Feb 2009
Winter Weather Advisory
02/28/2009 15:45
FFC put out a Winter Weather Advisory!
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
...POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...
.A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
AND EXPOSED SURFACES.
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>075-078>084-
089>096-010445-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0003.090301T1500Z-090302T0500Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-
MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...COLUMBUS...WARNER ROBINS
341 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ADVISORY AREA COVERS MUCH OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUSSETA TO PERRY TO
MILLEDGEVILLE TO WEST OF AUGUSTA.
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE STATE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE CAUSING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW.
THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE A
SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THIS PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE A LAYER
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME OF THE SNOW TO MELT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. GROUND
SURFACES WILL ALSO BE WARM DUE TO THE RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES AND
SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.
HOWEVER...IF A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS IT COULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ON ROADS.
PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON TELEVISION... RADIO...THE INTERNET OR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO. IF THE STORM SYSTEM OR COLD AIR INTENSIFIES
FURTHER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
...POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...
.A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
AND EXPOSED SURFACES.
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>075-078>084-
089>096-010445-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0003.090301T1500Z-090302T0500Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-
MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...COLUMBUS...WARNER ROBINS
341 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ADVISORY AREA COVERS MUCH OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUSSETA TO PERRY TO
MILLEDGEVILLE TO WEST OF AUGUSTA.
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE STATE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE CAUSING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW.
THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE A
SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THIS PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE A LAYER
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME OF THE SNOW TO MELT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. GROUND
SURFACES WILL ALSO BE WARM DUE TO THE RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES AND
SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.
HOWEVER...IF A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS IT COULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ON ROADS.
PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON TELEVISION... RADIO...THE INTERNET OR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO. IF THE STORM SYSTEM OR COLD AIR INTENSIFIES
FURTHER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
SNOW
02/28/2009 11:57
Things are looking good right now for the Atlanta area. Of course this is all subject to change, but let's not think about that right now.
As of the time of this blog entry, I think the Atlanta area will see SNOW around daybreak Sunday morning. The SNOW could be heavy at times in some areas, but the ground is very warm and will limit accumulations. My ball park forecast for accumulations is 0.5-4 inches across the area. Heaviest SNOW band will be very narrow, so it is possible that some may see nothing while 10 miles away gets 4 inches.
Now, some eye candy!!
* * *
The NWS has put "SNOW Likely" in the forecast:
Sunday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
* * *
HPC Snow Accumulation Probability Of At Least 4 Inches:
* * *
Special Weather Statement:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-010200-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA SUNDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN EXIT OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...BEGINNING AS LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA...AND THEN BECOMING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT OVER
WESTERN GEORGIA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA BEFORE PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...CLOSER
TO THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STORM SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...AREAS NEAR COLUMBUS AND AMERICUS COULD SEE A SWITCH TO
SNOW BEFORE AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS CONCERNING ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE GROUND
STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND THE SNOW MELTING AS IT FALLS INTO THE
WARMER AIR NEAR THE GROUND...ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INITIALLY SHOULD
MELT. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND IN THE LOW 40S OVER AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON. HOWEVER...AS THE COLDER AIR PRESSES EAST
AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD RESULT IN
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A CORDELE TO LOUISVILLE LINE COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES
SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HOWEVER...IF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
OCCUR...ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD FALL ON
ROADWAYS. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CORDELE TO LOUISVILLE LINE WILL SEE
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE TELEVISION
OR RADIO STATION...FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR
ADVISORIES ON THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.
* * *
The Weather Channel:
Let's hope it all pans out! Heck, let's hope it's epic and we get hammered!!!
As of the time of this blog entry, I think the Atlanta area will see SNOW around daybreak Sunday morning. The SNOW could be heavy at times in some areas, but the ground is very warm and will limit accumulations. My ball park forecast for accumulations is 0.5-4 inches across the area. Heaviest SNOW band will be very narrow, so it is possible that some may see nothing while 10 miles away gets 4 inches.
Now, some eye candy!!
* * *
The NWS has put "SNOW Likely" in the forecast:
Sunday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
* * *
HPC Snow Accumulation Probability Of At Least 4 Inches:
* * *
Special Weather Statement:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-010200-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009
...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA SUNDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN EXIT OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...BEGINNING AS LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA...AND THEN BECOMING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT OVER
WESTERN GEORGIA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA BEFORE PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...CLOSER
TO THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STORM SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...AREAS NEAR COLUMBUS AND AMERICUS COULD SEE A SWITCH TO
SNOW BEFORE AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS CONCERNING ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE GROUND
STILL RELATIVELY WARM AND THE SNOW MELTING AS IT FALLS INTO THE
WARMER AIR NEAR THE GROUND...ANY SNOW THAT FALLS INITIALLY SHOULD
MELT. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA AND IN THE LOW 40S OVER AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON. HOWEVER...AS THE COLDER AIR PRESSES EAST
AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD RESULT IN
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A CORDELE TO LOUISVILLE LINE COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES
SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HOWEVER...IF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
OCCUR...ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD FALL ON
ROADWAYS. AREAS SOUTH OF THE CORDELE TO LOUISVILLE LINE WILL SEE
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE TELEVISION
OR RADIO STATION...FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR
ADVISORIES ON THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.
* * *
The Weather Channel:
Let's hope it all pans out! Heck, let's hope it's epic and we get hammered!!!
Nail Biting Begins
02/27/2009 23:27
Models are all over the place with the potential SNOW storm. Thankfully, we will soon be out of the "model madness" and into "nowcasting". Things should be a bit more clear in the morning. Well, as clear as they can be with an ULL.
Stay sane!
Stay sane!
