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wxRadar v2.0 Coming Soon

atlwx — 2012-06-23T16:21:21-04:00

Currently working on wxRadar v2.0! More details to come soon!

What's This?

atlwx — 2012-02-12T23:02:53-05:00

Chance of wintry precip for north Georgia???

Yep…

Will start out as a light wintry mix for most of the area (snow and sleet)… and it will quickly turn to light rain (BOOOOOOO!!!)…

But it’s nice to know that winter is trying to make a comeback!!!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

453 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE AREA THE LAST TWO DAYS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE...IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE WILL
BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND TIMING ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO THE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED
TO CHECK FREQUENTLY FOR FORECAST UPDATES ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE.

* * *

Is there more wintry fun on the horizon after this one? Good question! Looks like there might be another chance or few before we move into spring. Keep your fingers crossed!!!

This Winter Sux

atlwx — 2012-02-02T20:12:04-05:00

This Winter Sux…. I don’t think I need to add anything.

Early Season Winter Weather Event?

atlwx — 2011-11-27T19:31:15-05:00

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
651 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011

..EARLY SEASON WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...

PHASE 2...WINTRY WX POTENTIAL...
TO BE CLEAR...AT THIS POINT...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IS BY FAR THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED THIS WEEK BUT NEED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY WINTRY SCENARIO LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE SPOKE FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN COLD CORE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...INSTABILITY
DRIVEN SHRA ARE LOOKING MORE PROBABLE AND THE QUESTION TURNS TO IN
WHAT FORM. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TO -SNSH
FOR MOST OF NORTH GA THROUGH 15Z TUE. THE PROBLEM IS THE SURFACE
WET BULBS WHICH LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE. FEEL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN TIER
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES BUT AREAS WITH BURSTS IN INTENSITY WILL
HAVE GREATER CHANCES FOR FROZEN PRECIP AS WELL. HAVE OPTED TO
INDICATE -SNSH FOR THE NORTHERN TIER...MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS...AND
A MIX FURTHER SOUTH. REGARDLESS...WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING TO STICK. MAIN AREA FOR CONCERN WOULD BE NE
MOUNTAINS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

Let the fun begin!!!

Severe Storms Today

atlwx — 2011-02-28T09:01:44-05:00

Severe storms are expected this afternoon across north and central Georgia...

The Map to Hell

atlwx — 2011-02-18T07:25:24-05:00

Here is some bad news for those that hate a long, hot, dry summer:

If this persists through the spring, then summer is going to be very unpleasant in Atlanta. No soil moisture ups the chances for extended periods of upper 90’s to over 100 with little to no relief from summer storms. The only fix becomes hoping that a tropical system brings rain. I’m afraid we are in from a brutal summer in the SE.... and I’m none to happy about that!

Minor Snow Event for Atlanta

atlwx — 2011-02-09T09:36:35-05:00

Not really expecting too much for this event, but winter storms in the south can always surprise us... I think this map from the Atlanta office of the NWS from this morning is pretty dead on for this event...

I know I’d be a lot more excited about this event in years past. I hope it stays that way for the next couple of years with big events sprinkled with a few minor events!

Wintry Slop Overnight?

atlwx — 2011-02-03T09:07:42-05:00

Winter continues with a chance of wintry slop for Atlanta tonight and Friday morning. This will likely be mostly rain with some snow mixing in sometime after midnight. At the moment, no accumulations are expected (and will change back to just rain for Friday afternoon). But wouldn’t it be nice to have a 3-day weekend?

Massive Winter Storm For the Midwest

atlwx — 2011-02-01T09:57:58-05:00

That’s a lot of winter weather!

For the Atlanta area, we won’t see any wintery fun, but we might have a few isolated Thunderstorms later today and overnight. Then winter returns for Weds. with lots wind and temps back in the 40’s during the day and a return to the 20’s overnight.

Twenty-Five Years Ago...

atlwx — 2011-01-28T09:14:40-05:00

It was a cold and icy day in Atlanta on January 28, 1986. I was just a kid and remember being out of school for the winter weather. However, many other kids across the country sat in their class rooms waiting to see the launch of the first civilian/teacher into Earth orbit. You know the rest of the story.

We best honor them by continuing to invest both money and talent into continued space exploration. As you read this on your i-Device, don’t forget to look up every now and then.

Hint of Spring

atlwx — 2011-01-28T09:05:14-05:00

Saturday - Sunny with a high 62-64.

THAT is just about what I call perfect. This winter weather fan is very much looking forward to tomorrow!

Rain and Mabye Snow

atlwx — 2011-01-25T10:09:10-05:00

A cold and rainy day for us here in Atlanta with highs in the low to mid 40’s. More rain over night with lows dropping to around 34-35. Tomorrow could see the rain ending as snow for much of the area, however temperatures will remain above freezing, so not expecting any travel problems.

Nice weekend ahead! Sunny and highs nearing 60 for Sunday maybe! Woo hoo!!!

Lookin Like Cold Rain

atlwx — 2011-01-23T12:42:50-05:00

The next storm system sure has a lot of weather folks on edge. All sorts of different solutions being thrown around, but I’m going to go ahead and present my gut feeling on this. I think the most likely scenario is that Atlanta will see a mostly cold rain event Tuesday. Overnight Tuesday, could see some snow mix in, especially northern suburbs of Atlanta with no accumulations expected.

Sorry snow fans, but it looks like we don’t have a good shot with this storm. Of course there is still plenty of time for things to change!

Another Winter Storm?

atlwx — 2011-01-22T13:26:19-05:00

Another winter storm is in the cards for the early work week. Too early to nail down the details, but it could bring wintery precip to Atlanta. Right now it looks like Atlanta is in its favourite place on I-20. Could be snow, rain, or both. Stay tuned!

Brief Wintery Mix Thursday Night?

atlwx — 2011-01-18T15:51:22-05:00

Brief update... There is a chance that the area could see rain changing to a wintery mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Thursday night into Friday morning... However, there is not much in the way of accumulation expected. Maybe a dusting for far north metro, but otherwise, don’t expect a snow day on Friday.

Rainy Monday and ???

atlwx — 2011-01-16T11:00:05-05:00

The great thaw continues Sunday with sun at times and highs near 50. Rain moves in Monday morning and will continue through Tuesday evening. What snow and ice doesn’t melt today will certainly be taken care of by the rain. Hothlanta is quickly returning to just plain old Atlanta.

But will it stay that way? Hmmmm....

Despite many folks (myself include) thinking the later half of January could see a warm up, it seems that winter isn’t ready to throw us a break. Arctic returns for late week with a CHANCE for... you guessed it! Snow...

Here is the end of the forecast period for Atlanta from the NWS:

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A slight chance of flurries. Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 20.

* * *

And here is the longterm forecast discussion from Peachtree City (Atlanta) NWS. There is a lot of jargon that I’ve tried to define below for those that ask.

/ISSUED 645 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011/

...

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE APPEARS DESTINED FOR THE SE U.S. DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY WED-THU IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORT TERM SYSTEM. AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SE
FROM SC CANADA TOWARD THE SE U.S. IN THE DEEPENING NW FLOW THU-FRI.
SUFFICIENT FORCING APPEARS EVIDENT WITH THE DRIVING UPPER SHORT WAVE
THU-THU NIGHT TO SUPPORT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF QPF OF 1.0-1.5
INCH APPEARS WAY OVERDONE GIVEN THAT DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN
REMOVED BY THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. PREFER LIGHTER QPF
DEPICTED BY THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD. STRONG CAA AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING PROVIDE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR -SHSN IN THE NE MOUNTAINS. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING FOR THESE PERIODS. AN INCH OR SO
OF SNOW CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SE STATES
EARLY SAT...THEN MODIFY AND DRIFT EAST BY SUN AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS WITH RESPECT TO
POTENTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. WITH
A REMNANT ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...ANY SUCH SYSTEMS COULD
BRING MORE WINTER WX TO THE AREA AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CAREFULLY. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS JUST COME IN WITH A
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FROM THE 12Z RUN...SHOWING A
WARMER...BUT STILL WITH SOME WINTER WX POTENTIAL DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL REMAIN WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN GFS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND NOT
MENTION ANY WINTER WX OTHER THAN THE -SHSN N GA THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING.

MEX MOS COMES IN COLDER WITH EACH RUN FOR THE FRI-SAT
PERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE
LATE WEEK AIR MASS EMANATES FROM A VERY COLD AIR MASS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS SIBERIA. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH
-40C ACROSS SE CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH -16C PUSHING INTO N GA
FRI. ANALOGOUS TO SIMILAR EVENTS...E.G...12 DEC 2010...THIS WOULD
EQUATE TO HIGHS 25 TO 30 N GA AND 35 TO 40 CENTRAL GA
FRI...RECOVERING DURING THE WEEKEND BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST MEMBERS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR
THESE PERIODS.

FINALLY...16 DAY RUN OF GFS SHOWS VERY PERSISTENT DEEP POLAR VORTEX
AND DEEP TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF
THE MONTH. OVERALL THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF WINTER PCPN DURING THIS
PERIOD AS REPEATED SURGES OF ARCTIC/CANADIAN AIR SPILL WELL
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.

WX = Weather, but you should know that by now!
SHRA = Showers of Rain / Rain Showers
SHSN = Showers of Snow / Snow Showers
PCPN = Precipitation
GFS = Global Forecast System (Main US based global weather forecast model)
ECMWF = European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (aka European Weather Model/“The Euro”)
QPF = Quantitative Precipitation Forecast - How much liquid (or frozen precip if melted down)
CAA = Cold Air Advection - (Advection: the transfer of heat or matter by the flow of a fluid, esp. horizontally in the atmosphere or the sea.)
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING - air is pushed up by mountains
SHORT WAVES - Think of it like energy impulses that could cause precip
SOUTHERN STREAM - Upper level winds that push those SHORT WAVES along. “Southern branch of jet stream”
12Z - Model run for 12:00pm UTC (London Time). 00Z would be midnight UTC. 18Z would be 6pm UTC and so on...
MOS - Model Output Statistics
MEX MOS - Basically the extended forecast MOS for the GFS
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE - it’s jargon, but in the context above, it helps to replace it with “model solution sets”

Those definitions are as quick as I can make them, and some are oversimplified. If you REALLY want to know/understand, then check this site out:

WEATHER PREDICTION EDUCATION

I’ll leave POLAR VORTEX, TROUGH, 850MB TEMPS, and whatever else for you to look up there. Hope this helps!

Hothlanta Thaw Cometh

atlwx — 2011-01-14T09:46:10-05:00

Right now it is a balmy 22 in Midtown Atlanta. What ice is on the roads is still frozen solid. However, today will really begin the thaw for “Hothlanta” with temps reaching the upper 30’s to near 40 under sunny skies. However, there will still be some refreezing tonight with in the low to mid 20’s. Saturday and Sunday continue the thaw with highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Again some refreezing possible Saturday night, but it won’t likely be that much on the roads by then. Still enough of a chance that you should remain cautious through the weekend and especially overnight and until mid morning. Still looks like much needed rain (still in drought, remember?) moves in for Monday. Nothing frozen expected save for far north that may begin as a brief period of freezing rain and sleet before changing to all rain.

This morning, my brother sent me this. Think it about sums it up for most Atlanta folks...

Coldest Temps of the Season?

atlwx — 2011-01-13T19:07:00-05:00

Most of the Atlanta metro saw highs today above freezing with lots of sunshine. This helped to melt off more snow/ice from the roads, but it wasn’t enough to keep many metro school systems from closing. Overnight many areas will flirt with the coldest temps so far this season with clear skies, little to no wind, and the snow/ice still very much in place. The expected lows tonight are somewhere around 15 for the northern burbs to around 19 on the south side. With today’s melting and roads starting to look “clear” of ice/snow, the dangers of black ice are at its highest for this event. Don’t be fooled in the morning. While many roads have improved and now have long dry and ice free stretches, it only takes a little spot that hasn’t seen direct sun or where water has pooled to cause an accident.

The good news is that tomorrow will see highs near 40 with lots of sun. This should put another large dent in melting the ice/snow from the roads, but it isn’t yet the “all clear”. Lows tomorrow night will be in the lower 20’s, so there will again be areas that will refreeze. Saturday will be sunny with highs in the upper 40’s and overnight lows again below freezing. Sunday will again see sun and highs in the upper 40’s, but clouds will increase late in the day with showers moving in for Monday. Lows Sunday night of around 31-34, but not expecting any frozen issues with warmer air quickly moving in with the precip. I suppose there could be an onset of freezing rain and/or sleet, but it would be very brief. Highs are expected to be in the low 50’s for Monday.

Meanwhile, file this away somewhere... Not a good idea to tackle snow on your roof by starting at the bottom (and/or not knowing what you are doing).

Cabin Fever In Hothlanta

atlwx — 2011-01-12T15:00:27-05:00

AHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

Neighborhood streets STILL impassible. Not much melting going on today with temps in the upper 20’s with only a little sun every once in a while. Scattered snow flurries have continued pretty much since the mean of the storm ended and will continue into the evening/overnight. Betting school is called off and tomorrow will be another work from home day.

So when will Hothlanta end? Friday afternoon should pretty much do it as temps will reach the 40’s.

I so want one of these shirts:

Winter Storm Video

atlwx — 2011-01-11T22:48:00-05:00

Here is a video I took while getting gas for my generator that I, thankfully, didn’t need...

In Other Melting News

atlwx — 2011-01-11T11:24:25-05:00

It was announced today that the iPhone his finally been freed from the horrible clutches of AT&Lame!!! Hurray!!!

It’s a shame this didn’t happen two years ago (or even at launch). Consumers should always have the choice of subsidized and locked or full price and unlocked! Carriers also need to accept the fact that most all of their customers want them to shut up and become excellent at being “big dumb pipes”.

Of course some consumers are stupid in that they still seem to accept the SMS pricing scam. There are alternatives! Turn off your SMS completely (you’ll likely have to call) and use free options.

Now, back to the weather... It just popped above freezing. Watch out for falling ice/snow from roofs and trees. Parts of the road may soon appear wet, but will likely refreeze tonight. Be careful and aware!

So When Will It Melt?

atlwx — 2011-01-11T09:49:15-05:00

Light freezing drizzle/fog continues this morning for the Atlanta area. Most of that should end early afternoon.

So how long are we stuck with the messy roads? Some melting should occur this afternoon with highs struggling a degree or two above freezing, but most will refreeze as temps go into the mid-teens this evening. The same will be the story for tomorrow too. “Black ice” is a very real danger over the next couple of days. The best thing to do for now is not to travel at all. Only venture out if you have a pressing need.

Don’t forget that walking on it isn’t much easier either. I’ve already taken at least one spill! Be careful friends!

WOW!

atlwx — 2011-01-10T03:46:13-05:00

Ok... I haven’t seen this sort of thing since 1993. Heavy snow, blowing wind, pelting in the face. Snow EVERYWHERE. This is an unbelievable event. Definitely in the history books this on goes. I’m completely wowed... and it isn’t even done yet!!!!

Atlanta - Less Snow & More Ice?

atlwx — 2011-01-09T12:47:28-05:00

The Weather Service in Atlanta (FFC) has adjusted the forecast slightly... more toward what I was saying yesterday actually... Less Snow for Atlanta and more Ice... YUCK!

1/4” of ice is when trees really start dropping branches and power outages become more common. Remember that if your power goes out, it might not be back on for a day or more. You have until around midnight tonight to still make preparations. Go NOW if you haven’t already!

