storm (or two) for Atlanta!
I will be posting more details on specific events in the coming days.
No White Christmas This Year...
12/22/2008 18:04
Latest model runs show no hope at all for a white Christmas for North Georgia. Just cool and soggy. Oh well. I am grateful for the rain however!!
But there is hope for winter weather in the coming weeks. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is going negative. This basically opens the door for artic air to push into the southeast. More on specific possibilities later.
But there is hope for winter weather in the coming weeks. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is going negative. This basically opens the door for artic air to push into the southeast. More on specific possibilities later.