SNOW Now In NWS Forecast For Atlanta
02/27/2009 14:13
FFC has now put SNOW in the forecast grids for the Atlanta area:
Saturday Night: A chance of rain before 1am, then rain and snow likely. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday: A chance of rain and snow before 11am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
* * *
Of course there is no mention of accumulations yet (I'm betting they won't until tomorrow - *if* there is actually still the chance of accumulations). Sunday's forecast says back to all rain, but that too remains to be seen.
Latest model runs are still good for the Atlanta area (in that we aren't out of the running). This could be epic, major disappointment, or mildly amusing. Nothing is off the table yet.
Keep hope alive!
Saturday Night: A chance of rain before 1am, then rain and snow likely. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday: A chance of rain and snow before 11am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
* * *
Of course there is no mention of accumulations yet (I'm betting they won't until tomorrow - *if* there is actually still the chance of accumulations). Sunday's forecast says back to all rain, but that too remains to be seen.
Latest model runs are still good for the Atlanta area (in that we aren't out of the running). This could be epic, major disappointment, or mildly amusing. Nothing is off the table yet.
Keep hope alive!
Backing Off Severe Threat
02/27/2009 10:00
The threat for severe weather doesn't look as great today as it was looking yesterday. SPC no longer has the Atlanta area at a "threat level" today. Still has a "slight risk" for tomorrow (though I think that will be dropped at some point).
The main threat today into tonight will be heavy rain and maybe a few strong thunderstorms. However, keep an eye on the weather today in case things change.
The main threat today into tonight will be heavy rain and maybe a few strong thunderstorms. However, keep an eye on the weather today in case things change.
So... Is It Going To SNOW?!?
02/27/2009 08:57
There is the potential for very heavy rains and severe storms over the next 24 hours. But the really big question is "Is it going to SNOW"?!?
Unfortunately, the answer isn't clear. But as of RIGHT NOW, I think it will. How Much? I think 2-6 inches is not out of the question. However, the ground is very warm and temps will be near or above freezing. So I don't believe we'll see that much SNOW actually "stick".
Of course all of this could change by this evening. Knowing our recent luck, the odds are good it will change to someone else getting SNOW and Atlanta gets nothing. Although things could change in our favour and we get half a foot or more. We really won't know for sure until it happens, but dreaming of the threat is half the fun! So for now, life is good!
Just as a tease, here is a graphic generated by the 6z run of the NAM... shows roughly 8 inches for Atlanta (but don't count on it):
Keep hope alive! Pray, meditate, flush ice cubes down the toilet. Do whatever. LET IT SNOW!!!
Unfortunately, the answer isn't clear. But as of RIGHT NOW, I think it will. How Much? I think 2-6 inches is not out of the question. However, the ground is very warm and temps will be near or above freezing. So I don't believe we'll see that much SNOW actually "stick".
Of course all of this could change by this evening. Knowing our recent luck, the odds are good it will change to someone else getting SNOW and Atlanta gets nothing. Although things could change in our favour and we get half a foot or more. We really won't know for sure until it happens, but dreaming of the threat is half the fun! So for now, life is good!
Just as a tease, here is a graphic generated by the 6z run of the NAM... shows roughly 8 inches for Atlanta (but don't count on it):
Keep hope alive! Pray, meditate, flush ice cubes down the toilet. Do whatever. LET IT SNOW!!!
Flood Watch
02/27/2009 08:23
HPC has backed off just a LITTLE bit on the precip totals. Meanwhile, a Flood Watch has been issued that includes the Atlanta area.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
353 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>055-057-271700-
/O.NEW.KFFC.FA.A.0002.090227T2100Z-090228T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY
353 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
* A LARGE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED
TO PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION TODAY. A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FORCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ALABAMA AND MOVE INTO
GEORGIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY OVER NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL
CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4
INCHES POSSIBLE CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO MADISON TO
WASHINGTON.
* THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME RIVERS...STREAMS AND
CREEKS TO RISE TO LEVELS THAT RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN URBAN AREAS AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF.
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ALONG LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS. IF YOU ARE IN THE
WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF
YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...AND BE
READY FOR ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
353 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>055-057-271700-
/O.NEW.KFFC.FA.A.0002.090227T2100Z-090228T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY
353 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
* A LARGE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED
TO PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION TODAY. A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FORCE ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ALABAMA AND MOVE INTO
GEORGIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY OVER NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL
CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4
INCHES POSSIBLE CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO MADISON TO
WASHINGTON.
* THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME RIVERS...STREAMS AND
CREEKS TO RISE TO LEVELS THAT RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN URBAN AREAS AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF.
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ALONG LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS. IF YOU ARE IN THE
WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF
YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...AND BE
READY FOR ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.
Heavy Rain & Severe Storms
02/26/2009 23:17
Heavy rain and the potential for severe storms will be the story over the next 36 hours. Severe storms are already showing up in AK, TN, and MS.
HPC shows nearly 5 inches of liquid precip for the Atlanta area over the next 5 days. Most of that falling tomorrow into Saturday.
Of course the other big story is the potential Southeastern SNOW storm. Models still show a storm, but as expected, each run shows a different area getting slammed. I'd say anyone from the Mississippi River to the East Coast has a shot. We'll (hopefully) narrow things down a little better tomorrow. Keep hope alive!!!
HPC shows nearly 5 inches of liquid precip for the Atlanta area over the next 5 days. Most of that falling tomorrow into Saturday.
Of course the other big story is the potential Southeastern SNOW storm. Models still show a storm, but as expected, each run shows a different area getting slammed. I'd say anyone from the Mississippi River to the East Coast has a shot. We'll (hopefully) narrow things down a little better tomorrow. Keep hope alive!!!