Winter Storm Warning

atlwx — 2011-01-09T09:37:55-05:00

*** Winter Storm Warning from 7pm tonight until 7pm Monday ***

I think that map is pretty dead on for what we can expect (as of now).

Meanwhile, check this facebook group out. I’ve joined their team of forecasters! Excellent group of folks and great forecasts.

Foot's Forecast: Southeast‎

Winter Storm Update

atlwx — 2011-01-08T13:32:41-05:00

I’m sure everyone is gathering their provisions today as advised! I still believe it is a wise move.

Here are my latest thoughts on our winter storm...

Latest model runs are still showing Atlanta getting a fairly decent amount of precip. Thinking it begins as light snow tomorrow evening. Overnight, the snow will get a little heavier with accumulations around the Atlanta area from 2 to 4 inches (isolated 6”+) before going over to a brief period of sleet. Sleet might add a little additional accumulations, but it will then quickly change to freezing rain sometime Monday morning. The big question is when this will happen. My current thinking is that it will happen soon enough for the Atlanta area (particularly southern portions) to see some fairly significant icing. Enough ice to cause limbs to fall and power outages that, for some, could last more than just 24 hours. This is why I think that stocking up on some provisions that don’t require cooking is a wise thing to do at this point.

There are still many uncertainties with this storm. I’m of the opinion that no one is going to be really certain until it is actually happening. I think most would agree that Atlanta will see frozen precip, and that at some point we’ll see all three: snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Duration of each and how much are the biggest question marks, and my thoughts above are really just an educated guess. This all changes not only with the track of the low, but also thunderstorms that could form along the coast and in the Gulf. This convection could very well limit the precip farther north. There are many other complications that make figuring out specifics right now very difficult.

I’ll post more thoughts later this evening. If you haven’t already, go get a few things to last you through a couple of days without power.

It's coming!

atlwx — 2011-01-07T10:37:19-05:00

Get ready Atlanta! Major winter storm is coming!

Too difficult to nail down just how much snow or ice right now. The one thing that is nearly certain though is that there will be a storm and it will have frozen precip. North of the city can expect pretty much all snow. The Atlanta metro will probably get mostly snow at first and then a change over to sleet and freezing rain. It’s fairly safe to say that you can expect a “snow day” Monday as travel will be nearly impossible for most of north GA (including Atlanta metro). Should ice accumulations begin to exceed a quarter inch, then you can expect tree limbs falling and power outages. This is a storm to be taken SERIOUSLY. Make sure you have food that doesn’t require cooking (sandwich meats, peanut butter, beer). If outages are widespread, some could be without power until mid-week. HINT: You are wise to hit the grocery store asap.

Of course the storm track can shift and dramatically change things. Atlanta could very well see almost all snow while the icy conditions shift further south (this is what I’m hoping for).

Here is HPC/NWS probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow:

and here are the probabilities of ice accumulation of at least one quarter inch:

I’ll post an expected accumulation map tomorrow.

Winter Storm Update

atlwx — 2011-01-06T07:39:15-05:00

Here is a brief update on the possible winter storm for Sunday/Monday... The models have trended a little warmer and have pushed the bulk of the snow further north. They also continue to show a very “close call” for a fairly significant ice issue for north GA. This could continue to be an unknown all the way up until the event itself unless there is a dramatic change in the current trends.

Look for the NWS and local media to continue with a mention of snow/rain for now. Some may mention ice/sleet... but absolutely no one is certain at this time.

Personally, I’d say prepare a little early just in case. However, I don’t think there is a need to go overboard just yet... unless of course you are an Auburn fan. Football is serious business in the south as everyone knows, and I’d imagine there have been more than a few generators sold in the last 24 hours to fans unnerved by even the slightest possibility of not having power Monday night. Plan accordingly and check in with weather sources often as we go into the weekend.

Winter Storm?

atlwx — 2011-01-05T17:50:30-05:00

The potential for a major winter storm for the SE is slowly spreading throughout the social nets and local media. The threat begins Sunday and the duration could possibly extend beyond what we typically see. Everything from a major snowfall to a crippling ice storm to absolutely nothing are our multiple choices for this question. Plain old rain could also be an answer, but it is the first one I’m crossing out.

Look for the NWS and local media to be conservative as usual (and for good reason). However, if you’ve been putting off that generator purchase, now is as good a time as any! Especially you Auburn fans...

Happy New Year!

atlwx — 2011-01-02T15:45:52-05:00

The cold will continue to be the story into the new year. Many (myself included) thought we might see a break from the cold of December, but it looks as though we will continue to see below normal temperatures through the middle of the month.

We will have lots of cold, but not too much in the way of moisture. No major snow/ice threats on the horizon. However, we really could use some rain. It’s hard to think about while it is so cold, but much of the south-eastern US is currently in a moderate to severe drought.

We certainly do NOT want to see the map looking like that come summertime!

Atlanta's White Christmas - 2010

atlwx — 2010-12-27T13:55:50-05:00

The last week has been one heck of a roller coaster ride for this weather geek! But in the end, it all paid off...

My first snowman built on Christmas! I know.... pathetic... he’s tiny... and his nose fell off over night...

This one definitely goes down in the history books, with Atlanta seeing its first White Christmas since 1881!

This has been added to the History section of the site: HERE.

Looking ahead, rumblings of a possible severe weather maker for New Year’s. Then whispers of warmer weather (compared to December’s cold) for January. That doesn’t mean there won’t be any wintery fun though! This has been a very odd La Nina so far this late fall/early winter season. Things continue to look interesting and far from boring going into January.

Wishing everyone a very Happy New Year!

Snow?

atlwx — 2010-12-11T22:57:57-05:00

Looks like we are in for some really miserable weather tonight... cold, rain, and becoming windy...

However, tomorrow(Sunday) may offer up a few snow showers! MAYBE a dusting for some lucky folks in the Atlanta metro area... Unfortunately, it won’t be enough to create the chaos and disorder that we need for a snow day come Monday. There likely won’t be snow on the ground, but it is going to be really really cold on Monday with temps not making it above freezing. Nice. Then pipe busting cold Monday night, so make sure you take steps to avoid that!

All this cold so early in winter... Does this mean all winter is going to be brutally cold? Probably not... With the current La Nina pattern, we will likely see things trend warmer and drier into January/February, so if you love wintery mischief like me, enjoy these December threats.

Wintry Fun Next Week?

atlwx — 2010-11-29T13:27:57-05:00

Some talk of potential wintry weather next week. Haven’t had time to look at in great detail yet...

And So It Begins...

atlwx — 2010-11-04T09:29:37-04:00

Bring those plants in! And be on the lookout for whispers of snow flurries (maybe far North GA)...

CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MACON
316 AM EDT THU NOV 4 2010

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WATCH COVERS THOSE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM HAMILTON...TO MACON...TO EATONTON...TO LEXINGTON.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER GEORGIA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FREEZE EVENT
IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MAKE
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND YOUNG TREES.

&&

$$
Issuing Weather Forecast Office Homepage

Beautiful Fall Weather... At a Cost...

atlwx — 2010-10-07T09:27:56-04:00

Lovely weather in Atlanta of late. I LOVE October!

But...

These are not pretty pictures...

We seriously need some rain, but don’t count on it anytime soon. Maybe a shower next Monday evening?

Enjoy the nice weather now! We might wind up having to pay it back next summer (but let’s not ruin the day with those thoughts)....

This week will finally feel like Fall!

atlwx — 2010-09-27T22:04:55-04:00

Beautiful weather this week... Highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s... and we got a good wetting down this weekend, so I can enjoy this beautiful weather without guilt!!!

Have a great week!

Today Was Just Not A Good Day...

atlwx — 2010-09-25T19:53:49-04:00

I already knew today was going to be one of those less than stellar Saturdays. It started with a football game at noon!? Come on!!!! Is there anything worse than a noon kick off?

To add to the misery, we had a new record high today of 93 degrees!!! Oh... and this is the 85th day of 2010 that we have hit 90 degrees! Which I think is a record in and of itself. I believe 1980 had just 5 or more days more.

Oh... and we lost the football game... big time... NC State 45 : Ga Tech 28

This is supposed to be the most fantastic time of the year!!! Fall coming on strong with cool refreshing air and fun football!?!

Well... Thankfully things are about to get cooler and a lot more wet in the coming days. We seriously need the rain.... and I am very grateful that it looks like we just may get a good slug of it too!!!

Here is the 5 day total rainfall amounts from HPC:

Yea!!!! Fall Is Here!!!

atlwx — 2010-09-22T23:06:39-04:00

Grab your eggs and stand them on end! For Fall is here!!!!

P.S. - just kidding on the eggs... google: snopes eggs equinox

Rain!?

atlwx — 2010-09-22T22:15:44-04:00

So...

Interesting things showing in recent model runs... maybe a good dent in this drought coming as soon as Sunday??? Let’s hope so!!!

3D Weather

atlwx — 2010-09-21T13:26:50-04:00

DROUGHT, DREAD, AND DESPAIR

Summer 2010 started off with a fairly rainy June... However July, August, and now September have offered a lot of unwelcome heat and very little rain.

Ufortunately, we are now “officially” in a drought, and one that may last for some time to come.

I HATE SUMMER

Save for those days/evenings when you can watch the clouds grow and lightning flashing from scattered storms, I absolutely HATE summer... of course there hasn’t been many of those storms since June... it has been warmer than usual.... and I’m none too pleased about it being late September with highs in the 90’s and lows in the upper 60’s. Ugh! Summer - Leave already!!!

Winter is almost my favorite season (I love SNOW and other wintery fun), but I don’t like the “cold part” of it. Once it goes below 29, I’m generally “not having it”. Spring is great for all the severe weather excitement, but the beauty of trees budding and flowers starting to bloom is quickly overpowered by the inevitable arrival of my aforementioned most hated time of year.

Thankfully, the death of summer is inevitable, and my favorite time of the year is almost here. September 1st is generally acknowledged to be the start of “meteorological fall” (with the astronomical start/equinox being around the 21st/22nd). However, September in Atlanta is usually a “bonus summer month” (why do I still live in Atlanta?), with this particular September clearly showing it wants nothing to do with fall. But October (my favorite month) is just 10 days away... and with it comes some of the most pleasant weather of the year for Atlanta. I should be excited, right! Well, of course I am... but a little less so this year...

October usually brings cooler temps and wind patterns that finally clear out all that summer pollution/haze, and it is historically the driest month of the year for Atlanta/the southeast (makes for pleasant weather! ). However, October 2010 looks to be warmer than average with below average rainfall. Summer may continue to stay well past its welcome even into October. Warmer than I’d like it, but I’m sure it will still be pleasant for the most part. Of course the wild card is a tropical system. And while I hate to take away any of those beautiful October days, we really need it to happen. More on that in a few...

LA NINA IS EVIL

Southeastern US winters with a strong La Nina generally have warmer than average temps and below average rainfall.

The “good news” is that we shouldn’t have the never-ending cold like this past winter. The “bad news” (at least those that love wintery mischief) is there will be less chance for SNOW.

Of course ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) is just one piece in the chaos of “patterns”. There are also long duration patterns like the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and the AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation), but these play out of many years and are very hot topics in the “Global Climate Change” debate. For those (like me) that want wintery mischief, we do have some muted hope with Teleconnections that vary over smaller periods of time. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the AO (Arctic Oscillation) have a large impact during the winter for Atlanta/SE. If you want wintery weather during this La Nina, you generally want to see both the AO and NAO in negative territory. (Maybe I’ll try to post something before winter begins that shows this a little more graphically)

Now that I’m done complaining about the grim outlook for wintery precip chances, here is the really is “bad news”. With most of the coming fall & winter expected to be warm, dry, and mostly boring. The drought looks to continue through the winter months and maybe even into the spring. There is also a chance of more severe weather than usual during the winter into the spring. Obviously any rainfall will be good rainfall, but these events aren’t likely to make much of a dent in the drought.

ALREADY DREADING SUMMER 2011?

Droughts and heat waves go “hand in hand”. If the drought worsens and continues on through the spring, there will be less soil moisture to evaporate. This means more of the sun’s energy will be spent heating the barren ground and every object that doesn’t melt, making Atlanta even more like hell. Since the weather is pretty static here during the summer, those afternoon summer storms are mostly driven by moisture in the area. With no soil moisture and no weather systems to bring moisture from elsewhere, there will be little in the way of relief from the heat by scattered storms. Does this sound familiar? It should... only 3 years ago...

Drought : 2007
SUMMER FROM HELL: AUGUST 01-27, 2007

Fortunately, there is nothing now that indicates that the current drought will be anywhere near as bad as 2007.

WE NEED A TROPICAL SYSTEM OR TWO

Obviously the weather can surprise us in unexpected ways, but with the current pattern in place, we are likely stuck with the drought for some time. Our best hope to lessen the impact of the drought is a tropical system. October is already not going to be that perfect month with the warmer temps, so might as well have it be a rainy October too. So I hope we can get one or two weak systems that bring some solid rain (but without flooding).

wxRadar v1.2 - Update

atlwx — 2010-09-03T19:49:19-04:00

On track for availability at the end of the month (September 2010). Here are a few preview pics:

The older style maps will still be available (via settings)...

Major Update for wxRadar Soon!

atlwx — 2010-08-24T17:51:26-04:00

This is a hint of the new graphics/map option. Of course the end product will be sans the big red pin.

And to those that like the old “traditional” NWS maps, you’ll be able to still use those too... Right now, the ETA is end of September.

wxRadar v1.1.1

atlwx — 2010-07-03T22:15:08-04:00

I should be submitting a minor update to wxRadar in the next day or two... v1.1.1 will be a mostly minor update. It brings the option to turn ON the legend for “normal” graphics views of individual site. It is also compiled under iOS 4.0, so you will be able to open wxRadar and it pick up right where you last left off. I also HOPE that it will include the National HD radar view for devices that can run iOS 4.0, but that depends on if I can work a bug out where it will stop responding to orientation changes. Finally and least exciting, I’ve updated most of the icons to 2x resolution for iPhone 4. Unfortunately that is just the icons NOT the actual radar graphics - still working on that, but I’m limited to the resolution the NWS provides... However, things are changing... stay tuned!

Meanwhile, here are a few sample shots from wxRadar v1.1.1:

Oh yeah... I have a new icon as well... I think it is pretty cool...

One more thing... I know the help/support for wxRadar is “lacking” at the moment... I plan on adding a FAQ and general instructions soon... and I plan on actually putting some of those instructions/tips into the app itself, but meanwhile, if you have a question... please DO NOT hesitate to use the “contact me” link at the bottom of this page... I normally answer emails within 24 hours (and more often than not, a couple of hours)...

Helping Others...

atlwx — 2010-06-19T18:02:10-04:00

I suppose that “technically”, the excellent iOS app “Storm Spotter” is a competitor to “wxRadar”... but in reality the authors of both are just independent “weather geeks”, so I throw this notion out the door... I firmly believe that there is nothing lost when it comes to helping others... and especially when those people share the same passion and honesty in striving to provide nothing less that an excellent product to their fellow “weather geeks”!

I would like to share something that made my day... or actually made my year:

Wow.

I’m happiest when I help someone else get through something technically challenging, so this really made me smile. The funny thing here is that I’m probably no where near the knowledge/ability that Ross has for development. So while I’d love to let the world believe that I’m an experienced iOS developer, I must confess that I’m really not. Honestly, there were a few things in the snippets of code that Ross sent me in trying to troubleshoot this that helped me in better understanding development for iOS. The moral of the story is that it truly pays to help others... and do not fear that you might have less ability/knowledge as you almost always learn something new in the process...

Check out “Storm Spotter”!

... and ...

Here is an update on wxRadar: v1.1 is still “waiting for review” over in the black hole that is Apple’s app approval process. I expect it to show up in the app store any minute/day now. I’m really proud of this update! There are a few things that didn’t make it (for example, legend support), but I had put off releasing something for far too long now (yes, I saw that complaint in a review about promised updates not showing up - my bad). Sometimes you have to just let it go, or it will never be “done”. That said, this update is huge! It has full iPad support, favorites, regional/national composite radars, and a really cool new feature that I call “out of the way mode”. Legend support will be in a point release that I hope to complete within the next 2-4 weeks. This point release will also include expanded settings that will allow users to turn on/off warnings and legends (for faster downloads) as well as the ability to “remember” radar type when moving between different radar sites. I’m also working on another major update that will include a really cool, new feature that no one else has done yet. I’ll elaborate further on this as I get closer to finishing it. I can’t wait to share what it is!

Excellent New Blog

atlwx — 2010-04-14T14:30:16-04:00

My good friend Kevin Selle has started an excellent new blog called: Digital Meteorologist

“Digital Meteorologist is a community for anyone interested in the future of weather delivery in the digital age, and the changes in the traditional television industry.”

Check it out!

Here’s the Link: Digital Meteorologist

It's Only April 12th...

atlwx — 2010-04-12T16:05:29-04:00

Here it is... only the 12th of April... and I’m already counting down to October...

I hate summers in Atlanta. Especially ones that drag on and on without an afternoon storm in sight. That is how today is already feeling. A long... hot... pollen filled... dry and boring week... ugh... I already hate that summer is coming, but a dry spring really fills me with dread. Lack of soil moisture played a big role in the August from hell in 2007...

I suppose the “positive” spin on this is that we haven’t had the severe weather we usually get this time of year. Though, like most weather geeks, I have a love/hate relationship with severe storms. However, I really don’t have a love/hate relationship with boring, dry, hot and miserable... so... I vote a pattern change sooner rather than later!

iPad

atlwx — 2010-04-03T19:31:01-04:00

The iPad is awesome...

So... I’ve compiled and run the new version of wxRadar on it... I have a few UI bugs to work out, but it should be pretty easy. That said... wxRadar update is coming REALLY soon (submitting to Apple within the next week)... I’m also not putting out an “HD” version of wxRadar or anything separate for the iPad. It will just become a universal app and a free update to everyone (no special or additional functionality for the iPad yet - but it will run outside the 1x/2x mode). This isn’t to say I don’t have plans for cool stuff for the iPad... more on that later...

Changes...

atlwx — 2010-03-14T12:55:50-04:00

I’ve been really busy with that project I mentioned sometime back... I hope to be at a point where I can provide updates soon! wxRadar updates keep falling behind because of this, but I have been working on it when I the slightest bit of time... It will be out VERY soon now... I didn’t get as much as I had hoped into it, but I do believe it includes most of the functionality that has been requested. Only thing that I can think of that it will not include immediately is “Favorites”... However, it is working well enough that I expect to put it in a subsequent update shortly after. Thank you for your patience...

- Paul

Atlanta - Winter Storm Watch

atlwx — 2010-02-11T15:36:34-05:00

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
304 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010

...ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
ON FRIDAY...

GAZ022>025-027-031>039-041>051-053>062-068>076-081>086-094>098-
107>113-120415-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0003.100212T1400Z-100213T0500Z/
FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-
GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-
DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-
TALIAFERRO-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-
PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-
WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-
JOHNSON-EMANUEL-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-PULASKI-
WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...SWAINSBORO...WARNER ROBINS...
DUBLIN...VIDALIA
304 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COST
SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. WITH THE COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE NEAR THE
GROUND AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BY MIDDAY...THE PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF A BUCHANAN TO GAINESVILLE LINE BY THE TIME THE SNOW
ENDS FRIDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

Friday Night - Ummm... No...

atlwx — 2010-01-28T23:15:42-05:00

There has been rumblings about frozen fun tomorrow night... But if you are in the Atlanta area, forget about it... Just expect a nasty, cold rain with maybe a sleet pellet here and there... and count your blessings that it will be a cold rain as this is not a snow type set up... we do NOT need an ice storm!!!

NE of town up toward the mountains, that might be another story...

Night y’all!

First Tornado Watch For 2010

atlwx — 2010-01-24T12:33:30-05:00

SPC has just put out the first tornado watch of the year for the Atlanta area...

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM UNTIL
600 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ATLANTA GEORGIA TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN SQUALL LINE WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL AL INTO GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF THE
LINE...COUPLED WITH WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR AN EMBEDDED TORNADO ALONG
THE LINE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.

...HART

Thank You!!!

atlwx — 2010-01-21T11:32:55-05:00

THANK YOU to everyone who helped make Indie+Relief a success!!! I submitted the donation to Doctors Without Borders just a few minutes ago. I also passed the totals on to Justin so that he can include them in his numbers. Please visit the Indie+Relief site for more information and the list of all participating developers.

Indie+Relief

atlwx — 2010-01-16T22:03:47-05:00

I will be donating ALL proceeds from App Store sales of wxRadar on January 20th (this Wednesday) to the massive relief effort now underway in Haiti. I have chosen Doctors Without Borders as the recipient organisation.

Please visit the Indie+Relief site for more information and the list of all participating developers.

Thank you for supporting our brothers and sisters in Haiti... and a special thank you to Justin (www.secondgearsoftware.com) and Garrett (garrettmurray.net) for putting Indie+Relief together!

Erased... From Existence...

atlwx — 2010-01-11T09:32:21-05:00

No... I’m not fading out of photographs... I just haven’t posted in over a month... Here is what is up:

* Winter - it’s canceled... Well, at least the second half of January... mostly... in all seriousness, it is (FINALLY) going to warm up a little bit (however, big storm next weekend could bring surprises? I doubt it... but can’t completely rule it out just yet)... After a little reinforcing shot of cold air tonite (with a chance of a few SNOW flakes! - unfortunately just flurries, so plan on being at work tomorrow), we go from the high amplitude pattern that has been flooding us with arctic air to a more zonal flow... The aforementioned “big storm” roles through with lots of rain... and then next week looks like we may even enter a western trough, eastern ridge pattern... That never bodes well for SNOW lovers... We’ll call this the “January Thaw”... However, I think things could get interesting going into February, so enjoy it while it lasts!

* wxRadar - I’m running a little late on the v1.1 update... I rewrote a couple of pieces for better performance and UI experience... and I have the search by city working fine now as well as the regional and national maps... However, I’m afraid “Favorites” will have to wait for the next update after v1.1 (I don’t want to delay v1.1 any more)... A few small/minor bugs still need fixing, but I think I should have it ready to submit to Apple sometime in the next 7-10 days... I apologize for the delay, but I promise the update will be worth it!

* The “Dark Project” - I’ll be honest and say that this too has played in to the delay on v1.1 of wxRadar... but... I can’t say much more on this right now.... after all, it wouldn’t be “dark” if I could talk about it... ; )

SNOW?!

atlwx — 2009-12-04T10:00:59-05:00

Alright... I’ve been watching this possible SNOW event over the last couple of days... I haven’t really felt that it would pan out for us here in Atlanta.

However... I’m starting to believe...

Wetness Approacheth

atlwx — 2009-12-01T13:21:37-05:00

Welcome to Winter!

atlwx — 2009-12-01T01:07:25-05:00

it’s December 1... the first day of meteorological winter!!!

and it will begin to feel like winter very soon.. more details coming!

Splitting Out

atlwx — 2009-11-22T12:10:41-05:00

I’m currently in the process of splitting out twitter and blog stuff. I really don’t want to have a page that goes back and forth with updates for wxRadar and talking about weather in Atlanta. In the coming weeks, I plan to split the blog out so that my apps have their own page. New twitter account should be showing on the side under atlwx.

Thanksgiving Travel Special

atlwx — 2009-11-21T09:51:48-05:00

wxRadar is 50% off for the Thanksgiving travel period! Just $0.99!

Whispers of Winter Wx?

atlwx — 2009-11-19T08:50:51-05:00

I’ve been so busy with wxRadar, I haven’t really had the chance to do the fun weather stuff! but I’ve been poking around here and there, so here is a brief update for those in North Georgia...

Looks like there are hints of a pattern change at the end of the month into December. The GFS has been giving false hints for a while now, but there has been talk of why this may finally pan out (FINALLY!)... So... look for things to get colder and wetter just in time for the GT/UGA game?!

and the best, I must confess, I have saved for the last (nod to D. Elfman)... there are whispers of wintery weather for the first week of December! hmmm...

yeah yeah, the models always tease us this far out... but it is fun to dream about it anyhow. We shall see!

wxRadar v1.0.1 Now Available

atlwx — 2009-11-19T08:08:21-05:00

wxRadar v1.0.1 is finally available!

This update fixes a couple of big bugs, so download the update as soon as you can...

wxRadar v1.0.1 Update - Soon (I Hope)

atlwx — 2009-11-18T11:46:05-05:00

I submitted the minor v1.0.1 update to wxRadar (mostly bug fixes) nearly 2 weeks ago. It went to “in review” status on Monday. Hopefully it should be hitting the App Store any minute now (provided Apple doesn’t reject it).

Still working away on the v1.1 update (which includes regional maps and expanded search functionality). As of now, no change in the mid-December ETA.

Beautiful Fall Day Here in Atlanta

atlwx — 2009-11-14T15:29:32-05:00

Just a beautiful day here in Atlanta! That and Ga Tech destroyed Duke 49 to 10... That said, am I nervous about the GT vs. UGA game in 2 weeks??? You bet I am! ...and I don't want to talk about it now...

Meanwhile... I'm still waiting for Apple to approve my v1.0.1 update for wxRadar... It's been almost a week now (and I hate waiting!!!! )...

Unfortunately, v1.01 has a bug that affects every other selection of a different radar type (it will throw a network error)... A silly logic mistake, but I can't just "fix it" because the App store will put me back at the end of the review line. This bug won't be noticed by the majority of users, so I have chosen to let the update go without fixing this particular issue... Sad that I have to think this way... I wish Apple would just let you update the binary and keep your place in line (especially if only just updating the current version)...

When (and IF) this submission of v1.0.1 hits iTunes, please note that you can simply hit the refresh button after the error... However, if this isn't acceptable, please contact me (link at bottom of page). I'll make sure you get an update that fixes this issue (and please request only if you REALLY need it - I have a very limited number of "ad-hoc" devices left)...

Otherwise, I plan to release v1.0.2 (which fixes this) as soon as v1.0.1 is available... HOWEVER, if I finish v1.1 BEFORE v.1.0.2 is approved, I will just go ahead and submit v.1.1... wxRadar v1.1 will include all fixes as well as many requested features, including search by city and regional/national radar views. The current ETA for v1.1 is mid-December, but that date depends compeltely on Apple's review of the update.

Please check back for updates.. and do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions or concerns!

Ok, I'm Ready For SNOW

atlwx — 2009-11-11T07:29:30-05:00

Alright... Enough with the rain already... I'm ready for SNOW!!! I've got a really good feeling about this coming Winter here in Atlanta!

Radar Feed Is Back

atlwx — 2009-11-10T15:53:45-05:00

Looks like the NOAA feed in question working again... However, if you experience trouble loading a radar, try switching to "Express Mode"...

I apologize for any inconvience this issue may have caused. For those in the southeast US (like me), this was HORRIBLE timing with Ida coming in. While the issue was beyond my control, I should make every attempt to have fallbacks where available. I have submitted an update that includes additional "mirrors", and I will continue to look out for anything else that will help prevent this type of issue in the future. Please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any additional questions or concerns. Thank you again for your patience.

Umm... Where's the Radar?

atlwx — 2009-11-09T16:39:46-05:00

Where do I begin?

It seems that someone hosed up a "symbolic link" (or similar idea) over at NOAA. The radar feeds are hosed across all of the weather.gov site. However, I found an alternate feed that is off by one directory? Strange... Wish I could just update my app right away with a fix! Oh wait, there is that app review process that takes who knows how long now... Of course it would be nice if NOAA could just fix it on their end too! I just love bureaucracy...

Oh... and iTunes Connect is down too... so I can't even update the iTunes description to tell folks to use the "Express" mode (that feed isn't broken) before folks start deleting the app and throwing one star at me...

Oh well... I'll just do my best with what I can do! Write in the backup directory for an update... and pray things beyond my control work out asap...

A Big Thank You...

atlwx — 2009-11-06T16:09:08-05:00

I owe a HUGE thank you to a couple of the guys over at "Weather Brains"/"Weather Insiders". They have provided not only excellent feedback and suggestions, they have told others about my app. I'm truly grateful to Kevin Selle, Brian Peters, and Bill Murray. Thank you so much guys!!!

*       *       *

Please check out their Podcast - "Weather Brains"... I have listened to it since nearly the beginning.

Weather Brains in iTunes

*       *       *

And I'd also recommend James Spann's "Weather Xtreme" video podcast. It is Alabama centric, but it definitely covers weather across all of North America.

Weather Xtreme Video in iTunes

*       *       *

Finally, Kevin Selle Started an excellent Podcast called "Weather Insiders"... Unfortunately, it is in hiatus at the moment, but the episodes that were done are great, and he hopes to restart it in the near future.

Weather Insiders in iTunes

*       *       *

Thanks again guys. I plan to do something special and fun in an update to wxRadar just for you guys!

wxRadar Available Now!!!

atlwx — 2009-11-04T10:04:25-05:00

My first iPhone/iPod Touch app is finally available!!!

So go get it ===> wxRadar

Now time for the site overhaul... fun stuff!!!

Boring Weather Week

atlwx — 2009-11-02T14:44:58-05:00

Boring weather for most of the week here in Atalnta... so enjoy the nice weather!

The Blackhole of Apple

atlwx — 2009-11-02T11:21:25-05:00

Going on 2 weeks now... and not ONE WORD from Apple... this is ridiculous...

Why can't they give you some sort of indication of WHERE my app is in their stupid review process!?!

Meanwhile... Happy thoughts... dreams of SNOW JAM 2010!!!

wxRadar Still Awaiting Apple's Blessing...

atlwx — 2009-10-28T11:22:15-04:00

wxRadar still in limbo that is the app store review process... bleh...

"Triboelectrification" and "in review" are two words/phrases that make me groan this week...

Meanwhile, I have managed to fix a few bugs that are in version 1.0, as well as make a few UI improvements... but I don't dare pull it before Apple approves it.

As soon as 1.0 is approved, I'll submit version 1.0.1 to be released (after the black hole of Apple's app review). I apologize, in advance, to anyone who comes across the bugs (that are already fixed) before the update. Hopefully updates don't take as long to review as initial submissions. Ares I-X just got off the ground, so I'll keep an optimistic attitude here as well!

The Waiting Continues...

atlwx — 2009-10-23T12:06:05-04:00

Still waiting on Apple to approve wxRadar... It's only been since Monday, so I can't say that I'm surprised really.

Meanwhile, I'm working on the support page and fixing a few bugs. I'll be turning around and submitting the first update shortly after it is approved (keeping fingers crossed that it will be approved that is).