Update: 12z NAM & GFS Still Good
02/26/2009 11:56
12z runs of both NAM and GFS still show a SNOW storm. Too early to get into specifics, but as of now, someone looks to be getting a good dumping in the SE. Let's just hope that includes Atlanta!!!
Cautiously Optimistic
02/26/2009 09:30
Ok... The upcoming possibility is very complicated. It involves a cold-core upper level low. So the forecast will be very tricky even up to the event itself (if it even happens).
Here is a snippet of what the GFS is showing as of the 6z run:
Here is a snippet of what the NAM is showing as of the 6z run:
So you can see, the GFS and NAM are pretty close in agreement on the placement of the ULL. If things unfold anywhere close to this, someone in the deep south is going to get a good SNOW. Even more interesting, this critter takes its time moving out! But remember, this is still days off. There is plenty of time for it to disappear a la Groundhogzilla...
Let's hope the 12z runs continue the show!
Here is a snippet of what the GFS is showing as of the 6z run:
Here is a snippet of what the NAM is showing as of the 6z run:
So you can see, the GFS and NAM are pretty close in agreement on the placement of the ULL. If things unfold anywhere close to this, someone in the deep south is going to get a good SNOW. Even more interesting, this critter takes its time moving out! But remember, this is still days off. There is plenty of time for it to disappear a la Groundhogzilla...
Let's hope the 12z runs continue the show!
Severe Weather Potential
02/26/2009 08:43
Lots of interesting weather potential over the next few days into the weekend.
First up, the severe weather threat. SPC has put out a "slight risk" that includes the Atlanta for both Friday AND Saturday:
It's that time of the year, so naturally the ingredients are there for severe weather. We will have fairly good winds aloft with high shear/helicity values. The only limiting factor may be instability. This definitely needs to be watched.
As for the other interesting weather possibility... Stay tuned for the next post...
First up, the severe weather threat. SPC has put out a "slight risk" that includes the Atlanta for both Friday AND Saturday:
Friday Severe Threat
Saturday Severe Threat
It's that time of the year, so naturally the ingredients are there for severe weather. We will have fairly good winds aloft with high shear/helicity values. The only limiting factor may be instability. This definitely needs to be watched.
As for the other interesting weather possibility... Stay tuned for the next post...
Miracle Or Despair
02/26/2009 00:38
More interesting model runs for this weekend...
Will there be a miracle? Or will there be utter despair? I'm going to bed now and hope for the best. More in the morning...
Will there be a miracle? Or will there be utter despair? I'm going to bed now and hope for the best. More in the morning...
Slight Risk Friday?
02/25/2009 11:40
SPC has placed the NW part of Georgia in a "slight risk" for Friday. This includes the NW part of the metro Atlanta area.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CST WED FEB 25 2009
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID-SOUTH TO SRN
APPALACHIANS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO EVOLVE FROM NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO
BROADLY CYCLONIC OVER ERN 2/3 CONUS...AS SERIES OF NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTRIBUTES TO HEIGHT FALLS FROM CENTRAL/NRN
ROCKIES TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONGEST OF THESE PERTURBATIONS --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM COASTAL BC OVER CENTRAL
BC -- SHOULD PIVOT SLOWLY SWD THEN EWD AS CLOSED LOW...ACROSS
PACIFIC NW DAYS 1-2. THIS FEATURE THEN SHOULD ACCELERATE ESEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAY-3...WHEREUPON CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD BEGINS TO APPEAR IN GUIDANCE REGARDING AMPLITUDE OF SYSTEM.
DOWNSTREAM/WEAKER TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT OFFSHORE NRN CA -- IS FCST TO
PHASE WITH NRN STREAM PERTURBATION THROUGH DAY-2. THIS FEATURE THEN
SHOULD MOVE FROM VICINITY LM EWD TO INLAND PORTIONS MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS PERIOD...ATTAINING MORE POSITIVE TILT WITH TIME.
ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD EJECT FROM SRN ONT POSITION AROUND
27/12Z EWD TO ENEWD TOWARD NRN NEW ENGLAND AND LOWER ST LAWRENCE
RIVER AREA BY 28/12Z. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY IN PERIOD. TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT
SHOULD STALL ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION...PERHAPS WITH WEAK/ATTACHED
CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHG FROM CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY LINGERS REGARDING POSITIONING OF
FRONT AND STRENGTH/LOCATION OF WAVE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS
REGION.
...MID-SOUTH TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
PRIOR/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. LOW
LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL THETAE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE
EARLY-PERIOD MCS MOVING EWD OR ESEWD ACROSS REGION. FCST DEEP-LAYER
WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED
PARCELS AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR THREAT...WITH HAIL AND
PERHAPS WIND DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF NEAR-SFC STABLE AIR.
DURING DAY...INTENSIFICATION OF MORNING ACTIVITY AND/OR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS POSSIBLE...WITH SFC-BASED
SVR POSSIBLE. RESIDUAL/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
CONSIDERABLE SBCINH DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING SHARP SRN CUT-OFF TO CONVECTION. SFC HEATING IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN CAPPING ALONG SRN RIM OF CLOUD/PRECIP AREA. STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF MAX LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEPEND ON AFOREMENTIONED
CYCLOGENESIS AS WELL AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALONG FRONT AND/OR
BOUNDARIES FROM OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HOWEVER...MOST
PROGS REASONABLY INDICATE SUFFICIENT CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION
OVER THIS REGION...AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...TO SUPPORT
SVR OUTLOOK.