I'm also starting work on my bigger weather related app. There is nothing like it on the app store, so I can't talk much about it just yet. It will be called wxGeek, and I hope to have it ready by sometime in December.

wxRadar Has Been Submitted!

atlwx — 2009-10-19T21:19:44-04:00

I FINALLY submitted wxRadar (v1.0) to the iTunes App Store... Now the waiting begins... please pray for me!

Here are a few screenshots:

Coming Very Soon to the App Store...

atlwx — 2009-10-11T01:46:09-04:00

I'm so excited! I will be submitting my first iPod/iPhone app in the next couple of days!!! Still a few minor bugs to work through...

wxRadar - All US NEXRAD radars presented in a simple, yet elegant way... You can use your current location, search by zip code, or pick from a list of all the sites in the US... Includes base reflectivity, velocity, storm totals, etc... plus animation of images and, the ability to quickly access adjacent radar sites... wxRadar also has two different user level modes ("Advanced" and "Basic" - for those folks that have no idea what "base velocity" means)... and two different graphics levels ("Normal" - full topography presentation... and "Express" - for faster access to radar images)...

Oh yeah... and the promise of regualr updates / cool new features already in the pipe for future updates!!!

Just $1.99...

I'll post more images of the actual app as soon as I submit the binary for review... I'm really proud of it and hope that others will find it useful and definitely better than most of the other "noise" in the app store at this price level...

More details soon!

- Paul

Muggy, Damp, Rainy...

atlwx — 2009-09-17T21:52:52-04:00

Lovely past few days... Actually, I rather like the rainy weather.... IF I COULD JUST STAY HOME and read books or sleep... Or put the finishing touches on my iPhone app...

yep, the app is coming along slower than I wished, but I'm not really that far behind what I felt was realistic... I plan to put it off to Apple for approval by Monday... Last few things I'm missing is good artwork for iTunes (i.e. the icon)... Hopefully a friend will help me put it together in time...

Meanwhile, enjoy the fact that it isn't opressive summer drought weather any more... Fall is coming (or already here)... which means you know what starts getting me and all the s--- bunnies hopping!!!!!!!!!!! the chance of that "S" word!!!!!

To all my friends and co-workers - Have a Happy and safe Jewish New Year this weekend!!!

- Paul

UPDATE

atlwx — 2009-07-07T01:12:38-04:00

I hate summer...

I mean...

I REALLY HATE summer...

like... as in... HATE.... DETEST... ETC...

how far off is October?

I've not posted much in while because of the aforementioned hatred of summer, but also because I've been developing a cool weather app for the iPhone... and I do mean cool!!! Nothing out there like it right now!!!

Meanwhile, I'm sure I'll start posting again as we move into threats from the tropics... Until then... stay cool... and pray that the EVIL 594 circle from Hades stays FAR AWAY from the SE...

Peace, love, green M&M's, and groovy daffodils....

- Paul

Slight RIsk For Today

atlwx — 2009-05-28T07:41:04-04:00

Slight risk of severe weather today:

Greatest risk looks to be wind and/or hail:

Tornado risk is pretty low:

All this stormy weather should clear out by the weekend. Lows will be a very comfortable upper 50's with highs in the mid to upper 80's (YUCK - Summer is coming, and I HATE IT).

Boring Here, But Not So Much In The Middle

atlwx — 2009-05-13T10:32:43-04:00

The weather has been mostly boring around here of late... I'm sure there are a lot of folks who aren't complaining about that...

However, things look to be rough in the middle of the country today:

A new massive effort to study severe weather called VORTEX2 began just a few days ago... Today looks to be their first real chance at getting data! Good luck V2!!!

http://tornadoscientists.blogspot.com/
http://www.vortex2.org/home
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/vortex2/
http://www.facebook.com/pages/VORTEX2/57534205998

Tornado Watch

atlwx — 2009-05-06T10:38:49-04:00

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
MUCH OF NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1030 AM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
AUBURN ALABAMA TO 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROME GEORGIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 252...WW 253...

DISCUSSION...WELL DEVELOPED SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. WITH STRONG VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES IN PLACE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MLCAPES
AOA 1500 J/KG...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE AND LIKELY INCREASE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. IN ADDITION TO TORNADO POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY EMBEDDED ROTATIONS WITHIN LINE...MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS COULD
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF MAIN LINE AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HALES

Yet Another Potential Severe Wx Day

atlwx — 2009-05-06T09:35:57-04:00

Well folks... Looks like we might be in for yet another day of severe weather... Similar to a couple of days ago, the biggest severe threat looks to be from wind...

Meanwhile, it looks like we might get hammered with some very heavy rain...

Stay safe!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

atlwx — 2009-05-03T16:55:26-04:00

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL...WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233...

VALID 032013Z - 032115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233
CONTINUES.

SQUALL LINE HAS DEFINITELY SLOWED TO AROUND 40KT AS IT PROGRESSES
ACROSS CNTRL INTO ERN AL...THOUGH PRIMARY BOW ALONG NRN SECTIONS OF
LINE IS RACING NNEWD AT ROUGHLY 50KT INTO TALLADEGA COUNTY. AHEAD
OF THIS BOW ECHO...ONE LONE SUPERCELL CONTINUES ITS NEWD TRACK ALONG
OLD BOUNDARY INTO CALHOUN COUNTY. THIS LEAD SUPERCELL SHOULD TRACK
INTO POLK/FLOYD COUNTY REGION OF GA WITHIN THE HOUR. GIVEN THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS LINEAR MCS HAS SLOWED IT APPEARS OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER ACROSS WW233 FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. FOR
THIS REASON IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO EXTEND THE WATCH IN TIME.

Severe Storms?

atlwx — 2009-05-02T09:14:41-04:00

After last nite's surprise storms, it looks like we might be under the gun again today and tonite for more severe weather...

SPC has put out a "slight" risk for the area with the biggest potential hazards being wind, hail, and lightning...

Thankfully, as of now, the tornado threat is well to our west...

Stay safe!

* YAWN *

atlwx — 2009-04-30T20:49:51-04:00

The boring, almost summer-like pattern continues.... help...

I Hate Hot Weather

atlwx — 2009-04-24T10:53:31-04:00

Mid to upper 80's today and tomorrow... Yuck.

What's Up?

atlwx — 2009-04-23T11:46:21-04:00

So...

What's up? Haven't really been a lot lately... because I'm working on an iPhone app! More details soon!

Tornado Watch Until 3AM

atlwx — 2009-04-19T20:54:26-04:00

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 855 PM UNTIL
300 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ROME GEORGIA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MACON GEORGIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 173...WW 174...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS OVER AL WILL CONTINUE INTO NWRN GA THIS
EVENING AS SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE. WHILE AIR MASS IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SHEAR IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH...EXISTING SUPERCELLS INCLUDING THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS THEY TRACK EWD
ACROSS WRN GA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

Slight Chance For Severe Sunday?

atlwx — 2009-04-17T10:08:41-04:00

SPC has put out a "slight" risk for severe weather Sunday:

Meanwhile, today and tomorrow will be nothing short of awesome! Sunny and low 70's! Enjoy it while it lasts, for the hell that is summer in Atlanta looms...

Rainy Morning & Damaging Winds

atlwx — 2009-04-13T08:34:35-04:00

Just a little over an inch of rain since last night. Numerous reports of power outages and trees down across N. Alabama and N. Georgia. There is a high wind warning in effect for areas to the north and west and just a wind advisory for the Atlanta area until 10am.

The bulk of the rain is ending from the NW leaving just scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm for the rest of today.

My First Lightning Photo

atlwx — 2009-04-10T22:00:45-04:00

My first lightning photo!

Severe Weather Ending For Atlanta

atlwx — 2009-04-10T21:35:06-04:00

Well folks... That's about it for tonite... Severe weather quickly coming to an end for the Atlanta area.

However, severe weather looks to return as soon as Sunday night... stay tuned...

Have a great weekend!!

Twitter Feeds

atlwx — 2009-04-10T16:37:55-04:00

As severe weather moves into the Atlanta area, here are a few Twitter feeds:

http://twitter.com/atlwx
http://twitter.com/DDwx
http://twitter.com/WX_ALERT
http://search.twitter.com/search?q=gawx

PDS Tornado Watch - Atlanta Area

atlwx — 2009-04-10T15:48:23-04:00

PDS Tornado Watch for NW Georgia - Including Atlanta:

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA
FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANNISTON
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 131...WW 132...WW 133...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED JETS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS EWD ACROSS WW THIS EVENING.
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE FOR LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED/DAMAGING TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG AND SOUTH OF WEDGE SURFACE FRONT OVER GA/AL
COUNTIES WITHIN WW.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

SPC Has Upgraded Risk To High

atlwx — 2009-04-10T14:52:52-04:00

SPC has bumped up severe risk to "high" for NE AL, NW GA, and parts of TN:

Still worried about the Atlanta area too... Please keep your ear out for warnings for the next 4-6 hours...

PDS Watch To NW

atlwx — 2009-04-10T12:36:05-04:00

PDS - Particularly Dangerous Situation - Tornado Watch to the North and West...

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHWEST GEORGIA
MIDDLE AND PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF CROSSVILLE
TENNESSEE TO 55 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 131...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EWD ACROSS TN VLY AREA AND INTO NRN MIDDLE AND PARTS OF ERN
TN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS MODESTLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE
TN VLY ATTM. GIVEN LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MODEST TO STRONG
ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIST REGION OF 80KT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS MAGNITUDE OF
VERTICAL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AL/SRN MIDDLE TN THIS
AFTERNOON. FCST HODOGRAPHS IN THIS CORRIDOR SUGGEST HIGH POSSIBILITY
OF A STRONG TORNADO IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN MOVE INTO THIS AREA AS
ANTICIPATED. FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS MIDDLE TN...TORNADO THREAT WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED NEAR LINE/RETREATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT FEW
HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26045.

...CARBIN

Today Could Get Ugly...

atlwx — 2009-04-10T08:57:27-04:00

Today could get ugly... Here is the latest outlook from SPC:

Concern For Tomorrow Grows...

atlwx — 2009-04-09T17:47:01-04:00

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
355 PM EDT THU APR 9 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS CLOSED LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SW
U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN MOVING EAST TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND PHASING IN WITH THE EXISTING POLAR
VORTEX. THERE WILL BE TWO PHASES OF THIS SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR CWA.
FIRST...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WILL SPREAD INTO AL/GA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AT THAT POINT WITH
DEWPOINTS 50 NORTH TO 58 SOUTH...HELICTY/SHEAR ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE.
AN AXIS OF 400+ HELICITY AND -4 LIS APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF GA
BY 12Z FRI. ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ONGOING
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY AND
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY TAKE ON THE FORM OF A SQUALL
LINE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS EARLY FRI IN NW/WC GA.
AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
MORNING...IT SHOULD DIMINISH. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BREAK DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION LEAVING A
WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...A SECONDARY LOBE OF STRONG SHEAR/HELICITY
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. LIS DROP TO -6...CAPES GREATER THAN 1500
J/KG...AND THE EHI RISES TO AN IMPRESSIVE AND VERY CONCERNING 4.5
ACROSS N GA. DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRI
AFTN/EVE...WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
TORNADOES. SPC IS BORDERING ON A MODERATE RISK FOR OUR CWA...AND
LATER OUTLOOKS MAY WELL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK AT LEAST FOR
A LARGE PORTION OF N GA FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM PHASES/LIFTS OUT
OF THE AREA AROUND 06Z SAT AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WX ENDS QUICKLY
AT THAT TIME. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE POSSIBLE IN THE NE MOUNTAINS
EARLY SAT...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY
AND PLEASANT WITH A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

Severe Wx Tomorrow?

atlwx — 2009-04-09T07:25:58-04:00

Looks like we might be in for some severe weather tomorrow... SPC has put out a "slight risk" for tomorrow:

Winter's Last Word

atlwx — 2009-04-05T19:27:02-04:00

Looks like we are definitely in for a freeze... along with a shot at a little bit of SNOW?!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
422 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>037-041>049-052>055-057-060830-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-HARALSON-CARROLL-
DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-HEARD-
COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-HENRY-
422 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT
USHERING IN VERY COLD AIR FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE SHOWERS
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA...MAINLY FROM THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA TO ATHENS AND
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN QUITE MILD RECENTLY AND THE
GROUND IS FAIRLY WARM...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OTHER THAN A DUSTING ON GRASSY
SURFACES. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES
ON THIS SITUATION.

Freeze Next Week?

atlwx — 2009-04-03T19:46:16-04:00

Models are still showing the potential for a freeze both Monday and Tuesday night. So make sure you bring your plants back inside this weekend!

Squall Line

atlwx — 2009-04-03T00:56:48-04:00

Squall line quickly approaching the Atlanta area... After this passes the area, that should be it for severe weather. ETA is within the next 2 hours...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT THU APR 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND EASTERN AL INTO NORTH GA AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC/SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 115...

VALID 030450Z - 030615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 115
CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 115 CONTINUES UNTIL 11Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
TN/NORTHERN GA INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC/SC. FARTHER WEST...IT
SEEMS PRUDENT THAT TORNADO WATCH 112 WILL BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE
SCHEDULED 07Z EXPIRATION.

RISK OF PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN TN/NORTHERN GA INTO THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NC/SC OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG DYNAMICAL
FORCING/KINEMATICS AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL JET
APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE
THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LONG DURATION/RELATIVELY SMALL
SCALE BROKEN LINEAR SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY ADVANCE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN TN...LARGELY CONCENTRATED IN A
REGION OF MAXIMIZED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS /-3MB PER 2HR/. THIS
INCLUDES A RECENT MEASURED 45 KT WIND GUST AT THE KNOXVILLE AIRPORT.
FARTHER SOUTH...PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND OF LOW
TOPPED/NON-LIGHTNING PRODUCING STORMS...WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN AL...WILL CONTINUE TO RACE ACROSS NORTH GA
OVERNIGHT...POSING A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS EVEN AMIDST LIMITED BUOYANCY.

Also expect the Severe T-Storm Watch to be canceled soon after the squall line passes. That said, it has been a VERY long week for me, so I'm signing off for the evening...

Oh yeah... freeze next week is a definite possibility... more on that tomorrow... Good nite!!!

Severe T-Storm Watch

atlwx — 2009-04-02T23:50:48-04:00

SPC has put out a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for a good chunk of north Georgia. This includes the Atlanta metor area...

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EAST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1135 PM
UNTIL 700 AM EDT.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ATLANTA GEORGIA TO 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF BRISTOL TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 112...WW 114...

DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED TSTM BAND FROM E OF BHM TO NEAR CSV EXPECTED
TO BE MAIN FOCUS FOR LOW LVL ASCENT AS WRN TN UPR VORT CONTINUES
ENEWD. DESPITE MEAGER SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...STRONG MID/UPR LVL
ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED JET STREAK...AND STRONG LOW LVL
WLY SURGE BEHIND STORM LINE...SUGGEST CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
SCALE BOWS WITH DMGG WIND AS LINE ENCOUNTERS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24045.

Watch?

atlwx — 2009-04-02T23:20:27-04:00

Watch possible?

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT THU APR 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TN/NORTHERN GA AND FAR WESTERN NC/SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 030300Z - 030400Z

DOWNSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH 112...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
SOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TN/NORTHERN GA AND THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NC/SC.