SOME BACKBUILDING MAY OCCUR ALONG FRONT...ACROSS PORTIONS
AR/LA...LATER IN PERIOD...HOWEVER SVR POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL
FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CST WED FEB 25 2009
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID-SOUTH TO SRN
APPALACHIANS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO EVOLVE FROM NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO
BROADLY CYCLONIC OVER ERN 2/3 CONUS...AS SERIES OF NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTRIBUTES TO HEIGHT FALLS FROM CENTRAL/NRN
ROCKIES TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONGEST OF THESE PERTURBATIONS --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM COASTAL BC OVER CENTRAL
BC -- SHOULD PIVOT SLOWLY SWD THEN EWD AS CLOSED LOW...ACROSS
PACIFIC NW DAYS 1-2. THIS FEATURE THEN SHOULD ACCELERATE ESEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAY-3...WHEREUPON CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD BEGINS TO APPEAR IN GUIDANCE REGARDING AMPLITUDE OF SYSTEM.
DOWNSTREAM/WEAKER TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT OFFSHORE NRN CA -- IS FCST TO
PHASE WITH NRN STREAM PERTURBATION THROUGH DAY-2. THIS FEATURE THEN
SHOULD MOVE FROM VICINITY LM EWD TO INLAND PORTIONS MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS PERIOD...ATTAINING MORE POSITIVE TILT WITH TIME.
ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD EJECT FROM SRN ONT POSITION AROUND
27/12Z EWD TO ENEWD TOWARD NRN NEW ENGLAND AND LOWER ST LAWRENCE
RIVER AREA BY 28/12Z. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY IN PERIOD. TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT
SHOULD STALL ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION...PERHAPS WITH WEAK/ATTACHED
CYCLOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHG FROM CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY LINGERS REGARDING POSITIONING OF
FRONT AND STRENGTH/LOCATION OF WAVE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS
REGION.
...MID-SOUTH TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
PRIOR/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. LOW
LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL THETAE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE
EARLY-PERIOD MCS MOVING EWD OR ESEWD ACROSS REGION. FCST DEEP-LAYER
WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED
PARCELS AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR THREAT...WITH HAIL AND
PERHAPS WIND DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF NEAR-SFC STABLE AIR.
DURING DAY...INTENSIFICATION OF MORNING ACTIVITY AND/OR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS POSSIBLE...WITH SFC-BASED
SVR POSSIBLE. RESIDUAL/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
CONSIDERABLE SBCINH DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING SHARP SRN CUT-OFF TO CONVECTION. SFC HEATING IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN CAPPING ALONG SRN RIM OF CLOUD/PRECIP AREA. STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF MAX LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEPEND ON AFOREMENTIONED
CYCLOGENESIS AS WELL AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALONG FRONT AND/OR
BOUNDARIES FROM OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HOWEVER...MOST
PROGS REASONABLY INDICATE SUFFICIENT CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION
OVER THIS REGION...AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...TO SUPPORT
SVR OUTLOOK.
SOME BACKBUILDING MAY OCCUR ALONG FRONT...ACROSS PORTIONS
AR/LA...LATER IN PERIOD...HOWEVER SVR POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL
FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.
This Weekend
02/25/2009 08:18
Looks like we might get some beneficial rain in here on Friday and Saturday. Rain totals aren’t looking quite as high as they did yesterday. However, still shows generally an inch or so for the Atlanta area.
There have been whispers of wintery precip over the past day or two. The Euro did briefly show a fantasy SNOW storm, but of course it went away. Everyone knows it doesn’t SNOW here in the Southeast anymore.
There have been whispers of wintery precip over the past day or two. The Euro did briefly show a fantasy SNOW storm, but of course it went away. Everyone knows it doesn’t SNOW here in the Southeast anymore.
Mostly Boring
02/23/2009 09:33
A Severe Boring Warning is in effect for the Atlanta area. Boring conditions are expected in our area for most of the week. The soonest we can expect the boring to lift is Thursday night. Meanwhile, nap time!
ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...
ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...
Spring Outlook
02/22/2009 11:03
No doubt about it, this winter has just sucked. So what is in store for this spring?
Well... We are STILL in the clutches of the evil La Nina. So it will be mostly dry with near normal temps.
Here is a look from CPC for March, April, and May:
This is NOT good news. The drought is quickly returning to hard hit areas that have suffered the last few years. A dry spring will almost certainly bring a miserable summer. Without sufficient moisture in the soil, we will enter a nasty feedback system where hot and dry will feed on itself. Lack of soil moisture will cause more of the sun’s energy to go into heating the surface with less going to evaporation of water. This will also hinder the development of the typical afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
I hate it when it gets above 70. So I am NOT a happy camper thinking about this summer.
It is clear that La Nina has got to go. She has WAY overstayed her welcome. Actually she was never welcome begin with. Someone please show that b!tch out the door already!!
Well... We are STILL in the clutches of the evil La Nina. So it will be mostly dry with near normal temps.
Here is a look from CPC for March, April, and May:
This is NOT good news. The drought is quickly returning to hard hit areas that have suffered the last few years. A dry spring will almost certainly bring a miserable summer. Without sufficient moisture in the soil, we will enter a nasty feedback system where hot and dry will feed on itself. Lack of soil moisture will cause more of the sun’s energy to go into heating the surface with less going to evaporation of water. This will also hinder the development of the typical afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
I hate it when it gets above 70. So I am NOT a happy camper thinking about this summer.
It is clear that La Nina has got to go. She has WAY overstayed her welcome. Actually she was never welcome begin with. Someone please show that b!tch out the door already!!
The "S" Word?
02/21/2009 16:23
Yes. There is SNOW in the forecast this evening. Too bad it will be a non-event. There is indeed a chance that we might see a brief period of SNOW, but it won’t be heavy or last very long.
A brief dusting for the northern parts of Atlanta at the very best. Reality is more like a brief tease that gets you excited with a quick slap in the face as you see the sky quickly clearing.