BROKEN LINEAR SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY RACE NORTHEASTWARD AND
POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS
MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AT THIS TIME...WHILE A LOW TOPPED/NON-LIGHTNING
PRODUCING LINE CONTINUES A RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE ACROSS NORTHERN AL.
IN SPITE OF WEAK BUOYANCY...VERY STRONG KINEMATICS ASSOCIATED WITH A
RELATIVELY COMPACT/POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID LEVEL JET ATOP BACKED
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR WIND
DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES /MAINLY EASTERN TN/. AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

..GUYER.. 04/03/2009

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON 36468436 36448269 35118236 33198345 32678526 36468436

Tornado Watch to Our West

atlwx — 2009-04-02T20:08:36-04:00

SPC has put out a Tornado Watch to our west...

Today's Severe Threat

atlwx — 2009-04-02T08:42:18-04:00

Looks to be a busy day in the land of weather, especially to our south and west... However, we could have a few strong to severe storms here in the Atlanta area as well. Please keep your ear out for watches and warnings today.

Here are the latest outlooks from SPC:

Severe Tomorrow?

atlwx — 2009-04-01T20:29:40-04:00

SPC has outlined a sizable "moderate risk" area to our west and south:

Keep your eye on the weather situation tomorrow! More info in the morning...

Oh... and one more thing... cold next week? a freeze? the "S" word? hmmm....

Severe Wx Thursday?

atlwx — 2009-03-31T10:11:20-04:00

SPC has put out a "slight risk" for this Thursday:

Click here for more severe weather information.

My Apologies...

atlwx — 2009-03-30T09:33:23-04:00

Sorry about the lack of posts... Especially given the fact that there was a threat of severe weather.

I had a family emergency that I needed to deal with. Everything is fine now, and I look forward to catching back up on everything in the world of weather.

- Paul

Rain Today - Severe Tomorrow

atlwx — 2009-03-27T10:05:59-04:00

Very rainy morning here in Atlanta... Expect the rain to continue for a couple more hours before tapering off this afternoon. However, more rain is on the way late tonight into tomorrow.

Here is the latest QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) from HPC:

Still some uncertainty about the severe potential for tomorrow. As of now, it looks like the area will be under the gun.

SPC has us under a "slight" risk for severe tomorow:

However... SPC has the probabilistic outlook at 45%:

That's fairly high, but uncertainty is keeping SPC from updating the risk beyond "slight".

Update On Rain And Severe Wx...

atlwx — 2009-03-26T23:01:40-04:00

So... Where is all that rain that the QPF maps were showing? Well... part of it just hasn't gotten here yet... and convection along the gulf cut off some of the moisture.

Here is the latest QPF map from HPC:

You can see that the amounts up our way have decreased a little. However, 10+ inches down in the Panhandle!? Wow...

Still watching the potential for severe weather in the area for Saturday. More on that tomorrow...

Severe Weather?

atlwx — 2009-03-26T10:01:33-04:00

Looks like it was a rough night over to our west, and there is a tornado watch this morning to the south. But for the Atlanta area, don't expect any severe weather until tomorrow/Saturday...

Here are SPC's outlooks for the next couple of days:

We also still have a LOT of rain coming over the next couple of days. Here is the QPF outlook from HPC:

The rain is certainly good news for the drought situation. Stay safe!

The Deluge Cometh

atlwx — 2009-03-24T23:28:50-04:00

What drought?

Heavy Rain And Maybe Severe

atlwx — 2009-03-23T21:40:00-04:00

If you have anything you need to do outside, better get it done tomorrow afternoon. Rain looks to be the story for the remainder of the week.

HPC's QPF outlook for the next 5 days shows us getting 4+ inches of rain. Excellent news as we are still very much in a drought.

With this much needed rain also comes the possibility of severe weather. SPC has our area highlighted for this coming weekend.

Meanwhile, crazy weather on the plains... Severe weather giving way to a blizzard... Spring has definitely arrived! Fun times ahead!

Mount Redoubt Erupts

atlwx — 2009-03-23T09:48:02-04:00

Mount Redoubt has finally erupted!

Mount Redoubt Volcano, 106 miles southwest of Anchorage, Alaska, erupted explosively March 22, 2009, at approximately 10:38 PM AKDT, sending a cloud of volcanic ash to an estimated 50,000 feet above sea level. Scientists from the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) are monitoring the volcano closely as the eruption continues.

Alaska Volcano Observatory:
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2168
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/

Anchorage Daily News:
http://www.adn.com/volcano/story/732796.html

The Calm Is Coming To An End

atlwx — 2009-03-23T09:07:45-04:00

Hope you enjoyed the beautiful weekend!

The awesome weather we have been enjoying will be coming to a close... the end of this week looks to be interesting... More details soon...

Average Last Freeze Dates

atlwx — 2009-03-21T17:59:37-04:00

So... are we done with cold weather until the Fall? Maybe... Maybe not... I still feel we will have at least one more freeze, but I don't base that on anything other than "gut"...

Meanwhile, here is some info from the NW on what is typically the last freeze date.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/lastfrz.shtml

The map below shows the average dates when various areas of the state see the last freeze of Spring. This is determined "climatologically", or by looking back through history.

Another way to look at the map: your chance of experiencing the last freeze of the season is less than 50 percent after the dates shown for your location.

Latest Spring Freezes on Record...
Atlanta : April 25 (1910)
Athens : April 21 (1953)
Columbus : April 21 (1953)
Macon : April 20 (1983)

Spring

atlwx — 2009-03-20T19:25:32-04:00

Today is the first day of Astronomical Spring. The weather will certainly feel like spring the next few days too!

Unfortunately, the nice weather will not help the drought situation. We are really going to be in trouble if we don't get some good rain in here soon. Looks like the next shot at rain will be late next week.

Enjoy the weekend!

The Calm Before The Something

atlwx — 2009-03-17T11:30:27-04:00

The rain is gone, and it looks to be a beautiful week (except maybe a passing shower Thursday). Even my mostly wintertime heart is looking forward to a little nice weather. Especially Saturday which, as of now, looks to be about pefect! Sunny and 64!

However, what looms over the horizon? I have a feeling that "something" is coming. Models hint that it is going to get cold again, but what will usher it in? Will it be severe or wintery? Both? And just how cold will it get?

My gut says a severe event is coming. Alright, any fool this time of year has good odds of being right with that statement. But enjoy this quiet period as "something" looms...

1 Year Ago...

atlwx — 2009-03-14T12:19:48-04:00

It was just a year ago today that an EF-2 tornado blew through downtown Atlanta, and I remember this storm vividly.

I was sitting on my couch catching up on episodes of LOST (which I've unfortunately gotten sucked into)... saw a flash of lightening in the distance and immediately had a strange feeling. I didn't recall that we were supposed to have severe weather until the next day... but that feeling in my gut stayed with me.

I started following the storm on radar as the lightening became really intense. I saw the velocity couplet and knew things were about to get interesting. Being the sensible person I am, I went outside!

The air was disconcertingly still. Just lots of lightening and thunder... no rain... no wind... nothing. Suddenly very large hail started to fall. The air continued to feel unnaturally still. Not good.

Then came the roar above. It sounded like it was really windy high above the trees, but nothing at ground level yet. It got louder and the tops of the trees started to really move. Intense and very scary... I knew what was happening. I just felt it in my gut. Curiosity and awe kept me frozen in place.

I live in a 1940's bungalow with no basement (no foundation built on piles). My center hallway closet was probably the best place to be, but I didn't go there. I just stood with my kitchen door open, watching everything going on outside. I just couldn't move.

The tornado touched down just two miles south of my location.

* * *

* * *

I keep a running history of notable weather events for Atlanta and update/add information often.

You can find the entry (including more pictures and videos) for the 2008 Atlanta Tornado here:
http://atlwx.com/wxhistory/files/20080314-atlanta_tornado.html

16 Years Ago...

atlwx — 2009-03-13T12:06:13-04:00

Atlanta was a different place 16 years ago today. I remember standing on the North Ave. bridge looking out at the barren, white ribbon beneath me that was the "downtown connector". Hearing the wind howling through the Bank of America tower. I was part of a group of hungry Georgia Tech undergrads that were devastated to find the Varsity closed. As we walked back toward campus into the howling north-west winds and heavy SNOW that felt like pieces of sand ripping my face off, I thought I was going to die.

I went to bed the previous night, hearing and believing that it was going to SNOW. It was the weekend before finals and I had crashed on a friend's couch in a dorm at Tech. I woke up sometime before dawn to go to the bathroom. I recall seeing a couple of flashes of lightning in the window and thinking to myself "guess it isn't SNOWING yet"...

As I walked to the bathroom down the hall, I passed the glass, front doors of the dorm. I just about fainted. There was SNOW on the ground that was suddenly illuminated by another flash of lightning! The bathroom would wait. I ran down the hall and grabbed my coat, woke a few folks up and dashed outside.

I was immediately treated to another flash of lightning and then the craziest sound I have ever heard. The muffled rumble of thunder across a completely white landscape. I think I literally cried. This was unlike any weather I had ever experienced before.

*           *           *

The "Blizzard of '93" is also known as the "March Superstorm" and the "Storm of the Century". Atlanta officially received only 4 inches of SNOW. It was more like 6-7 inches in midtown Atlanta and increased dramatically as you went north.

*           *           *

Other Personal Accounts, Links & Blogs:

Remembering the "Blizzard of 1993" (NWS - Birmingham Office):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/significant_events/1993/Blizzard_of_1993/index.php

National Climatic Data Center - Technical Report:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9301/tr9301.pdf

"A Storm For the Ages" by Daniel L (NWS):
http://nsstc.uah.edu/cwb/?p=1332

*           *           *

James Spann's Coverage (Alabama)

Weather Channel Coverage

*           *           *

I keep a running history of notable weather events for Atlanta and update/add information often.

You can find the entry for the Blizzard of '93 here:
http://atlwx.com/wxhistory/files/19930313-blizzard_93.html

Winter 2009 Is Done

atlwx — 2009-03-11T12:15:39-04:00

Another warm day... bleh... But rain will be on the increase... Yea!!!

Oh, by the way, winter 2009* is for the most part - dead... as if you didn't already know that. Recent hints at winter weather turned out to be completely bogus. Are we surprised?! If I could pour any liquid of my choosing on the computers that run all these stupid models, I would. I hate them. Pain and suffering are all they have caused this year. Bad models! Bad!

While I'm proclaiming winter 2009 dead, I won't say that it won't get cold again. "Dead" to me means that there is no longer any real hope at all of seeing my favourite weather in the world - SNOW. I think we will indeed have at least another day or two where temps go below freezing. The last freeze is historically (average) around March 30th. I even think we will see one late season freeze sometime in April.

Thank God for our SNOW a week and a half ago. I was really worried that winter 2009 was going to go down without any wintery fun.

R.I.P. - Winter 2009... Bring on Winter 2010!!!

* Of course it is really winter 2008/2009, but you know what I mean... oh yeah, and this is only for the Atlanta area. For example, Lake Superior froze over, so this past winter wasn't a dud for everyone.

Warm

atlwx — 2009-03-10T14:52:11-04:00

Very warm today with highs near 80 in most places.

***YUCK***

I can enjoy nice days in the late summer into fall, but not in the springtime. I hate watching the thermometer creep up every day with the knowledge that summer is but around the corner. September cannot get here soon enough!

The warmth will abate some in the coming days as more clouds and moisture overrun the area. This weekend doesn't look to be as nice as this past weekend. And certainly no where near as nice as the previous weekend (remember the SNOW?)! Right now, it looks like we will have cooler and rain on the increase for the rest of the week into the weekend.

Daylight Savings Time Is Stupid

atlwx — 2009-03-07T20:18:01-05:00

Don't forget to set your clocks ahead. The ridiculous and antiquated daylight savings time begins tonite.

Why do we still do this? Why can't people just get up earlier if they want more daylight? How many more car accidents will happen Monday because of this stupid holdout from farming and trains?

Whatever. I'm more of "Z" time kinda guy anyhow...

Added A New Section To Site

atlwx — 2009-03-06T11:33:55-05:00

I added a new section to the site: Atlanta Weather History

This section will focus on significant weather events in Atlanta. It is done in a "blog" style. You should be able to click the categories/tags on the right for specific years, months, or type of event. I plan to add and update content on a regular basis.

If you have any suggestions or ideas for events, please scroll to the bottom of this page and click "Contact Me" to send an email.

Drought And Spring Outlook (Updated)

atlwx — 2009-03-05T19:53:00-05:00

Very minor dent made in the drought with the heavy rain/SNOW last week. The outlook (bottom below) calls for some relief for the west side of the state (of Georgia). But I don't think we see much improvement in the drought situation any time soon. At least things are not as bad here as they are in Texas. Wow.

March, April and May look to be drier than normal as we are still stuck in this La Nina pattern from hell. Even worse, the rain we do get may come with more severe weather than "normal" the second half/end of March well into April. Think last year, but shifted out a couple of weeks (remember the Atlanta Tornado?).

I also think we will see some more cold weather too (maybe even another shot at frozen fun?!). A late season freeze in April (the kind that does serious damage to budding trees) would not surprise me either. Don't be fooled into thinking spring is finally here this weekend as temps push 80! Winter isn't quite ready to die... yet...

Enjoy the near "perfect" weather the next couple of days!

Beautiful Weekend Ahead

atlwx — 2009-03-04T08:39:02-05:00

After I got my wish for SNOW and cold weather, I suppose it is only fair for those folks who like warm and boring to get their day in the sun. The rest of the week warms up each day into a dry and sunny weekend with temps in the mid 70's. Definitely beautiful weather that even I can get into. Now if I could just get past the fact that this means summer is on the way... YUCK!!!

Enjoy the nice weather!

Georgia SNOWFALL Map

atlwx — 2009-03-03T08:45:56-05:00

The NWS office out of Peachtree City (FFC) has put out a SNOWFALL map for the March 1st storm.

As you can see, the band is very narrow. Typical of an upper level driven system. Those of you who actually got SNOW should be very grateful! At the height of the storm, I had roughly 2 inches on the ground. If it had been below freezing and/or overnight, I'm sure it would have been somewhere closer to 6-8 inches. So those even luckier folks in the greens and oranges could have gotten nearly a foot had the surface conditions been a few degrees colder.

I hope we can see one more SNOWFALL map this year before the misery of Spring and Summer arrives. The odds are not in our favour, but they aren't zero. Keep praying and hoping!

The Memories

atlwx — 2009-03-02T16:21:36-05:00

Photos of yesterday's SNOW event (click to view more):

An interesting time-lapse video of yesterday's SNOW event:

Sadly, It Is Over...

atlwx — 2009-03-01T16:24:42-05:00

SNOW is quickly coming to an end from west to east. Rain has been mixing back in with the SNOW as the temp has climbed back up from 33 to 35 as we no longer have the dynamic cooling in place. Expect most of the SNOW to melt before temps go back down. The wind is also picking up and will help dry the roads before nightfall. Unfortunately, work and school are on for tomorrow. GRRRRRR... I'm sure there will be some slick spots though, so please be careful.

I hate seeing melting SNOW. It really is just a sad moment for me. But I am grateful for the SNOW while it lasted... and THUNDERSNOW!!! Just wow! I wouldn't call today epic, but it certainly was memorable.

Got some great pictures today. I will posted them either later tonite or sometime tomorrow.

THUNDERSNOW

atlwx — 2009-03-01T15:44:09-05:00

I've heard a few claps of thunder today. I haven't seen/heard THUNDERSNOW since the Blizzard of '93. AWESOME!!!

A Little Late: Winter Storm Warning

atlwx — 2009-03-01T14:07:11-05:00

FFC is a little late issuing this...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED FROM RAIN
TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AS COLD AIR ALOFT FILTERED IN FROM THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE ALREADY ON THE GROUND IN THE WARNED AREAS.