Winter 2009 has just been an evil, cruel b!tch. It has only made me bitter and grumpy. It will not be missed! Only 283 days (roughly) until I MIGHT have hope again.
A brief dusting for the northern parts of Atlanta at the very best. Reality is more like a brief tease that gets you excited with a quick slap in the face as you see the sky quickly clearing.
Winter 2009 has just been an evil, cruel b!tch. It has only made me bitter and grumpy. It will not be missed! Only 283 days (roughly) until I MIGHT have hope again.
Cold Returns
02/19/2009 08:06
The cold returns for the next couple of days. Though it will be a mostly useless cold. I haven’t really talked about it, but the models were showing a possibility of SNOW for this weekend. Of course those possibilities have now gone the way that every other &*%^$@ possibility has this lame winter 2009. Rinse, Repeat. Die La Nina, you stupid b&$^&%, die.
The Final Throws
02/18/2009 20:30
*** TORNADO WATCH EXPIRED EARLY FOR NORTH ATLANTA AREA ***
It looks like we are at the tail end of this severe weather event. The tornado watch has been lifted for the city of Atlanta and north (but continues south of the airport for now). Still a good storm with lots of lightning and a little hail here in midtown now. It’s kinda nice actually.
Well.. That’s pretty much it for me tonight. LOST is coming on. Glad the severe weather is moving out. I’d be all sorts of bent out of shape if I lost my satellite signal.
It looks like we are at the tail end of this severe weather event. The tornado watch has been lifted for the city of Atlanta and north (but continues south of the airport for now). Still a good storm with lots of lightning and a little hail here in midtown now. It’s kinda nice actually.
Well.. That’s pretty much it for me tonight. LOST is coming on. Glad the severe weather is moving out. I’d be all sorts of bent out of shape if I lost my satellite signal.
SEVERE UPDATE
02/18/2009 16:39
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS INTO NERN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24...
VALID 182122Z - 182245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 24 CONTINUES.
THROUGH 23Z...EXPECT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES TO EXIST OVER NERN PORTION
OF WW AREA...NAMELY FROM JUST NE OF BHM TO NEAR OR E OF RMG.
AS OF 21Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SEVERE STORMS
/INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ OVER CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES IN FAR NWRN
GA AND ST. CLAIR COUNTY AL MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 45-50 KT. AIR
MASS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER NERN GA IS RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZING AND MODIFICATION OF 18Z ATL/BHM SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT
SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION
TO SMALLER T/TD SPREADS AND RESULTANT LOWER LCL HEIGHTS OVER NERN AL
INTO NWRN GA...LOCAL VWPS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE NOTABLY
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KT AND EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES OF 300-400 M2/S2. AS SUCH...ONGOING SUPERCELLS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
FARTHER W...AN ISOLATED STORM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER LAUDERDALE
COUNTY MS AS OF 21Z. GIVEN THE RATHER STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
AND SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH CNTRL
AL...THIS STORM MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
TORNADO WATCH FOR ATLANTA UNTIL 11PM
02/18/2009 15:34
SPC has issued a Tornado watch that includes the Atlanta area:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 25
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
A LARGE PART OF GEORGIA
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ATHENS GEORGIA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOTHAN ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...WW 24...
DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS AL INTO WRN GA IN
CONCERT WITH THE DESTABILIZATION THAT IS OCCURRING. WITH VERY
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE EVENING...DEVELOPING FROM W
TO E. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26045.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 25
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
A LARGE PART OF GEORGIA
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ATHENS GEORGIA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOTHAN ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...WW 24...
DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS AL INTO WRN GA IN
CONCERT WITH THE DESTABILIZATION THAT IS OCCURRING. WITH VERY
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE EVENING...DEVELOPING FROM W
TO E. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26045.
PART OF ATLANTA NOW IN MODERATE RISK
02/18/2009 14:59
SPC has shifted the “moderate risk” for severe weather to include part of the Atlanta area:
It is likely that a tornado watch will be issued that will include all or part of the Atlanta area.
It is likely that a tornado watch will be issued that will include all or part of the Atlanta area.
Tornado Watch Issued To Our West
02/18/2009 14:12
SPC has issued a TORNADO WATCH for a large area just west of Atlanta:
Click here for more details:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0024.html
Please keep an eye on the weather this afternoon. There is a good chance that the watch will be extended to the Atlanta area later today.
Click here for more details:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0024.html
Please keep an eye on the weather this afternoon. There is a good chance that the watch will be extended to the Atlanta area later today.
Severe Storms Today. Weekend Buzz?
02/18/2009 08:02
It was fairly chilly when I walked outside to check my rain gauge. Quick glance at the thermometer showed 47. Doesn’t feel like severe weather outside at the moment.
But don’t let the cool morning fool you! Warmer temps and higher dew-points are on the way. A lot of shear and helicity are already in place upstairs. The stage is set for the possibility of severe weather later today.
SPC has put us in a slight risk (with moderate next door and to our south):
I don’t think today will be a big event for the Atlanta area. By that I mean it won’t be an “outbreak”. Can’t rule out an isolated tornado, but the main threat will be severe thunderstorms with the usual damaging winds, hail, and lightning.
Keep your eye on the weather today!
Meanwhile... Folks are buzzing about this weekend. After having my hopes dashed earlier this month (and all winter), I’m not getting excited about anything yet. If the buzz is still around tomorrow, then I might discuss it further.
But don’t let the cool morning fool you! Warmer temps and higher dew-points are on the way. A lot of shear and helicity are already in place upstairs. The stage is set for the possibility of severe weather later today.
SPC has put us in a slight risk (with moderate next door and to our south):
I don’t think today will be a big event for the Atlanta area. By that I mean it won’t be an “outbreak”. Can’t rule out an isolated tornado, but the main threat will be severe thunderstorms with the usual damaging winds, hail, and lightning.