GAZ022>025-027-032>039-042>060-066>071-078-079-089-020500-
/O.UPG.KFFC.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0001.090301T1837Z-090302T0500Z/
FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-
BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-
SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-
TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-
JASPER-PUTNAM-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-HARRIS-
TALBOT-MUSCOGEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...COLUMBUS
137 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO GAINESVILLE AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO WASHINGTON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AT THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...WITH A TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON TELEVISION... RADIO...THE INTERNET OR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO. IF THE STORM SYSTEM OR COLD AIR INTENSIFIES
FURTHER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING AND WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

FINALLY!

atlwx — 2009-03-01T11:40:43-05:00

IT IS FINALLY SNOWING IN ATLANTA!!! WOO HOO!!!

Sleet

atlwx — 2009-03-01T09:44:27-05:00

Just had a wild burst of sleet here. Temp is finally coming down at a steady rate now. Hopefully this is the beginning of an epic day!!!

Waiting

atlwx — 2009-03-01T09:03:33-05:00

Waiting... Hoping... Praying...

Beautiful Map

atlwx — 2009-02-28T17:17:59-05:00

Brings a tear to my eye...

HPC Snow Probability

atlwx — 2009-02-28T16:14:05-05:00

This is nice looking...

Winter Weather Advisory

atlwx — 2009-02-28T15:45:54-05:00

FFC put out a Winter Weather Advisory!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...

.A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
AND EXPOSED SURFACES.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>075-078>084-
089>096-010445-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0003.090301T1500Z-090302T0500Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-
MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...COLUMBUS...WARNER ROBINS
341 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ADVISORY AREA COVERS MUCH OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUSSETA TO PERRY TO
MILLEDGEVILLE TO WEST OF AUGUSTA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE STATE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE CAUSING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW.

THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE A
SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THIS PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE A LAYER
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME OF THE SNOW TO MELT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. GROUND
SURFACES WILL ALSO BE WARM DUE TO THE RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES AND
SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.
HOWEVER...IF A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS IT COULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ON ROADS.

PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON TELEVISION... RADIO...THE INTERNET OR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO. IF THE STORM SYSTEM OR COLD AIR INTENSIFIES
FURTHER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

SNOW

atlwx — 2009-02-28T11:57:49-05:00

Things are looking good right now for the Atlanta area. Of course this is all subject to change, but let's not think about that right now.

As of the time of this blog entry, I think the Atlanta area will see SNOW around daybreak Sunday morning. The SNOW could be heavy at times in some areas, but the ground is very warm and will limit accumulations. My ball park forecast for accumulations is 0.5-4 inches across the area. Heaviest SNOW band will be very narrow, so it is possible that some may see nothing while 10 miles away gets 4 inches.

Now, some eye candy!!

*        *        *

The NWS has put "SNOW Likely" in the forecast:

Sunday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

*        *        *

HPC Snow Accumulation Probability Of At Least 4 Inches:

*        *        *

Special Weather Statement:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-010200-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA SUNDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN EXIT OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...BEGINNING AS LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA...AND THEN BECOMING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT OVER
WESTERN GEORGIA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA BEFORE PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...CLOSER
TO THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STORM SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...AREAS NEAR COLUMBUS AND AMERICUS COULD SEE A SWITCH TO
SNOW BEFORE AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA.

UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS CONCERNING ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE GROUND
STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND THE SNOW MELTING AS IT FALLS INTO THE
WARMER AIR NEAR THE GROUND...ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INITIALLY SHOULD
MELT. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND IN THE LOW 40S OVER AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON. HOWEVER...AS THE COLDER AIR PRESSES EAST
AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD RESULT IN
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A CORDELE TO LOUISVILLE LINE COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES
SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HOWEVER...IF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
OCCUR...ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD FALL ON
ROADWAYS. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CORDELE TO LOUISVILLE LINE WILL SEE
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE TELEVISION
OR RADIO STATION...FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR
ADVISORIES ON THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

* * *

The Weather Channel:

Let's hope it all pans out! Heck, let's hope it's epic and we get hammered!!!

Nail Biting Begins

atlwx — 2009-02-27T23:27:31-05:00

Models are all over the place with the potential SNOW storm. Thankfully, we will soon be out of the "model madness" and into "nowcasting". Things should be a bit more clear in the morning. Well, as clear as they can be with an ULL.

Stay sane!

SNOW Now In NWS Forecast For Atlanta

atlwx — 2009-02-27T14:13:47-05:00

FFC has now put SNOW in the forecast grids for the Atlanta area:

Saturday Night: A chance of rain before 1am, then rain and snow likely. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow before 11am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

* * *

Of course there is no mention of accumulations yet (I'm betting they won't until tomorrow - *if* there is actually still the chance of accumulations). Sunday's forecast says back to all rain, but that too remains to be seen.

Latest model runs are still good for the Atlanta area (in that we aren't out of the running). This could be epic, major disappointment, or mildly amusing. Nothing is off the table yet.

Keep hope alive!

Backing Off Severe Threat

atlwx — 2009-02-27T10:00:22-05:00

The threat for severe weather doesn't look as great today as it was looking yesterday. SPC no longer has the Atlanta area at a "threat level" today. Still has a "slight risk" for tomorrow (though I think that will be dropped at some point).

The main threat today into tonight will be heavy rain and maybe a few strong thunderstorms. However, keep an eye on the weather today in case things change.

So... Is It Going To SNOW?!?

atlwx — 2009-02-27T08:57:01-05:00

There is the potential for very heavy rains and severe storms over the next 24 hours. But the really big question is "Is it going to SNOW"?!?

Unfortunately, the answer isn't clear. But as of RIGHT NOW, I think it will. How Much? I think 2-6 inches is not out of the question. However, the ground is very warm and temps will be near or above freezing. So I don't believe we'll see that much SNOW actually "stick".

Of course all of this could change by this evening. Knowing our recent luck, the odds are good it will change to someone else getting SNOW and Atlanta gets nothing. Although things could change in our favour and we get half a foot or more. We really won't know for sure until it happens, but dreaming of the threat is half the fun! So for now, life is good!

Just as a tease, here is a graphic generated by the 6z run of the NAM... shows roughly 8 inches for Atlanta (but don't count on it):

Keep hope alive! Pray, meditate, flush ice cubes down the toilet. Do whatever. LET IT SNOW!!!

Flood Watch

atlwx — 2009-02-27T08:23:48-05:00

HPC has backed off just a LITTLE bit on the precip totals. Meanwhile, a Flood Watch has been issued that includes the Atlanta area.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
353 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>055-057-271700-
/O.NEW.KFFC.FA.A.0002.090227T2100Z-090228T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY
353 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* A LARGE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED
TO PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION TODAY. A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FORCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ALABAMA AND MOVE INTO
GEORGIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY OVER NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL
CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4
INCHES POSSIBLE CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO MADISON TO
WASHINGTON.

* THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME RIVERS...STREAMS AND
CREEKS TO RISE TO LEVELS THAT RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN URBAN AREAS AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ALONG LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS. IF YOU ARE IN THE
WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF
YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...AND BE
READY FOR ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.

Heavy Rain & Severe Storms

atlwx — 2009-02-26T23:17:58-05:00

Heavy rain and the potential for severe storms will be the story over the next 36 hours. Severe storms are already showing up in AK, TN, and MS.

HPC shows nearly 5 inches of liquid precip for the Atlanta area over the next 5 days. Most of that falling tomorrow into Saturday.

Of course the other big story is the potential Southeastern SNOW storm. Models still show a storm, but as expected, each run shows a different area getting slammed. I'd say anyone from the Mississippi River to the East Coast has a shot. We'll (hopefully) narrow things down a little better tomorrow. Keep hope alive!!!

Update: 12z NAM & GFS Still Good

atlwx — 2009-02-26T11:56:57-05:00

12z runs of both NAM and GFS still show a SNOW storm. Too early to get into specifics, but as of now, someone looks to be getting a good dumping in the SE. Let's just hope that includes Atlanta!!!

Cautiously Optimistic

atlwx — 2009-02-26T09:30:16-05:00

Ok... The upcoming possibility is very complicated. It involves a cold-core upper level low. So the forecast will be very tricky even up to the event itself (if it even happens).

Here is a snippet of what the GFS is showing as of the 6z run:

Here is a snippet of what the NAM is showing as of the 6z run:

So you can see, the GFS and NAM are pretty close in agreement on the placement of the ULL. If things unfold anywhere close to this, someone in the deep south is going to get a good SNOW. Even more interesting, this critter takes its time moving out! But remember, this is still days off. There is plenty of time for it to disappear a la Groundhogzilla...

Let's hope the 12z runs continue the show!

Severe Weather Potential

atlwx — 2009-02-26T08:43:54-05:00

Lots of interesting weather potential over the next few days into the weekend.

First up, the severe weather threat. SPC has put out a "slight risk" that includes the Atlanta for both Friday AND Saturday:

Friday Severe Threat

Saturday Severe Threat

It's that time of the year, so naturally the ingredients are there for severe weather. We will have fairly good winds aloft with high shear/helicity values. The only limiting factor may be instability. This definitely needs to be watched.

As for the other interesting weather possibility... Stay tuned for the next post...

Miracle Or Despair

atlwx — 2009-02-26T00:38:50-05:00

More interesting model runs for this weekend...

Will there be a miracle? Or will there be utter despair? I'm going to bed now and hope for the best. More in the morning...

Slight Risk Friday?

atlwx — 2009-02-25T11:40:41-05:00

SPC has placed the NW part of Georgia in a "slight risk" for Friday. This includes the NW part of the metro Atlanta area.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CST WED FEB 25 2009

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID-SOUTH TO SRN
APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO EVOLVE FROM NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO
BROADLY CYCLONIC OVER ERN 2/3 CONUS...AS SERIES OF NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTRIBUTES TO HEIGHT FALLS FROM CENTRAL/NRN
ROCKIES TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONGEST OF THESE PERTURBATIONS --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM COASTAL BC OVER CENTRAL
BC -- SHOULD PIVOT SLOWLY SWD THEN EWD AS CLOSED LOW...ACROSS
PACIFIC NW DAYS 1-2. THIS FEATURE THEN SHOULD ACCELERATE ESEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAY-3...WHEREUPON CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD BEGINS TO APPEAR IN GUIDANCE REGARDING AMPLITUDE OF SYSTEM.
DOWNSTREAM/WEAKER TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT OFFSHORE NRN CA -- IS FCST TO
PHASE WITH NRN STREAM PERTURBATION THROUGH DAY-2. THIS FEATURE THEN
SHOULD MOVE FROM VICINITY LM EWD TO INLAND PORTIONS MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS PERIOD...ATTAINING MORE POSITIVE TILT WITH TIME.

ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD EJECT FROM SRN ONT POSITION AROUND
27/12Z EWD TO ENEWD TOWARD NRN NEW ENGLAND AND LOWER ST LAWRENCE
RIVER AREA BY 28/12Z. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY IN PERIOD. TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT
SHOULD STALL ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION...PERHAPS WITH WEAK/ATTACHED
CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHG FROM CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY LINGERS REGARDING POSITIONING OF
FRONT AND STRENGTH/LOCATION OF WAVE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS
REGION.

...MID-SOUTH TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
PRIOR/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. LOW
LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL THETAE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE
EARLY-PERIOD MCS MOVING EWD OR ESEWD ACROSS REGION. FCST DEEP-LAYER
WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED
PARCELS AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR THREAT...WITH HAIL AND
PERHAPS WIND DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF NEAR-SFC STABLE AIR.

DURING DAY...INTENSIFICATION OF MORNING ACTIVITY AND/OR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS POSSIBLE...WITH SFC-BASED
SVR POSSIBLE. RESIDUAL/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
CONSIDERABLE SBCINH DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING SHARP SRN CUT-OFF TO CONVECTION. SFC HEATING IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN CAPPING ALONG SRN RIM OF CLOUD/PRECIP AREA. STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF MAX LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEPEND ON AFOREMENTIONED
CYCLOGENESIS AS WELL AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALONG FRONT AND/OR
BOUNDARIES FROM OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HOWEVER...MOST
PROGS REASONABLY INDICATE SUFFICIENT CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION
OVER THIS REGION...AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...TO SUPPORT
SVR OUTLOOK.

SOME BACKBUILDING MAY OCCUR ALONG FRONT...ACROSS PORTIONS
AR/LA...LATER IN PERIOD...HOWEVER SVR POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL
FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

This Weekend

atlwx — 2009-02-25T08:18:32-05:00

Looks like we might get some beneficial rain in here on Friday and Saturday. Rain totals aren’t looking quite as high as they did yesterday. However, still shows generally an inch or so for the Atlanta area.

There have been whispers of wintery precip over the past day or two. The Euro did briefly show a fantasy SNOW storm, but of course it went away. Everyone knows it doesn’t SNOW here in the Southeast anymore.

Mostly Boring

atlwx — 2009-02-23T09:33:35-05:00

A Severe Boring Warning is in effect for the Atlanta area. Boring conditions are expected in our area for most of the week. The soonest we can expect the boring to lift is Thursday night. Meanwhile, nap time!

ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

Spring Outlook

atlwx — 2009-02-22T11:03:49-05:00

No doubt about it, this winter has just sucked. So what is in store for this spring?

Well... We are STILL in the clutches of the evil La Nina. So it will be mostly dry with near normal temps.

Here is a look from CPC for March, April, and May:

This is NOT good news. The drought is quickly returning to hard hit areas that have suffered the last few years. A dry spring will almost certainly bring a miserable summer. Without sufficient moisture in the soil, we will enter a nasty feedback system where hot and dry will feed on itself. Lack of soil moisture will cause more of the sun’s energy to go into heating the surface with less going to evaporation of water. This will also hinder the development of the typical afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

I hate it when it gets above 70. So I am NOT a happy camper thinking about this summer.

It is clear that La Nina has got to go. She has WAY overstayed her welcome. Actually she was never welcome begin with. Someone please show that b!tch out the door already!!

Nothing

atlwx — 2009-02-22T10:49:24-05:00

Nothing happened last nite. Big freakin’ surprise.

The "S" Word?

atlwx — 2009-02-21T16:23:29-05:00

Yes. There is SNOW in the forecast this evening. Too bad it will be a non-event. There is indeed a chance that we might see a brief period of SNOW, but it won’t be heavy or last very long.

A brief dusting for the northern parts of Atlanta at the very best. Reality is more like a brief tease that gets you excited with a quick slap in the face as you see the sky quickly clearing.

Winter 2009 has just been an evil, cruel b!tch. It has only made me bitter and grumpy. It will not be missed! Only 283 days (roughly) until I MIGHT have hope again.

Cold Returns

atlwx — 2009-02-19T08:06:35-05:00

The cold returns for the next couple of days. Though it will be a mostly useless cold. I haven’t really talked about it, but the models were showing a possibility of SNOW for this weekend. Of course those possibilities have now gone the way that every other &*%^$@ possibility has this lame winter 2009. Rinse, Repeat. Die La Nina, you stupid b&$^&%, die.

The Final Throws

atlwx — 2009-02-18T20:30:18-05:00

*** TORNADO WATCH EXPIRED EARLY FOR NORTH ATLANTA AREA ***

It looks like we are at the tail end of this severe weather event. The tornado watch has been lifted for the city of Atlanta and north (but continues south of the airport for now). Still a good storm with lots of lightning and a little hail here in midtown now. It’s kinda nice actually.