Keep your eye on the weather today!
Meanwhile... Folks are buzzing about this weekend. After having my hopes dashed earlier this month (and all winter), I’m not getting excited about anything yet. If the buzz is still around tomorrow, then I might discuss it further.
He Who Must Must Not Be Named...
02/17/2009 21:26
Something which cannot be named has shown up today in the models. However, we can’t talk about it. We all know what happened last time.
Severe Storms Tomorrow?
02/17/2009 09:11
Watching out for the possibility of severe storms tomorrow. SPC has put out a “slight risk” for tomorrow.
Whatever Happened To Wintertime Gulf Lows?
02/15/2009 23:27
Most substantial snowfalls for Atlanta are associated with storm systems that form in and track along the northern Gulf of Mexico. These SNOW producing Gulf lows were more common back in the 80’s into the early 90’s. (It really did SNOW more when I was a kid!)
Significant SNOW producing storms for Atlanta generally fall into two different categories.
1.) The first type (and best since the SNOW actually sticks) forms after a significant arctic front moves through. The storm develops on the stalled boundary of the arctic air in the gulf and tracks toward the NE. With this type of storm, the coverage of SNOW can be across a fairly large area.
SNOW JAM ’82
I was just a little boy when this happened, and I don’t remember much about it. However, I have heard the stories for as long as I can remember. Heavy SNOW started falling just before rush hour on Tuesday, January 12, 1982. Many commuters who started home never made it with their vehicles. Some were forced to stay the night at their place of work. Cold air was definitely in place for this event. The previous two days saw lows BELOW ZERO! I don’t think it gets anymore Winter than this...
I-85 and Peachtree Road (Amtrak Station) - Atlanta Snow Jam ’82
* * *
2.) The second type is a cold core upper level low. This type of storm can pull in cold air from the upper atmosphere and advect to the surface. The SNOW can be very heavy with this type but is generally confined to a very narrow band. It is also interesting to note that with ULL’s it can be fairly warm at the surface (well into the 40’s) and still SNOW.
LATE SEASON SNOW - MARCH 1983
A cold core low dumped 8 inches of SNOW on Atlanta on March 24, 1983. The band was very narrow, but Atlanta wound up in the bulls-eye!
Of course the “Gulf Low to End All Lows” was the “Super Storm” of 1993. I remember the “Storm of the Century” very well, but I’ll save that for a post next month (near the anniversary).
The pattern of the last decade(+) has not favored SNOW storms. I hope to do a future post on the cause of this, and if there is any hope that this horrible pattern will end.
Here’s to the return of the Wintertime Gulf Low!!!
Significant SNOW producing storms for Atlanta generally fall into two different categories.
1.) The first type (and best since the SNOW actually sticks) forms after a significant arctic front moves through. The storm develops on the stalled boundary of the arctic air in the gulf and tracks toward the NE. With this type of storm, the coverage of SNOW can be across a fairly large area.
SNOW JAM ’82
I-85 and Peachtree Road (Amtrak Station) - Atlanta Snow Jam ’82
* * *
2.) The second type is a cold core upper level low. This type of storm can pull in cold air from the upper atmosphere and advect to the surface. The SNOW can be very heavy with this type but is generally confined to a very narrow band. It is also interesting to note that with ULL’s it can be fairly warm at the surface (well into the 40’s) and still SNOW.
LATE SEASON SNOW - MARCH 1983
A cold core low dumped 8 inches of SNOW on Atlanta on March 24, 1983. The band was very narrow, but Atlanta wound up in the bulls-eye!
Of course the “Gulf Low to End All Lows” was the “Super Storm” of 1993. I remember the “Storm of the Century” very well, but I’ll save that for a post next month (near the anniversary).
The pattern of the last decade(+) has not favored SNOW storms. I hope to do a future post on the cause of this, and if there is any hope that this horrible pattern will end.
Here’s to the return of the Wintertime Gulf Low!!!
Drought Continues - Same Old Tune...
02/13/2009 09:42
Drought conditions worsened even further over the last week...
Meanwhile, things continue to look grim for those wanting Winter Weather. Models continue marching storms northward each run. No real arctic air for the SE. Same old %^$&#! story...
The only “good news” is that we might be entering a brief “wet” period. Though “wet” is relative.
I’m ready to kick both the Drought and Winter 2009 to where the sun don’t shine! I’m over both of them!
Meanwhile, things continue to look grim for those wanting Winter Weather. Models continue marching storms northward each run. No real arctic air for the SE. Same old %^$&#! story...
The only “good news” is that we might be entering a brief “wet” period. Though “wet” is relative.
I’m ready to kick both the Drought and Winter 2009 to where the sun don’t shine! I’m over both of them!
The End?
02/12/2009 18:19
I’m beginning to accept and make peace with the fact that Winter 2009 may end without a Winter event in Atlanta. I won’t say that I’ve completely abandoned hope. But, the second half of February no longer resembles what the long range was showing a couple of weeks ago.
It Didn't Even Rain!
02/11/2009 19:20
Line of storms went both north and south of midtown Atlanta... It didn’t even rain here!!! What is up with that?
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 22:00 EST
02/11/2009 16:11
SPC has issued a watch...
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 19
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HOT SPRINGS NORTH CAROLINA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTA
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...WW 17...WW 18...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DESPITE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG WIND FIELDS
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 19
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HOT SPRINGS NORTH CAROLINA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTA
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...WW 17...WW 18...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DESPITE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG WIND FIELDS
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
Tornado Watch For Atlanta Soon?
02/11/2009 14:53
Latest Meso Discussion indicates that the Tornado Watch may be extended to the east...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...THE NERN QUARTER OF AL/NRN GA AND VICINITY...
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...
VALID 111929Z - 112130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES.
SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EWD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT. WHILE INSTABILITY
REMAINS BASICALLY NIL...STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FORCED/RELATIVELY INTENSE CONVECTION.
WITH WIND FIELD THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WELL IN EXCESS OF 60 TO 80
KT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE CONVECTION
PROGRESSING ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 50 MPH...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING
AREAS E OF THE CURRENT WATCH IN THE NEXT 1 1/2 TO 2 HOURS -- WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...THE NERN QUARTER OF AL/NRN GA AND VICINITY...
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...
VALID 111929Z - 112130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES.
SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EWD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT. WHILE INSTABILITY
REMAINS BASICALLY NIL...STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FORCED/RELATIVELY INTENSE CONVECTION.
WITH WIND FIELD THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WELL IN EXCESS OF 60 TO 80
KT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE CONVECTION
PROGRESSING ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 50 MPH...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING
AREAS E OF THE CURRENT WATCH IN THE NEXT 1 1/2 TO 2 HOURS -- WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE.
Tornado Watch Issued Just NW of Atlanta
02/11/2009 13:00
SPC has issued a TORNADO WATCH for areas NW of Atlanta (see map):
Click here for more details:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0017.html
Please keep an eye on the weather for later this afternoon. It is possible that the watch could be extended to the Atlanta area later today.
Click here for more details:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0017.html
Please keep an eye on the weather for later this afternoon. It is possible that the watch could be extended to the Atlanta area later today.
So It Begins...
02/11/2009 08:16
The severe weather season is here. A number of folks lost their lives in Oklahoma yesterday.
Please take severe weather SERIOUSLY.
Fortunately, it looks like the current outbreak was limited to yesterday and will not repeat itself today in the Atlanta area. We will see some storms later today, most likely in the form of a squall line. My current guess is that it will be here around rush hour this evening. The biggest threat from this squall line will be brief heavy rain and high winds.
Keep an eye on the radar later today. You should be able to pick out the squall line as it comes in from the west. Click the radar below to see the latest “live” version.
Please take severe weather SERIOUSLY.
Fortunately, it looks like the current outbreak was limited to yesterday and will not repeat itself today in the Atlanta area. We will see some storms later today, most likely in the form of a squall line. My current guess is that it will be here around rush hour this evening. The biggest threat from this squall line will be brief heavy rain and high winds.
Keep an eye on the radar later today. You should be able to pick out the squall line as it comes in from the west. Click the radar below to see the latest “live” version.
Severe Weather Tomorrow?
02/10/2009 11:56
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has issued a “slight” risk of severe weather for a broad area across the Southeast and Ohio Valley.
As of now, it looks like the main threat for us in the Atlanta area will be wind. The threat for tornados should be fairly low.
However, please pay attention to the weather situation tomorrow in case severe weather develops for our area.
P.S. - How about your weather radio? Have one? Have backup batteries? Have it programmed for your area?
As of now, it looks like the main threat for us in the Atlanta area will be wind. The threat for tornados should be fairly low.
However, please pay attention to the weather situation tomorrow in case severe weather develops for our area.
P.S. - How about your weather radio? Have one? Have backup batteries? Have it programmed for your area?
It's Never Going to SNOW in Atlanta Ever Again
02/09/2009 09:35
At least it seems that way...
When was the last time we saw measurable SNOW in Atlanta? Well, believe it or not, it wasn’t terribly long ago. The last time there was actual SNOW on the ground in Atlanta was January 19th of last year. It didn’t stick around for very long though.
Here are a few pics from that event:
Here is a time-lapse movie of the event:
So... When will it SNOW again in Atlanta? I hope soon. Things don’t look good though. Spring-like weather will continue to be the story for at least another week. We are quickly running out of time!
When was the last time we saw measurable SNOW in Atlanta? Well, believe it or not, it wasn’t terribly long ago. The last time there was actual SNOW on the ground in Atlanta was January 19th of last year. It didn’t stick around for very long though.
Here are a few pics from that event:
Here is a time-lapse movie of the event:
So... When will it SNOW again in Atlanta? I hope soon. Things don’t look good though. Spring-like weather will continue to be the story for at least another week. We are quickly running out of time!
Blank
02/08/2009 17:06
The number of spotless days for the current solar minimum is entering record territory. This is interesting as there appears to be a correlation between sunspots and climate here on Earth. Low sunspot activity seems to link with cooling of Earth’s atmosphere.
Here is a very interesting article on the current minimum and how it is unusual: Sunspot Lapse Exceeds 95% of Normal
Drought Continues
02/07/2009 10:26
Looks like drought conditions worsened a little bit over the last week.
Three month outlooks continue to show below normal precip... and with the continued La Nina conditions, we should expect the drought to continue through the spring.
Let’s pray this general pattern changes soon! La Nina needs to take a hike!
Three month outlooks continue to show below normal precip... and with the continued La Nina conditions, we should expect the drought to continue through the spring.
Let’s pray this general pattern changes soon! La Nina needs to take a hike!
Spring Has Sprung
02/06/2009 09:46
Winter is over... for now...
A major pattern shift is underway (and not the kind I like), with spring-like conditions arriving this weekend. The warmth may be interrupted briefly if “the wedge” sets up early next week, but otherwise we are stuck with above normal warmth for a while.
With the warm temps comes the potential for severe weather next week, however most of it should stay west and north of Atlanta. (But take the time NOW to think about severe weather and make sure you are prepared for the coming season!)
Enjoy this period of warmth while you can! Signs still point to winter coming back with a vengeance around Valentine’s Day. I’ll elaborate further as we get closer to the shift back to winter (which can’t come soon enough!).