Well.. That’s pretty much it for me tonight. LOST is coming on. Glad the severe weather is moving out. I’d be all sorts of bent out of shape if I lost my satellite signal.

Storm To The West

atlwx — 2009-02-18T17:14:02-05:00

Large rotating super cell on the Al/Ga border is moving east.

SEVERE UPDATE

atlwx — 2009-02-18T16:39:59-05:00

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS INTO NERN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24...

VALID 182122Z - 182245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 24 CONTINUES.

THROUGH 23Z...EXPECT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES TO EXIST OVER NERN PORTION
OF WW AREA...NAMELY FROM JUST NE OF BHM TO NEAR OR E OF RMG.

AS OF 21Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SEVERE STORMS
/INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ OVER CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES IN FAR NWRN
GA AND ST. CLAIR COUNTY AL MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 45-50 KT. AIR
MASS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER NERN GA IS RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZING AND MODIFICATION OF 18Z ATL/BHM SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT
SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION
TO SMALLER T/TD SPREADS AND RESULTANT LOWER LCL HEIGHTS OVER NERN AL
INTO NWRN GA...LOCAL VWPS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE NOTABLY
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KT AND EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2. AS SUCH...ONGOING SUPERCELLS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER W...AN ISOLATED STORM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER LAUDERDALE
COUNTY MS AS OF 21Z. GIVEN THE RATHER STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
AND SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH CNTRL
AL...THIS STORM MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

TORNADO WATCH FOR ATLANTA UNTIL 11PM

atlwx — 2009-02-18T15:34:04-05:00

SPC has issued a Tornado watch that includes the Atlanta area:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 25
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
A LARGE PART OF GEORGIA
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ATHENS GEORGIA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOTHAN ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...WW 24...

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS AL INTO WRN GA IN
CONCERT WITH THE DESTABILIZATION THAT IS OCCURRING. WITH VERY
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE EVENING...DEVELOPING FROM W
TO E. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26045.

PART OF ATLANTA NOW IN MODERATE RISK

atlwx — 2009-02-18T14:59:52-05:00

SPC has shifted the “moderate risk” for severe weather to include part of the Atlanta area:

It is likely that a tornado watch will be issued that will include all or part of the Atlanta area.

Tornado Watch Issued To Our West

atlwx — 2009-02-18T14:12:16-05:00

SPC has issued a TORNADO WATCH for a large area just west of Atlanta:

Click here for more details:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0024.html

Please keep an eye on the weather this afternoon. There is a good chance that the watch will be extended to the Atlanta area later today.

Severe Storms Today. Weekend Buzz?

atlwx — 2009-02-18T08:02:59-05:00

It was fairly chilly when I walked outside to check my rain gauge. Quick glance at the thermometer showed 47. Doesn’t feel like severe weather outside at the moment.

But don’t let the cool morning fool you! Warmer temps and higher dew-points are on the way. A lot of shear and helicity are already in place upstairs. The stage is set for the possibility of severe weather later today.

SPC has put us in a slight risk (with moderate next door and to our south):

I don’t think today will be a big event for the Atlanta area. By that I mean it won’t be an “outbreak”. Can’t rule out an isolated tornado, but the main threat will be severe thunderstorms with the usual damaging winds, hail, and lightning.

Keep your eye on the weather today!

Meanwhile... Folks are buzzing about this weekend. After having my hopes dashed earlier this month (and all winter), I’m not getting excited about anything yet. If the buzz is still around tomorrow, then I might discuss it further.

He Who Must Must Not Be Named...

atlwx — 2009-02-17T21:26:08-05:00

Something which cannot be named has shown up today in the models. However, we can’t talk about it. We all know what happened last time.

Severe Storms Tomorrow?

atlwx — 2009-02-17T09:11:03-05:00

Watching out for the possibility of severe storms tomorrow. SPC has put out a “slight risk” for tomorrow.

Whatever Happened To Wintertime Gulf Lows?

atlwx — 2009-02-15T23:27:16-05:00

Most substantial snowfalls for Atlanta are associated with storm systems that form in and track along the northern Gulf of Mexico. These SNOW producing Gulf lows were more common back in the 80’s into the early 90’s. (It really did SNOW more when I was a kid!)

Significant SNOW producing storms for Atlanta generally fall into two different categories.

* * *

1.) The first type (and best since the SNOW actually sticks) forms after a significant arctic front moves through. The storm develops on the stalled boundary of the arctic air in the gulf and tracks toward the NE. With this type of storm, the coverage of SNOW can be across a fairly large area.

SNOW JAM ’82

I was just a little boy when this happened, and I don’t remember much about it. However, I have heard the stories for as long as I can remember. Heavy SNOW started falling just before rush hour on Tuesday, January 12, 1982. Many commuters who started home never made it with their vehicles. Some were forced to stay the night at their place of work. Cold air was definitely in place for this event. The previous two days saw lows BELOW ZERO! I don’t think it gets anymore Winter than this...

I-85 and Peachtree Road (Amtrak Station) - Atlanta Snow Jam ’82

* * *

2.) The second type is a cold core upper level low. This type of storm can pull in cold air from the upper atmosphere and advect to the surface. The SNOW can be very heavy with this type but is generally confined to a very narrow band. It is also interesting to note that with ULL’s it can be fairly warm at the surface (well into the 40’s) and still SNOW.

LATE SEASON SNOW - MARCH 1983

A cold core low dumped 8 inches of SNOW on Atlanta on March 24, 1983. The band was very narrow, but Atlanta wound up in the bulls-eye!

* * *

Of course the “Gulf Low to End All Lows” was the “Super Storm” of 1993. I remember the “Storm of the Century” very well, but I’ll save that for a post next month (near the anniversary).

The pattern of the last decade(+) has not favored SNOW storms. I hope to do a future post on the cause of this, and if there is any hope that this horrible pattern will end.

Here’s to the return of the Wintertime Gulf Low!!!

Drought Continues - Same Old Tune...

atlwx — 2009-02-13T09:42:21-05:00

Drought conditions worsened even further over the last week...

Meanwhile, things continue to look grim for those wanting Winter Weather. Models continue marching storms northward each run. No real arctic air for the SE. Same old %^$&#! story...

The only “good news” is that we might be entering a brief “wet” period. Though “wet” is relative.

I’m ready to kick both the Drought and Winter 2009 to where the sun don’t shine! I’m over both of them!

The End?

atlwx — 2009-02-12T18:19:15-05:00

I’m beginning to accept and make peace with the fact that Winter 2009 may end without a Winter event in Atlanta. I won’t say that I’ve completely abandoned hope. But, the second half of February no longer resembles what the long range was showing a couple of weeks ago.

It Didn't Even Rain!

atlwx — 2009-02-11T19:20:09-05:00

Line of storms went both north and south of midtown Atlanta... It didn’t even rain here!!! What is up with that?

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 22:00 EST

atlwx — 2009-02-11T16:11:28-05:00

SPC has issued a watch...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 19
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HOT SPRINGS NORTH CAROLINA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTA
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...WW 17...WW 18...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DESPITE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG WIND FIELDS
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.

Tornado Watch For Atlanta Soon?

atlwx — 2009-02-11T14:53:22-05:00

Latest Meso Discussion indicates that the Tornado Watch may be extended to the east...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...THE NERN QUARTER OF AL/NRN GA AND VICINITY...

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...

VALID 111929Z - 112130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES.

SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EWD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT. WHILE INSTABILITY
REMAINS BASICALLY NIL...STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FORCED/RELATIVELY INTENSE CONVECTION.

WITH WIND FIELD THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WELL IN EXCESS OF 60 TO 80
KT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE CONVECTION
PROGRESSING ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 50 MPH...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING
AREAS E OF THE CURRENT WATCH IN THE NEXT 1 1/2 TO 2 HOURS -- WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE.

Tornado Watch Issued Just NW of Atlanta

atlwx — 2009-02-11T13:00:54-05:00

SPC has issued a TORNADO WATCH for areas NW of Atlanta (see map):

Click here for more details:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0017.html

Please keep an eye on the weather for later this afternoon. It is possible that the watch could be extended to the Atlanta area later today.

So It Begins...

atlwx — 2009-02-11T08:16:13-05:00

The severe weather season is here. A number of folks lost their lives in Oklahoma yesterday.

Please take severe weather SERIOUSLY.

Fortunately, it looks like the current outbreak was limited to yesterday and will not repeat itself today in the Atlanta area. We will see some storms later today, most likely in the form of a squall line. My current guess is that it will be here around rush hour this evening. The biggest threat from this squall line will be brief heavy rain and high winds.

Keep an eye on the radar later today. You should be able to pick out the squall line as it comes in from the west. Click the radar below to see the latest “live” version.

Severe Weather Tomorrow?

atlwx — 2009-02-10T11:56:01-05:00

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has issued a “slight” risk of severe weather for a broad area across the Southeast and Ohio Valley.

As of now, it looks like the main threat for us in the Atlanta area will be wind. The threat for tornados should be fairly low.

However, please pay attention to the weather situation tomorrow in case severe weather develops for our area.

P.S. - How about your weather radio? Have one? Have backup batteries? Have it programmed for your area?

It's Never Going to SNOW in Atlanta Ever Again

atlwx — 2009-02-09T09:35:30-05:00

At least it seems that way...

When was the last time we saw measurable SNOW in Atlanta? Well, believe it or not, it wasn’t terribly long ago. The last time there was actual SNOW on the ground in Atlanta was January 19th of last year. It didn’t stick around for very long though.

Here are a few pics from that event:

Here is a time-lapse movie of the event:

So... When will it SNOW again in Atlanta? I hope soon. Things don’t look good though. Spring-like weather will continue to be the story for at least another week. We are quickly running out of time!

Blank

atlwx — 2009-02-08T17:06:17-05:00

The sun is blank - no sunspots. Nearly 20 days have passed since the last sunspot activity.

The number of spotless days for the current solar minimum is entering record territory. This is interesting as there appears to be a correlation between sunspots and climate here on Earth. Low sunspot activity seems to link with cooling of Earth’s atmosphere.

Here is a very interesting article on the current minimum and how it is unusual: Sunspot Lapse Exceeds 95% of Normal

Drought Continues

atlwx — 2009-02-07T10:26:34-05:00

Looks like drought conditions worsened a little bit over the last week.

Three month outlooks continue to show below normal precip... and with the continued La Nina conditions, we should expect the drought to continue through the spring.

Let’s pray this general pattern changes soon! La Nina needs to take a hike!

Spring Has Sprung

atlwx — 2009-02-06T09:46:02-05:00

Winter is over... for now...

A major pattern shift is underway (and not the kind I like), with spring-like conditions arriving this weekend. The warmth may be interrupted briefly if “the wedge” sets up early next week, but otherwise we are stuck with above normal warmth for a while.

With the warm temps comes the potential for severe weather next week, however most of it should stay west and north of Atlanta. (But take the time NOW to think about severe weather and make sure you are prepared for the coming season!)

Enjoy this period of warmth while you can! Signs still point to winter coming back with a vengeance around Valentine’s Day. I’ll elaborate further as we get closer to the shift back to winter (which can’t come soon enough!).

Enjoy the weekend!!!

Severe Weather Next Week?

atlwx — 2009-02-05T09:43:19-05:00

Models seem to be showing a potent system with a negative tilt for early to mid next week.

Speaking of severe weather... February is Severe Weather Awareness Month. Please review this information:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/swaw09_main.shtml

Are you prepared for severe weather? Do you have a weather radio ready to go? Do you have a plan for your family?

Be safe!

Cold, Dry, Warm, Boring...

atlwx — 2009-02-04T08:56:25-05:00

It was very cold this morning in Midtown Atlanta. Temperature bottomed out at 17, with another cold one expected tonight. However, we warm up nicely as we go into the end of the week. Even though I hate spring and summer, I must admit I am looking forward to a cool and beautifully weekend. With temps in the low to mid 60’s and sunny, it could only be better if it were 26 with heavy SNOW.

Speaking of SNOW... Doesn’t look like we have a shot at seeing any wintery fun anytime soon. The “buzz” continues that we might enter a more favorable pattern after Valentine’s Day. I’m not too optimistic, and I’m slowly coming to accept that my favorite time of year is quickly coming to a close. Soon we will be talking about severe weather threats, and I’ll begin the long countdown to Football and Fall.

Outlook for February

atlwx — 2009-02-02T12:36:20-05:00

Will February be another wasted month for winter weather? It certainly isn’t starting off with much promise.

This week shows nothing interesting outside of maybe a few flurries tomorrow. And it looks like boring will describe the weather well into next week.

Beyond Valentine’s Day, long range models have shown some potential. There are whispers that the second half of February on in to March could be “interesting”. A slightly negative NAO coupled with a recent stratospheric warming event (SSW) could open the gates to the arctic again. All we need now is a moisture flow.

Unfortunately, moisture will be hard to come by. The Pacific has not been kind to us for some time now. And this horrible, multi-year drought in the Southeast is a direct result of conditions in the Pacific. Even worse, that evil “La Nina” is rearing her ugly head again and growing in strength. I’m becoming more concerned that this is going to be another bad year for the Desert Southeast.

So... My outlook for the last half of February. I think there will be one or two threats of winter weather. But those threats will be the same old story and heartbreak. The models will tease and then take away on into March. Rinse, Repeat.

I really believed that Atlanta would see at least one winter weather event this year. However, I’m having serious doubts now.

UPDATE: Check out this depressing item:

YUCK!!!

The Big Nothing

atlwx — 2009-02-01T10:42:43-05:00

So... What happened to our big SNOW storm? Everyone has been talking about it. What happened?

It was never there. Everything was simply a fantasy in the computer models.

However, it seems that a large number of folks took it and ran with it. Everyone loves a good “Storm of the Century”. The headlines over on accuweather continued to show “Groundhog Day Monster Storm” even after it was clear that the trends did not favor it. Finally, everyone has backed out while trying to save as much face a possible.

I got caught up in the hype as much as everyone else. I’m very disappointed and let down. Oh well.

Meanwhile, there is a little light in the darkness. A small flake of hope for the ending weeks of Winter 2009. I’ll post more on that soon.

Bye Bye January

atlwx — 2009-01-31T09:27:28-05:00

Today is the last day of January 2009. A memorable January, this has not been. As we banish this wasted January off to the annals of boredom, I pray that February offers some redemption for winter 2009.

Unfortunately, the first days of February don’t really offer us much.

The “storm” that has been the buzz for most of the past week has all but fallen off most model runs (at least for us anyhow). The pieces are still there, but they just don’t come together as the models so evilly teased us with earlier. Moisture is limited in most recent runs, and we will be lucky to even see much in the way of rain.

There are some hints that we could see a passing Flurry or four late Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday. It wouldn’t surprise me if we actually saw a brief dusting in some places. However, the chances of an actual widespread Atlanta SNOW storm are pretty much off the table now. Of course if anything changes, you know I’ll post it right away. Miracles do happen but don’t bet on one.

After the non-event for early this week, February looks to continue the same old story of little in the way of wintery fun. The only glimmer of hope is that the models continue to be all over the place (i.e. anything is possible), and there is still a slightly negative NAO (see picture below). February still has potential to offer something exciting, but my expectations are low.

Frustration & Disappointment...

atlwx — 2009-01-30T17:08:22-05:00

*** SIGH ***

You know... I don’t ask for much... Just some SNOW for Atlanta...