Enjoy the weekend!!!
A major pattern shift is underway (and not the kind I like), with spring-like conditions arriving this weekend. The warmth may be interrupted briefly if “the wedge” sets up early next week, but otherwise we are stuck with above normal warmth for a while.
With the warm temps comes the potential for severe weather next week, however most of it should stay west and north of Atlanta. (But take the time NOW to think about severe weather and make sure you are prepared for the coming season!)
Enjoy this period of warmth while you can! Signs still point to winter coming back with a vengeance around Valentine’s Day. I’ll elaborate further as we get closer to the shift back to winter (which can’t come soon enough!).
Enjoy the weekend!!!
Severe Weather Next Week?
02/05/2009 09:43
Models seem to be showing a potent system with a negative tilt for early to mid next week.
Speaking of severe weather... February is Severe Weather Awareness Month. Please review this information:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/swaw09_main.shtml
Are you prepared for severe weather? Do you have a weather radio ready to go? Do you have a plan for your family?
Be safe!
Speaking of severe weather... February is Severe Weather Awareness Month. Please review this information:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/swaw09_main.shtml
Are you prepared for severe weather? Do you have a weather radio ready to go? Do you have a plan for your family?
Be safe!
Cold, Dry, Warm, Boring...
02/04/2009 08:56
It was very cold this morning in Midtown Atlanta. Temperature bottomed out at 17, with another cold one expected tonight. However, we warm up nicely as we go into the end of the week. Even though I hate spring and summer, I must admit I am looking forward to a cool and beautifully weekend. With temps in the low to mid 60’s and sunny, it could only be better if it were 26 with heavy SNOW.
Speaking of SNOW... Doesn’t look like we have a shot at seeing any wintery fun anytime soon. The “buzz” continues that we might enter a more favorable pattern after Valentine’s Day. I’m not too optimistic, and I’m slowly coming to accept that my favorite time of year is quickly coming to a close. Soon we will be talking about severe weather threats, and I’ll begin the long countdown to Football and Fall.
Speaking of SNOW... Doesn’t look like we have a shot at seeing any wintery fun anytime soon. The “buzz” continues that we might enter a more favorable pattern after Valentine’s Day. I’m not too optimistic, and I’m slowly coming to accept that my favorite time of year is quickly coming to a close. Soon we will be talking about severe weather threats, and I’ll begin the long countdown to Football and Fall.
Outlook for February
02/02/2009 12:36
Will February be another wasted month for winter weather? It certainly isn’t starting off with much promise.
This week shows nothing interesting outside of maybe a few flurries tomorrow. And it looks like boring will describe the weather well into next week.
Beyond Valentine’s Day, long range models have shown some potential. There are whispers that the second half of February on in to March could be “interesting”. A slightly negative NAO coupled with a recent stratospheric warming event (SSW) could open the gates to the arctic again. All we need now is a moisture flow.
Unfortunately, moisture will be hard to come by. The Pacific has not been kind to us for some time now. And this horrible, multi-year drought in the Southeast is a direct result of conditions in the Pacific. Even worse, that evil “La Nina” is rearing her ugly head again and growing in strength. I’m becoming more concerned that this is going to be another bad year for the Desert Southeast.
So... My outlook for the last half of February. I think there will be one or two threats of winter weather. But those threats will be the same old story and heartbreak. The models will tease and then take away on into March. Rinse, Repeat.
I really believed that Atlanta would see at least one winter weather event this year. However, I’m having serious doubts now.
UPDATE: Check out this depressing item:
YUCK!!!
This week shows nothing interesting outside of maybe a few flurries tomorrow. And it looks like boring will describe the weather well into next week.
Beyond Valentine’s Day, long range models have shown some potential. There are whispers that the second half of February on in to March could be “interesting”. A slightly negative NAO coupled with a recent stratospheric warming event (SSW) could open the gates to the arctic again. All we need now is a moisture flow.
Unfortunately, moisture will be hard to come by. The Pacific has not been kind to us for some time now. And this horrible, multi-year drought in the Southeast is a direct result of conditions in the Pacific. Even worse, that evil “La Nina” is rearing her ugly head again and growing in strength. I’m becoming more concerned that this is going to be another bad year for the Desert Southeast.
So... My outlook for the last half of February. I think there will be one or two threats of winter weather. But those threats will be the same old story and heartbreak. The models will tease and then take away on into March. Rinse, Repeat.
I really believed that Atlanta would see at least one winter weather event this year. However, I’m having serious doubts now.
UPDATE: Check out this depressing item:
YUCK!!!
The Big Nothing
02/01/2009 10:42
So... What happened to our big SNOW storm? Everyone has been talking about it. What happened?
It was never there. Everything was simply a fantasy in the computer models.
However, it seems that a large number of folks took it and ran with it. Everyone loves a good “Storm of the Century”. The headlines over on accuweather continued to show “Groundhog Day Monster Storm” even after it was clear that the trends did not favor it. Finally, everyone has backed out while trying to save as much face a possible.
I got caught up in the hype as much as everyone else. I’m very disappointed and let down. Oh well.
Meanwhile, there is a little light in the darkness. A small flake of hope for the ending weeks of Winter 2009. I’ll post more on that soon.
It was never there. Everything was simply a fantasy in the computer models.
However, it seems that a large number of folks took it and ran with it. Everyone loves a good “Storm of the Century”. The headlines over on accuweather continued to show “Groundhog Day Monster Storm” even after it was clear that the trends did not favor it. Finally, everyone has backed out while trying to save as much face a possible.
I got caught up in the hype as much as everyone else. I’m very disappointed and let down. Oh well.
Meanwhile, there is a little light in the darkness. A small flake of hope for the ending weeks of Winter 2009. I’ll post more on that soon.