Seriously, what the #$@* gives?!? The last couple of days, the model runs look promising. Not much changed until today. Now they have mostly gone to giving us nothing.

At least I never preached that it was going to be the Blizzard of ’93 all over again. Unless this thing comes back, accuweather is going to look like a bunch of fools (ok, some say this happened long ago)...

Meanwhile, here is the bad news from FFC:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW OVER FLORIDA AND UP THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON
MONDAY ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE DRY
SLOT SLIPPING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL GREATLY
HINDER THE SNOW THREAT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. BASICALLY DRY AIR PUSHES
UP FROM THE SW AS THE COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING. STILL
EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER NORTH GA WHERE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION FURTHER SOUTH HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE...HAVE TWEAKED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE ALL AREAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT... AND ONLY MENTION RAIN OR SNOW
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A NEWNAN TO MADISON TO WASHINGTON
LINE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES TO THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH MODEL TRENDS BACKING AWAY FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT... HAVE DECIDED NOT TO DO A
WEB BRIEF FOR EM`S THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...EM`S AND RESIDENTS OF
CONCERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
AND ANY SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS THAT MAY BE ISSUED IN REFERENCE
TO THE SNOW THREAT MONDAY NIGHT. IF THE SITUATION CHANGES FOR THE
WORSE...A WEB BRIEFING WILL BE SCHEDULED FOR EM`S NO LATER THAN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

Not Much Has Changed

atlwx — 2009-01-30T09:31:56-05:00

Not much has changed since yesterday. The models continue to drift here and there, but they still show the storm.

The hype for this thing continues to an almost ridiculous level - especially over on accuweather.com. They are calling it the “Groundhog Day Monster Storm” and have mentioned the March 1993 Blizzard in comparison. I don’t think this will be that epic, but I do think some are going to get slammed by some heavy SNOW. No one knows where just yet, but TN is looking pretty right now.

As of now, I still stick by the forecast I made yesterday. However, I have added a timeframe: Atlanta will see rain starting late Sunday night. The rain will continue through the day on Monday with a brief change over to light SNOW after 6-8pm. The light SNOW will taper off to flurries after midnight. Areas north of I-20 and west of I-85 could see a dusting to half-inch, while the extreme north-western suburbs could see up to an inch. (Of course, you know I’m praying that Atlanta gets a foot of SNOW!)

Nail Biting Begins

atlwx — 2009-01-29T11:29:52-05:00

The models continue to show a very borderline setup for an Atlanta SNOW Storm this Monday (into Monday night). Unfortunately, we are on the wrong side of that border at this time.

As of now, it looks like the surface low that forms in the Gulf of Mexico is tracking a little too far north. The low then curves to the north-east a little too soon. This puts Atlanta into the forecast that has made my skin crawl since I was a child: “A cold rain”.

But... There is still some hope. The system could track a little more to the south and then curve to the north-east a little later. Or the system could deepen and pull in more cold air. Neither of these scenarios look likely, but they aren’t completely out of the realm of possibility.

If I had to make an “unbiased” forecast right now, this would be it: Atlanta sees mostly rain with a brief change over to light SNOW. Areas north of I-20 and west of I-85 could see a dusting to half-inch, while the extreme north-western suburbs could see up to an inch.

Early Next Week?

atlwx — 2009-01-28T11:09:07-05:00

We’ve had a couple of model runs that agree with an “interesting” event Monday and Tuesday of next week. Even better, there is some agreement on a series of events. If we miss out on one, there is a chance for another soon after.

I’ll post some more specific details on this threat tomorrow morning (if it continues to show).

From Texas to Maine

atlwx — 2009-01-27T16:22:49-05:00

Check out this map. Winter weather warnings and watches from the Mexican border all the way up to Maine!

But not a thing for us here in Atlanta... As usual...

Return of the Cold

atlwx — 2009-01-27T09:47:19-05:00

We still have not had a winter storm threat in Atlanta. It is a near certainty that January will now end with nothing more than just a few flakes of SNOW and sleet peletes.

However, the cold air is returning for February!

The NAO is flipping back to negative. This will bring back the trough to the East that pulls down the cold air. The problem will be if can get any moisture in here. The last time this happened, we were stuck in a NW flow that kept us cold and dry. Let’s hope February is a little kinder to us SNOW lovers! Winter is not over yet!

From Boredom to Flat Out Angry!!!

atlwx — 2009-01-25T18:50:20-05:00

I should have known better.

The brief SNOW tease is all but gone now. The Euro never caught on and the 12z and 18z GFS show nothing close to a SNOW storm now.

**sigh**

What gives?!? Why can’t Atlanta get a SNOW storm? Why is it so hard now? It seems we had at least one or two every year as a kid back in the 1980’s...

D*&^%$@!! I want SNOW. This is unacceptable, and I demand to speak with the manager!

***more sighing***

I hate the GFS. I hate life. I’m now going to go curl up in the fetal position, listen to Morrissey, and feel all pathetic.

Boredom Over?

atlwx — 2009-01-25T12:36:15-05:00

Wow... Funny how quickly things can change in the land of Weather!

I was beginning to believe January would fade with nothing more than a mere “Trace” of SNOW. However, the GFS suddenly put SNOW on the table for the end of the week. Not just a dusting, but 6in+!!!

Of course, my elation has been quickly extinguished by the 12z GFS run. Everything has shifted south. Grrr.

While this may not be the one... my gut feeling is that Atlanta will see at least one newsworthy winter event this year.

Keep your fingers crossed!!!

YAWN

atlwx — 2009-01-24T15:33:45-05:00

Nothing is worse than the calendar showing January, and nary a winter storm in sight. Nothing. Nada. Hopefully February will put out.

Boring

atlwx — 2009-01-21T14:50:27-05:00

Nothing exciting to talk about right now. Maybe a storm threat for next week, but it isn’t worth going into details now.

Meanwhile, I’ve added more to the site!

Atlanta May See a Flake or Five

atlwx — 2009-01-19T15:39:40-05:00

I was hoping for a miracle this afternoon, but it doesn’t look like it will come to pass. Not that there was much of a chance to begin with... However, Atlanta may see a few SNOW showers later this evening into tonite... but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw nothing at all.

Meanwhile, the outlook for the coming days is not good for us winter weather folks. We warm up this weekend, and warmer than normal will be the story for the final days of January.

Time is running out for the elusive “SNOW Jam 2009”... It’s painful to watch a January go into the books without a major winter event. Hopefully February will offer up a few more chances before I begin the long countdown to Fall 2009. Here’s to hoping!

Today May Get More Interesting

atlwx — 2009-01-19T08:25:09-05:00

Things might get more interesting later today! I sure hope it does! Regardless, our friends to the east are definitely going to be in for a pleasant surprise!!! More later...

So... What's next?

atlwx — 2009-01-18T20:48:07-05:00

So... Is there anything in the next week or so to get excited about? Good question!!!

There are TWO events that are showing up on the models:

1.) Tomorrow evening into Tuesday... The GFS is showing a small amount of moisture over the Atlanta area in the form of SNOW... As of now, it wouldn’t be any more than just a dusting...

2.) Next Weekend... There have been whispers of an actual “SNOW Storm” showing on the European model... I have yet to see these actual maps, but the sources are reputable... Meanwhile, the GFS continues to show a “January thaw” and nothing but rain for next weekend... we shall see...

While I’m completely disappointed that January is nearly over, and we have seen little in the way of winter fun... I do have a good feeling (for now) that winter still might offer us some frozen delight! Keep hope alive!!!

Yesterday's Non-Event...

atlwx — 2009-01-18T20:18:44-05:00

Here is a short video/picture of the VERY brief SNOW in Atlanta yesterday:

As I pretty much expected... Yesterday was a complete non-event... but I was disappointed none the less... All we got was a brief SNOW flurry followed by a few periods of light sleet...

Cloudy. A Near 100% Chance of Disappointment

atlwx — 2009-01-17T12:35:50-05:00

It looks like the current threat for wintery weather will be a complete disappointment. A classic south-eastern, miserable experience. It is cold and very dry. The precip will fall through this dry air and will initially freeze (evaporative cooling). It will eventually reach the ground and things become more saturated, teasing us with very light sleet. This sleet will quickly turn to light rain. The rain will end before the next shot of cold air comes in... and we will get another tease with a brief flake or two of SNOW... and it will be that annoying, look up and see a clearing sky with a stray flake or two...

Here is a graphical representation of this torture:

Don’t get too excited about the little SNOW chances shortly afterward. They are very light and will probably fall off future GFS runs anyhow.

I hate this winter so far... I HATE IT!!! And I’m quickly losing hope going forward...

Flip Flop... But Don't Get Too Excited...

atlwx — 2009-01-16T13:16:57-05:00

It seems the NWS has flip flopped back to a chance of SNOW...

Unfortunately, things look to warm up fairly quickly on Sunday.

Personally, I think Atlanta will see a little SNOW. I don’t think it will amount to much, and it will probably be brief (provided the moisture gets here before daybreak Sunday). The northern ‘burbs might see a dusting before changing to all rain.

The models continue to be all over the place... and it is VERY COLD outside right now... So who knows!?

Only One Thing is Certain

atlwx — 2009-01-15T15:58:28-05:00

Tonite, tomorrow, and tomorrow nite will be cold... Very cold... lows in the lower teens...

Less certain is wintery fun on Sunday. Models are still inconsistent, but it does appear that moisture has increased (on the GFS anyway). The bad news is that it comes with warmer temps. It is looking now like we have a mostly rain event for the Atlanta area. Maybe mixing with sleet at times, but nothing to get excited about.

SNOW Tease...

atlwx — 2009-01-14T16:24:16-05:00

It seems as though the NWS has SNOW in the forecast for Sunday... And check out the lows Thursday and Friday nite... 14 and 13!?! That’s COLD!

Too bad the precip chances are only 20% with rain wording. However, the models have shown no consistency for this “threat” with each run. So I’m still hoping for something more significant!!!

The Ice Sheets Advance...

atlwx — 2009-01-13T17:37:57-05:00

...in Greenland... But here in Atlanta, it will feel like an ice sheet advancing on us! Dangerous cold is on the way... By Friday morning, temperatures will be in the low teens for the ‘burbs and not much warmer in town! Keep your pets inside, provide food for outdoor birds, and let your faucets drip...

Still nothing (of substance) on the horizon as far as a winter weather event. However, we definitely will have the cold air in place going into next week. There is a lot of chaos between model runs, and stranger things have happened. It isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility that something suddenly show up in the coming days. Outside chances (however small) with cold air in place is better than nothing! I’m grateful than I can continue to dream...

Another Wasted January Day...

atlwx — 2009-01-12T17:27:19-05:00

Cold and dry. That is the story until next week. The GFS shows a tiny bit of moisture late this weekend, but certainly nothing to get excited about. Only a sliver of hope in that the swing to positive NAO will not last long. But La Nina’s nasty face is showing itself again, so dry will continue to be the old, tired story. Not good for SNOW lovers or the drought situation!

I Am Trying... to Believe...

atlwx — 2009-01-11T23:36:02-05:00

Things are not looking good for SNOW lovers. Models are mostly showing very cold (that’s good!) and very dry (that sux!!!). I won’t lie, I got my hopes up last week. I really thought a winter event was near certain this week. That is what I get for trusting (especially) the GFS. The GFS does this every year. It teases with fantastic winter storms that just disappear when within 5-7 days. It almost makes one wonder why the heck they even run it for beyond 7 days...

But... I am still trying to believe... We are in that sweet spot for winter. However, if it doesn’t SNOW in the next week or two, then it likely will not SNOW in Atlanta this year. Even worse, things look to moderate after next week.

Bleh... I hate spring and summer... I am not looking forward to when the trees start budding and things turn that icky shade of new green... yuck... But a good SNOW would lessen that nasty feeling as we go into the worst 8 months of the year...

Please SNOW already!!!

FFC Mentions the "S" Word

atlwx — 2009-01-08T17:21:53-05:00

From the Atlanta NWS Forecast Discussion:

OVERALL...THE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK DRY WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA MID-WEEK AND CONTINUES TO REINFORCE THE COLD
AIR...BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PCPN...EXPECT
POSSIBLY OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED -SHSN IN THE N GA MOUNTAINS. THEN...
THE MAIN ARCTIC FRONT OF THE WEEK...SUPPORTED BY THE 1059MB ARCTIC
HIGH REFERENCED ABOVE...MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE VERY END OF THE
EXTENDED. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR LIGHT WINTER TYPE PCPN. THICKNESS AND TEMPS
DICTATE THAT MUCH OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET...SO
FOR NOW AM FORCED TO ADVERTISE SLGHT CHC -SN ACROSS THE N HALF OF
THE CWA AND -RA ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT SNOW EVENTS IN THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONTS...OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...ARE VERY RARE...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS LOW.

Next Week: HOLY FREAKIN' BRRRRR!!!

atlwx — 2009-01-07T17:23:54-05:00

Well... The mild weather is over. The cold returns early next week, and it could be brutal. Records lows are expected across the deep south.

And how about a little later in the week... an ice storm? hmmm...

Update: Tornado Watch Canceled

atlwx — 2009-01-06T21:24:31-05:00

The line of storms has all but fallen apart... and SPC has canceled the aforementioned Tornado Watch (#4)...

Tornado Watch for Atlanta/North GA

atlwx — 2009-01-06T17:36:17-05:00

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 4
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

TORNADO WATCH 4 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

GAC011-013-015-045-057-059-063-067-077-085-089-097-105-111-113-
115-117-119-121-123-129-135-137-139-143-147-149-151-157-187-195-
213-217-219-221-223-227-233-241-247-257-281-291-297-311-
070400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0004.090106T2240Z-090107T0400Z/

GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BANKS BARROW BARTOW
CARROLL CHEROKEE CLARKE
CLAYTON COBB COWETA
DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS
ELBERT FANNIN FAYETTE
FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN
FULTON GILMER GORDON
GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL
HARALSON HART HEARD
HENRY JACKSON LUMPKIN
MADISON MURRAY NEWTON
OCONEE OGLETHORPE PAULDING
PICKENS POLK RABUN
ROCKDALE STEPHENS TOWNS
UNION WALTON WHITE
$$

Severe Storms Next Door

atlwx — 2009-01-06T16:55:16-05:00

Pretty impressive line of storms over in Alabama... Many discrete cells in a near perfect straight line...

No Snow This Week... BUT...

atlwx — 2009-01-06T00:31:22-05:00

Doesn’t look like we are going to get any SNOW in the Atlanta area this week... However, the most recent GFS run shows some potential for next week!

And AccuWeather.com has this fun little graphic.

I hope the next few days continue to show a good storm for our area! Please don’t let this be yet another false hope!!

January 5th - 11th?

atlwx — 2008-12-29T15:18:42-05:00

Things are looking good for some possible winter fun!!!

Unfortunately, it looks like there will be a fairly big warm up after the 11th. So let’s hope this window delivers a good winter storm (or two) for Atlanta!

I will be posting more details on specific events in the coming days.

January Fun?

atlwx — 2008-12-23T17:46:10-05:00

Trend is looking good!

No White Christmas This Year...

atlwx — 2008-12-22T18:04:47-05:00

Latest model runs show no hope at all for a white Christmas for North Georgia. Just cool and soggy. Oh well. I am grateful for the rain however!!

But there is hope for winter weather in the coming weeks. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is going negative. This basically opens the door for artic air to push into the southeast. More on specific possibilities later.